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  1. MUSCLE13 is offline
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    01-18-2015, 01:19 PM #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA View Post
    Remember LMCA has been buying back during this period as well.
    And so is every single big media company and a ton of other S&P 500 companies. They are all trying to drive their stock price up with buybacks. And have been rather successful at it for a few years. Comcast, Time Warner, Fox, CBS, Viacom, Disney etc are all in the midst of ongoing big buybacks.

    As Sirius stock goes, so goes Liberty Media stock. Nobody can argue that fact. Sirius makes up such a huge portion of Liberty Media. Anybody that thinks Malone wants Sirius stock to be held down is fooling themselves.

    I think Meyer has done a great job running the business. But the stock hasn't responded under him and nobody compares to Mel. If Mel ever comes back to media I see 2 avenues. A possible Sirius RMT. Or a possible Time Warner move on a CBS combo. In both cases you would have a NY based media company with an independent board/ no controlling shareholder. It may never happen. But I think there is a chance for both happening in the next year or so. Sirius and Time Warner are both logical moves.

    I also believe that since Charter lost to Comcast on the big TWC deal there is no need now for Liberty to bring Sirius into the fold to fund a big cash and debt move for Liberty's cable business. There is nothing out there as big as TWC to acquire in cable and I believe that is why Liberty dropped its bid for Sirius. They were looking to help Charter out on TWC. Charter eventually worked out a very good deal but a much smaller piece than they were after because Comcast moved in. So Sirius' cash flow was not required for the smaller cable deal, and thus there was no reason to raise any bids for the company.
    Last edited by MUSCLE13; 01-18-2015 at 01:39 PM.

  2. MUSCLE13 is offline
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    01-18-2015, 01:51 PM #12
    I also believe that Mel going on CNBC saying that he would invest his own money in a Time Warner CBS merger, combined with the fact that Fox made a bid on Time Warner in 2014, points the investment community towards big content consolidation. On CNBC Richard Parsons also said he thought content consolidation is coming a day after Mel said it. And he used to run Time Warner.

    2014 was the year that distribution made it's move - Comcast TWC, AT&T DirecTV. After those deals close this year, I think Big Media Content will respond in kind. I think we get a repeat of the 90s. And when you think about it, that's exactly what happened in Media Distribution last year. 1990s consolidation is back. It's been awhile.
    Last edited by MUSCLE13; 01-18-2015 at 01:58 PM.

  3. MUSCLE13 is offline
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    01-18-2015, 08:15 PM #13
    This is great - Crockett thinks Howard renews with Sirius and Pandora is going to be forced into a subscription focused model. I heard his target for Sirius stayed at $5

    FBR Capital is updating its model on Sirius XM (Nasdaq: SIRI) after the company announced that it ended 2014 with 27.3 million subscribers, reporting 1.75 million net subscriber additions in the year, exceeding the company's increased guidance of 1.5 million net additions. Self-pay net additions in 2014 were 1.44 million, exceeding the company's 2014 guidance of 1.25 million and resulting in ending self-pay subscriptions of over 22.5 million.

    Analyst Barton Crockett noted:

    2015 guidance. Sirius XM is introducing 2015 guidance for total net subscriber adds of 1.2 million, revenue of $4.4 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $1.6 billion, and free cash flow of $1.25 billion. The subscriber growth guidance is better than our formerly published estimate for 1.07 million. With a solid new car sales trajectory and growing penetration of used cars, a positive reception to the new Joel Osteen channel, we are taking our 2015 subscriber growth estimate up to 1.3 million. Our revenue, EBITDA, and free cash flow projections remain slightly above guidance. The history of conservative guidance provides a measure of comfort for our estimates.
    The terminal value debate. For Sirius, the stock swings on debate about the terminal value, which is heavily influenced by subscriber trends. Bears will focus on guidance for a slowdown in subscriber growth. But we note slowing car sales, and the fact that as subscribers grow, churn becomes a bigger headwind. Plus, the company's recent history argues for the ability to beat guidance.
    Reasons for macro optimism. We believe that demand for subscription entertainment services among broader consumer segments is growing because of new app/smartphone technologies, perhaps benefiting from lower gas prices, while other consumables, like apparel, may not be. Sirius, with a solid app, can be a beneficiary from this trend. We also see a cost structure reset to much higher music rights fees as a likely outcome of Pandora's upcoming CRB process. If we are right, Pandora could be forced to switch its model to a subscription focus, like Spotify, which would be positive for Sirius, as the scale leader in subscription radio. We continue to see high probability that Howard Stern renews.


    http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst.../10146623.html

  4. MUSCLE13 is offline
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    01-18-2015, 08:26 PM #14
    LOL What happens to Pandora's stock if Crockett is correct and Pandora becomes subscription based? Man Pandora could be in bad bad trouble. I know Crockett has an $11 target. I just don't see any unique content there that would make people pay.

  5. just sirius is offline
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    01-18-2015, 10:40 PM #15
    Sirius and LMCA will move when Malone gives the signal...and not before then!! Sure...there will probably be some price appreciation as they cont with the buybacks!! Malone is a very patient man...with the cont buyback of both Sirius and LMCA shares...Malone knows that his $$ are increasing with the increased % of his Sirius and LMCA holdings!

    JS

  6. MUSCLE13 is offline
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    01-18-2015, 11:07 PM #16
    Quote Originally Posted by just sirius View Post
    Sirius and LMCA will move when Malone gives the signal...and not before then!! Sure...there will probably be some price appreciation as they cont with the buybacks!! Malone is a very patient man...with the cont buyback of both Sirius and LMCA shares...Malone knows that his $$ are increasing with the increased % of his Sirius and LMCA holdings!

    JS
    Malone has done stock buybacks on his stocks for decades. You think this is something new?? And a majority of the rest of the stock market is doing buybacks as well. That strategy is to reduce outstanding shares, thus increasing earnings per share and causing your stock price to rise. Malone doesn't control the stock market and he has no control whether Sirius stock goes up or down. Since 90% of Malone's net worth is in his companies' stock it is quite obvious he wants all his stocks to go up. Go make up your manipulation stories with the rest of your yahoos here. Have a blast. It's a great replacement for doing actual analysis of stock valuations, isn't it? Go play casino games...... Bye Guys!

  7. dm_4 is offline
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    01-19-2015, 12:35 PM #17
    Quote Originally Posted by just sirius View Post
    Sirius and LMCA will move when Malone gives the signal...and not before then!! Sure...there will probably be some price appreciation as they cont with the buybacks!! Malone is a very patient man...with the cont buyback of both Sirius and LMCA shares...Malone knows that his $$ are increasing with the increased % of his Sirius and LMCA holdings!

    JS
    Agree 100%

  8. dm_4 is offline
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    01-19-2015, 12:36 PM #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA View Post
    Unstable...
    Ya think?

  9. just sirius is offline
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    01-19-2015, 06:04 PM #19
    Unfortunately that douchebag will be back!!!

    JS

  10. just sirius is offline
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    01-19-2015, 06:06 PM #20
    I sure as hell hope he doesnt come back as CEO! That over the hill blue hair is the one who gave...flat out gave...Sirius to Malone!! He needs to stay in retirement!! He did us no favors!!

    JS

    Quote Originally Posted by MUSCLE13 View Post
    I went back and checked the 2013 SEC filings.

    http://investor.siriusxm.com/secfili...591&CIK=908937

    Could a possible RMT spin entice Mel to come back as CEO? Ya never know. Liberty is always in motion. They have spun multiple times before. Just a guess.......

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