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  1. dm_4 is offline
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    Joined: Dec 2012 Location: Boston, Ma Posts: 3,029
    01-07-2015, 11:18 PM #201
    Know it all...think we have spent enough time on my comment to midas. Nobody likes "told ya so" types or insincere types and that's exactly what midas has been since October. He stated today "its frustrating as hell" that siri did not move today. Why would it be so frustrating when you have declared you own no stock in siri and are glad you don't. Makes zero sense. My reply was simply "good thing you dont have any skin in the game" meaning it would prob feel a thousand times more frustrating for ya. Bottom line i dont like a piss ant who has no skin in the game acting like he cares seeing siri go to 5 bucks and bellyaching when in he is dying to see it go to 2.75. I am much more tolerant of "told ya so types" when they have tens of thousands of dollars worth of skin in, especially if they are correct. Sorry my "be glad you have no skin in the game" comment to midas struck a cord with you. Not sure why it would, it really shouldn't. Maybe you are one of his cheezits members, who knows. Speaking of the trash talking you mention of....have your read the last three months of his post? may want to send your trash talkn advice his way. God knows he has slung his fair of shit at me. Feel free to put me on ignore...wont feel offended one bit here. Anyway....think we have said all we need to say on this...feel free to have the last word...but im done.

    I like pro ball better than college. i can relate to it better for some reason. Love watching a good college game tho. Did not watch many this season. Oh well...always next year
    Last edited by dm_4; 01-07-2015 at 11:25 PM.

  2. dm_4 is offline
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    Joined: Dec 2012 Location: Boston, Ma Posts: 3,029
    01-08-2015, 12:26 AM #202
    SF who is that in your avatar picture? Was that you back in the day?

  3. Limit5Bass is offline
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    Joined: Nov 2012 Location: TrendyStockCharts.com Posts: 587
    01-08-2015, 12:32 AM #203
    When the charts talk, I usually listen.....

    Nasdaq was flashing pullback signs...

    EDIT: And merry christmas and happy new year to everyone! It's been a while since I've popped in to say hi

  4. midas360 is offline
    01-08-2015, 12:55 AM #204
    Hey LB!!! Long time man. Hope you are doing well. Happy New Year! Have you done any fishing or has it been too cold? You are the master of charts for sure.

    Quote Originally Posted by Limit5Bass View Post
    When the charts talk, I usually listen.....

    Nasdaq was flashing pullback signs...

    EDIT: And merry christmas and happy new year to everyone! It's been a while since I've popped in to say hi

  5. dm_4 is offline
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    Joined: Dec 2012 Location: Boston, Ma Posts: 3,029
    01-08-2015, 02:00 AM #205
    Howard Stern employment speculation, blah blah blah

    http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/new...d-stern-761540

  6. midas360 is offline
    01-08-2015, 08:41 AM #206
    Good morning everyone... futures looking good for the open. I hope everyone does well today! GL!

  7. denco1 is offline
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    Joined: Nov 2012 Location: Shortie's A$$ Posts: 2,056
    01-08-2015, 09:16 AM #207
    Quote Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA View Post
    Avatar is me most days. Take it for what that's worth
    How's Ted these days

    EDIT:...or is it Bill
    Last edited by denco1; 01-08-2015 at 09:18 AM.

  8. dm_4 is offline
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    01-08-2015, 09:16 AM #208
    Quote Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA View Post
    I want to expand on this. (I thought I did earlier but don't see it... who knows... I know I typed it...)

    Anyways taking the same formula above you can pull it out through 2020. This assumes the exact same pace of buybacks which means increasingly using cash and less use of debt. It's doable... but possibly not to the extremes I'll illustrate.

    Anyways so what have they bought back to date? 20% or so? So by early 2015 expect 30% at or near current pricing with the targets outlined above.

    Pull it out further and ASSUMING STABLE SHARE PRICE for the buyback and FLAT repurchases (there is room to ramp repurchases with ramping share price but doesn't seem needed yet).

    2016 Jan could repurchase 40%. Top end $7 bottom end $4.67
    2017 Jan could repurchase 50%. *IF* LMCA is looking to sell back then it comes in 2016 / 2017 I would think. Top $9 bottom $6.
    2018 Jan could repurchase 60%. This is pivot area IMO. They start to build cash most likely. Top $12 bottom $8.
    2019 Jan could repurchase 70%. Unlikely but two or three years at the end don't matter as much on repurchases. it is the repurchases TODAY and how much they offload early that affects down the road valuations. Top $17 bottom $11.33. And 2020 gets a $16 - $20+ target range.

    Huge margin of error as it compounds as the years go out, and expectations are optimisitic but not unobtainable.

    Dealing with a parabola here as I outlined at the beginning of the buyback. Still applies. If you go back to first year algebra and dig out linear appreciation vs. parabolic you'll see how time affects the parabola in comparison.

    Do I expect it to hit $20 by 2020? Not reasonably. The price has to crack here at some point due to the buybacks so they will become less effective (not ineffective, just not as effective as buying at $3.33 when SIRI is actually worth more). At some point it will become near impossible to keep the EPS at 2/3 cents. IMO once that becomes difficult they let the cap off, talk the stock up, buy back only if / when the SP drops at the lower end of the range, and build cash in the meantime / pay off debt. Any cash LMCA needs sell back to SIRI or borrow with SIRI as collateral.

    Let's say SIRI is able to buy back 30% at average $3.60 before this happens and over the next year the stock rockets and hits the high range of $7+ into 2017. That 30% they bought average of $3.60 for what, a couple billion shares? That investment rolls back in on the double and you just saved $7billion vs. if you tried to buyback today.

    Again it's all fast and loose numbers but the BASIC idea is there. Takes time. Some probably don't want to wait and I don't blame them as you can flip into and out of hotter names and make 100% in months vs. watching paint dry and waiting in SIRI. The more of those that sell the faster this can go. Can always buy back in if you are confident in your timing and aren't trapped in something else a mistake may have been made on.

    This also assumes LMCA doesn't merge in with SIRI... same basic idea applies if they do but some things could be a little bit different. Don't want to speculate on that unless it happens.
    Lets just break 3.50 first

  9. dm_4 is offline
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    01-08-2015, 09:17 AM #209
    Quote Originally Posted by midas360 View Post
    Good morning everyone... futures looking good for the open. I hope everyone does well today! GL!
    Go SIRI!!

  10. MUSCLE13 is offline
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    01-08-2015, 10:47 AM #210
    Jessica pounded the table on Sirius again this morning. $5 target

    http://ragingbull.com/forum/topic/1020262

    Mel spoke on CNBC suggesting CBS Time Warner merger. Smart guy. I happen to be invested in both

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102320949?__s...&doc=102320949

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