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  1. Raptor is offline
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    08-27-2015, 04:51 PM #801
    I Still say buyback or no buy back. After Q3 we go up and we go up fast. Looking at the financials and applying what they already told us IE: tax rate 32% / amortization of settlement over next 10 Q / Lower share count and sub growth rates I say good chance of .04 Q3. Hell if you apply them to Q2 you can round it up from there. Great charts Denco. By the way Raptor is the vehicle I drive.

  2. midas360 is offline
    08-27-2015, 04:55 PM #802
    Have you looked what the previous buybacks have done for Sirius XM? What about the global economy? What happens if auto sales start declining? Have you factored that in? No one is disputing that Sirius XM hasn't had great quarters but what's really holding it back?

    Quote Originally Posted by Raptor View Post
    I Still say buyback or no buy back. After Q3 we go up and we go up fast. Looking at the financials and applying what they already told us IE: tax rate 32% / amortization of settlement over next 10 Q / Lower share count and sub growth rates I say good chance of .04 Q3. Hell if you apply them to Q2 you can round it up from there. Great charts Denco. By the way Raptor is the vehicle I drive.

  3. dm_4 is offline
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    08-27-2015, 04:55 PM #803
    Quote Originally Posted by Raptor View Post
    Here you go! This shit is funny!

    I'm the kind of person who likes everyone by default but decided to start putting my two cents in when I thought the last decent guys were thinking about leaving. I miss Red / Wolf / the original Einstein (coat Charity Dude) Hell I even like Brandon and all the others that either have completely left or just occasionally visit. I have learned a lot here about charts and day trading (Thank you). Like a lot of people I come here for advice on Sirius and trading and if its not on purpose i'm missing something but it seems like one of us likes kicking everyone here when there is a down day for trading or Sirius. Almost seems how did Denco put it "Giddy". Ding. Go DM
    Great stuff lol....Funny thing is i have no clue as of right now what siri closed at lol.

  4. user34615145 is offline
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    08-27-2015, 05:14 PM #804
    Quote Originally Posted by Raptor View Post
    Here you go! This shit is funny!

    I'm the kind of person who likes everyone by default but decided to start putting my two cents in when I thought the last decent guys were thinking about leaving. I miss Red / Wolf / the original Einstein (coat Charity Dude) Hell I even like Brandon and all the others that either have completely left or just occasionally visit. I have learned a lot here about charts and day trading (Thank you). Like a lot of people I come here for advice on Sirius and trading and if its not on purpose i'm missing something but it seems like one of us likes kicking everyone here when there is a down day for trading or Sirius. Almost seems how did Denco put it "Giddy". Ding. Go DM
    People come and people go. I've left and come back probably a dozen times - each time there seems to be the same B.S. being discussed and the same squabbles and what not. Every once and a while, like today, tempers flare and I would agree that when that happens it's usually when SIRI is not doing so well. I, for one, thought the stock did pretty well today but then, having been through so many "positive" announcements over the years than didn't amount to a hill of beans as far as price appreciation is concerned, I didn't expect much - Anyway, I don't get too caught up in who's here and who's not cause you never can tell who's just lurking - even now there are 5 members signed in and 15 "guests"....that could be anyone, including some of the folks you mentioned.
    As far as any "advice" or information to be gleaned - why would I trust a bunch of people I don't know who spend their days fighting like third graders for ANY advice? -Nope! not even advice on what to eat for lunch! Mostly I tune in for the entertainment factor and to share some market information. I've tried in the past to play the guessing game of "where is SIRI going" and/or "where is the market going" and I find it's a fools errand. Now I just share whatever info I seem to find interesting and I take whatever information that I find interesting from those that post. Some never post anything worthwhile and some post interesting things all the time.

    As far as the name calling and such, well it seems to me that Midas has been on the receiving end more than not. It reminds me of middle school bullies picking on the kid everyone decides isn't part of the "in-crowd" because of the way he's dresses or his haircut or the way he talks or whatever. I've watched over the years on various SIRI related sites (and it's been at least 7 years...so I guess by that standard I have rights too) where he has been called every name in the book, been threatened, had his real name and address published (we all know his name), had a PICTURE of his HOUSE published and all because his views didn't fit with that of the crowd.... At the same time I've learned that most of the time he's kidding around. He doesn't take himself too seriously and I certainly don't either. Sure, I called him a "Profane" name the other night in jest...he did the same back to me.....perhaps it's just our way of saying "chill out" but if you were offended I can see why. But before you pounce and say "That's it...that's what I'm talking about!" take a look and ask yourself if you haven't been guilty of a little inappropriate behavior from time to time yourself.
    Perhaps everyone needs to just chill a bit.
    S'all I'm sayin'
    Last edited by user34615145; 08-27-2015 at 05:16 PM.

  5. Raptor is offline
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    08-27-2015, 05:26 PM #805
    Quote Originally Posted by midas360 View Post
    Have you looked what the previous buybacks have done for Sirius XM?

    Yes and I have studied the financials of every Quarter for the past 5 years. The buybacks are playing out perfectly lowering the share count at the cheapest possible price. Its not the buyback holding the price down it is management holding the EPS flat for the past 5 years. First the run up to .02 without paying taxes and then holding it there while refinancing (FEES)/ showing taxes paid when they are not being paid / Purchase Agero/ Dividend/ Tax whatever in the Q1 / settlement Q2 /

    What about the global economy? Bullshit Question when they already accomplished all of the above in the worst economy in 80 years
    What happens if auto sales start declining?
    Used car sales will soon start to affect the Subs more than new sales / If you look at the penetration % escalation and the auto recovery sales year over year and factor in the average time a 1st owner holds a car we are entering into huge sub #'s. They never really fell last year like all the reports it just took a year for the GM deal to change over.
    Have you factored that in? Yes No one is disputing that Sirius XM hasn't had great quarters but what's really holding it back?
    The genius's that purchased the 40% of the company and put this plan together years ago. I wish I knew the next moves but ......

    Sorry answer mixed in above

  6. midas360 is offline
    08-27-2015, 05:33 PM #806
    Look... I get it. John Malone and Greg Maffaei are geniuses. No one is disputing that. What I don't understand is these guys are no Mel Karmazin. They don't care about the Sirius XM shareholders. They tried to take us out at $3.68. At first, I was happy they didn't take the deal but after seeing them buying back shares and seeing their % ownership going up and the stock price just sit, how does that help Sirius XM shareholders? They've done these buybacks before. What has the stock done?????????? These guys do not have our best interest (at least I can't see it). Explain why you think this is good for shareholders?????

    Quote Originally Posted by Raptor View Post
    The genius's that purchased the 40% of the company and put this plan together years ago. I wish I knew the next moves but ......

    Sorry answer mixed in above

  7. dm_4 is offline
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    Joined: Dec 2012 Location: Boston, Ma Posts: 3,029
    08-27-2015, 05:36 PM #807
    Quote Originally Posted by user34615145 View Post
    People come and people go. I've left and come back probably a dozen times - each time there seems to be the same B.S. being discussed and the same squabbles and what not. Every once and a while, like today, tempers flare and I would agree that when that happens it's usually when SIRI is not doing so well. I, for one, thought the stock did pretty well today but then, having been through so many "positive" announcements over the years than didn't amount to a hill of beans as far as price appreciation is concerned, I didn't expect much - Anyway, I don't get too caught up in who's here and who's not cause you never can tell who's just lurking - even now there are 5 members signed in and 15 "guests"....that could be anyone, including some of the folks you mentioned.
    As far as any "advice" or information to be gleaned - why would I trust a bunch of people I don't know who spend their days fighting like third graders for ANY advice? -Nope! not even advice on what to eat for lunch! Mostly I tune in for the entertainment factor and to share some market information. I've tried in the past to play the guessing game of "where is SIRI going" and/or "where is the market going" and I find it's a fools errand. Now I just share whatever info I seem to find interesting and I take whatever information that I find interesting from those that post. Some never post anything worthwhile and some post interesting things all the time.

    As far as the name calling and such, well it seems to me that Midas has been on the receiving end more than not. It reminds me of middle school bullies picking on the kid everyone decides isn't part of the "in-crowd" because of the way he's dresses or his haircut or the way he talks or whatever. I've watched over the years on various SIRI related sites (and it's been at least 7 years...so I guess by that standard I have rights too) where he has been called every name in the book, been threatened, had his real name and address published (we all know his name), had a PICTURE of his HOUSE published and all because his views didn't fit with that of the crowd.... At the same time I've learned that most of the time he's kidding around. He doesn't take himself too seriously and I certainly don't either. Sure, I called him a "Profane" name the other night in jest...he did the same back to me.....perhaps it's just our way of saying "chill out" but if you were offended I can see why. But before you pounce and say "That's it...that's what I'm talking about!" take a look and ask yourself if you haven't been guilty of a little inappropriate behavior from time to time yourself.
    Perhaps everyone needs to just chill a bit.
    S'all I'm sayin'
    So let me get this straight...you are suggesting midas is a victim here? User to midas defense....nope didn't see that coming. One in the same?
    Last edited by dm_4; 08-27-2015 at 08:20 PM.

  8. Raptor is offline
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    08-27-2015, 05:45 PM #808

    Cool

    Quote Originally Posted by midas360 View Post
    Look... I get it. John Malone and Greg Maffaei are geniuses. No one is disputing that. What I don't understand is these guys are no Mel Karmazin. They don't care about the Sirius XM shareholders.


    They are sirius share holders. Their % goes up so does mine.

    They tried to take us out at $3.68.
    I never thought this was a real offer and just more for the neg news guys to publish and hold the price down. Buybacks or at least the successful ones run at least two years and the price stays stagnant. What do you think was going on at Netflix for 2 years?

    At first, I was happy they didn't take the deal but after seeing them buying back shares and seeing their % ownership going up and the stock price just sit, how does that help Sirius XM shareholders? The patient ones will get their reward!



    They've done these buybacks before. What has the stock done?????????? Exactly what long share holders want!!!

    These guys do not have our best interest (at least I can't see it). You will if you are long.

    Explain why you think this is good for shareholders?????
    I believe we are about to find out.

  9. midas360 is offline
    08-27-2015, 05:54 PM #809
    Is this a "gut feeling" or are you "guessing" or what? I am not trying to be a jerk here. I am truly interested in what you are seeing. It's ok if you say "It's a gut feeling based on last qtr's earnings and what I've seen in the past." I get it! I have no idea what is going on and why the stock isn't going up. I am with you. I think it should be up too.

    Edit: Hell... i will buy a stock strictly on Level II activity. I don't need to look at a chart. I don't need to know what is going on.

    Quote Originally Posted by Raptor View Post
    I believe we are about to find out.
    Last edited by midas360; 08-27-2015 at 06:18 PM.

  10. Raptor is offline
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    08-27-2015, 07:49 PM #810
    Quote Originally Posted by midas360 View Post
    Is this a "gut feeling" or are you "guessing" or what? I am not trying to be a jerk here. I am truly interested in what you are seeing. It's ok if you say "It's a gut feeling based on last qtr's earnings and what I've seen in the past." I get it! I have no idea what is going on and why the stock isn't going up. I am with you. I think it should be up too.

    Edit: Hell... i will buy a stock strictly on Level II activity. I don't need to look at a chart. I don't need to know what is going on.
    I'm not guessing but I did feel like a fool when I did not see the last two out of left field items that held EPS down last two quarters. I have torn apart their financials every Quarter for the last five years. Watched how one by one they took all of the balance sheet items / horrible debt deals /refinance / all metrics improving at an unbelievable rate / took a company and turned it into a cash flow machine and still have a mountain of losses to protect against taxes. Do they have anything left up their sleeve maybe but I can't find it. Two clues that lead me to believe that it's soon is that they publicly stated their tax rate going forward is X and the amortization of the settlement going forward over the next 10Q's. Why do this if they wanted to hold it down for another quarter? I've ran their financials past my in house accountants and outside accountants who certify my company's financials and asked them if they see the same company that I do hidden to the untrained eye. Believe me I am no wall street Guru but I do know how to run a business and read financials. I would not have ridden 6 figure swings if I did not believe I am right.