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  1. denco1 is offline
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    01-09-2015, 04:25 PM #321
    Ok, I'm going to change my prediction.

    $47.90 EOY 2015 absorbed by MaloneCo as LMCK stock

  2. dm_4 is offline
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    01-09-2015, 04:29 PM #322
    Denco....LMCA/K trading lockstep again today and could close at same price as each other.....

  3. Steiny is offline
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    01-09-2015, 04:31 PM #323
    [QUOTE=dm_4;87511]Last hour to get your picks in

    Hey just a friendly reminder for old members here and new ones....we have a guess the end of year siri price target contest going on. Grand prize is bragging rights Anyway if anyone who has not already given a shot at it and would like to please post your prediction by end of today's trading day so i can update (feel free to change your picks as well). After the close today this will be the final list. ty. glta

    So far:

    Quote Originally Posted by dm_4 View Post
    2015 eoy predictions.

    dm_4............................$4.44
    beehaus........................$5.25
    S.F...............................$4.18
    62 Olds.........................$4.56
    Wolf.............................$4.18
    Osprey.........................$4.23
    bdp..............................$4.79
    Nazareth......................$4.12
    siriustimes....................$4.21
    bcoz............................$4.30
    Garcar.........................$4.36
    Denco1........................$3.51
    Waldo.........................$3.86
    JR999.........................$4.13
    Raptor........................$7.00
    njbones......................$4.15

    I'ts for chits n grins ...so relax lol....life is short
    I'll give it a shot... let's say 5B shares outstanding at year-end 2015, 1.25B FCF is $0.25/share X 20 multiple = $5. That would be my high-end. Low end I would say 14 multiple = $3.50... let's say somewhere in the middle as an average - $4.25. I am going to discount this some because I think there will still be some uncertainty left with investors due to LMCA's shenanigans. So my final number is $3.95 - about 7.5% discount to $4.25.

  4. denco1 is offline
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    01-09-2015, 04:36 PM #324
    Quote Originally Posted by dm_4 View Post
    Denco....LMCA/K trading lockstep again today and could close at same price as each other.....

    Noticed that......too weird. Something has to be up.....please MaloneCo.........no more name calling or Donkey temptations
    Last edited by denco1; 01-09-2015 at 04:47 PM.

  5. denco1 is offline
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    01-09-2015, 04:43 PM #325
    On the CITI conference Maffei made reference to the discount to NAV AGAIN which basically insinuates or SCREAMS LOUDLY that LMCK is undervalued and the "better deal" between the 2 EDIT - according to MAffei--. Well then Greg/MaloneCo puppet master #2, why not combine the 2 entities in order to get rid of that discount sooner rather than later. It seems to be the only way as you have been complaining about the NAV discount for years.
    Last edited by denco1; 01-09-2015 at 04:49 PM.

  6. MUSCLE13 is offline
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    01-09-2015, 04:44 PM #326
    [QUOTE=Steiny;87514]
    Quote Originally Posted by dm_4 View Post
    Last hour to get your picks in

    Hey just a friendly reminder for old members here and new ones....we have a guess the end of year siri price target contest going on. Grand prize is bragging rights Anyway if anyone who has not already given a shot at it and would like to please post your prediction by end of today's trading day so i can update (feel free to change your picks as well). After the close today this will be the final list. ty. glta

    So far:



    I'll give it a shot... let's say 5B shares outstanding at year-end 2015, 1.25B FCF is $0.25/share X 20 multiple = $5. That would be my high-end. Low end I would say 14 multiple = $3.50... let's say somewhere in the middle as an average - $4.25. I am going to discount this some because I think there will still be some uncertainty left with investors due to LMCA's shenanigans. So my final number is $3.95 - about 7.5% discount to $4.25.
    Steiny you are going with 1.25 Billion FCF in 2015??? LOL That is ludicrous. All the analysts are coming out above Sirius initial estimates. Show me one that is in line. Show me one!
    Last edited by MUSCLE13; 01-09-2015 at 04:46 PM.

  7. Steiny is offline
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    01-09-2015, 05:10 PM #327
    [QUOTE=MUSCLE13;87518]
    Quote Originally Posted by Steiny View Post

    Steiny you are going with 1.25 Billion FCF in 2015??? LOL That is ludicrous. All the analysts are coming out above Sirius initial estimates. Show me one that is in line. Show me one!
    I'm using SIRI's numbers for now - I know they are low-balled but I like to be more conservative in my PPS estimates. And this is a year-end estimate, not what the actual EV should be. I'll do that once I see 2014 YTD numbers.


    The company also issued 2015 guidance for net subscriber additions, revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow:



    · Net subscriber additions of approximately 1.2 million,

    · Revenue of approximately $4.4 billion,

    · Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.6 billion, and

    · Free cash flow of approximately $1.25 billion.

  8. MUSCLE13 is offline
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    01-09-2015, 05:14 PM #328
    [QUOTE=Steiny;87521]
    Quote Originally Posted by MUSCLE13 View Post

    I'm using SIRI's numbers for now - I know they are low-balled but I like to be more conservative in my PPS estimates. And this is a year-end estimate, not what the actual EV should be. I'll do that once I see 2014 YTD numbers.


    The company also issued 2015 guidance for net subscriber additions, revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow:



    · Net subscriber additions of approximately 1.2 million,

    · Revenue of approximately $4.4 billion,

    · Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.6 billion, and

    · Free cash flow of approximately $1.25 billion.
    Again I haven't seen 1 analyst in line with that number. Have you? Everybody is coming out above except you.

  9. Steiny is offline
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    01-09-2015, 05:18 PM #329
    [QUOTE=MUSCLE13;87523]
    Quote Originally Posted by Steiny View Post

    Again I haven't seen 1 analyst in line with that number. Have you? Everybody is coming out above except you.
    When I do a full EV analysis for 2015, I'll come up with my own FCF and EBITDA estimates which will be higher than this. Will post this up when I get around to it in the next couple of weeks. I like to estimate each line item out for the year and come up with my own estimates.

  10. Steiny is offline
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    01-09-2015, 05:57 PM #330
    Quote Originally Posted by dm_4 View Post
    Ok so here is the final list. Just to make things a lil more interesting if any one nails the price spot on....I will mail you a 20 spot. God i hope Raptor wins! (wolf/SF split). Here is hoping that siri treats us much better this year than last...GLTA!



    2015 eoy predictions.

    dm_4............................$4.44
    beehaus........................$5.25
    S.F...............................$4.18
    62 Olds.........................$4.56
    Wolf.............................$4.18
    Osprey.........................$4.23
    bdp..............................$4.79
    Nazareth......................$4.12
    siriustimes....................$4.21
    bcoz............................$4.30
    Garcar.........................$4.36
    Denco1........................$47.90 EOY 2015 absorbed by MaloneCo as LMCK stock
    Waldo..........................$3.86
    JR999..........................$4.13
    Raptor.........................$7.00
    njbones.......................$4.15

    I'ts for chits n grins ...so relax lol....life is short
    Add me in for $3.95....

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