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  1. dm_4 is offline
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    Joined: Dec 2012 Location: Boston, Ma Posts: 2,867
    01-06-2015, 12:17 PM #121
    [QUOTE=dm_4;87113]2015 eoy predictions.

    dm_4............................$4.44
    beehaus........................$5.25
    S.F...............................$4.18
    62 Olds.........................$4.56
    Wolf.............................$4.18
    Osprey.........................$4.23
    bdp..............................$4.79
    Nazareth......................$4.12
    siriustimes....................$4.21
    bcoz............................$4.30
    Garcar.........................$4.36
    Denco.........................$3.51
    Waldo*.......................$3.86

    I'ts for chits n grins ...so relax lol....life is short

    *presuming this is actually waldo and not midas and/or they are not guessing/speaking for one another...can never tell with these two
    Last edited by dm_4; 01-06-2015 at 12:24 PM.

  2. Wolf Child is offline
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    Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 887
    01-06-2015, 12:25 PM #122
    200 day= 0 support

    remember when Ralphie dropped the hubcap full of lug nuts on the side of the road?

  3. dm_4 is offline
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    Joined: Dec 2012 Location: Boston, Ma Posts: 2,867
    01-06-2015, 12:26 PM #123
    Quote Originally Posted by Wolf Child View Post
    200 day= 0 support

    remember when Ralphie dropped the hubcap full of lug nuts on the side of the road?
    you're not really surprised are ya?

  4. dm_4 is offline
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    Joined: Dec 2012 Location: Boston, Ma Posts: 2,867
    01-06-2015, 12:30 PM #124
    Quote Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA View Post
    "Faulkner you're an option trader. What are your thoughts?"

    Regarding the credit spread?

    Taking the reverse and buying a call spread would be better. No margin requirements, lower max loss, higher max gain. Yeah it's not a credit spread and is a debit spread but 100 contracts is like what, $1,400 debit on the call side? Not talking big money here.

    Really depends on range of value expected and perceptions of risk. Given my expectation of value for SIRI in a year I wouldn't buy puts under $4.50... so I don't even think a spread is necessary. Much under $4 in Jan 2016 should be undervalued and taking possession of shares there would be minimal risk.

    Then again I look at this as an investment with a range of value and not a trade. I know I say that all the time... but it's a different approach.

    Pure trade the credit spread isn't bad but SIRI isn't all that attractive, in my opinion, for option "trades". Share price is low enough just play around in range on the shares.

    Optimal positioning right now looks to be long $3 calls or going with a $3 / $4 spread.

    Are you interested in investing in SIRI or something?
    I thought little man had you on ignore???

  5. KnowitALL is offline
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    Joined: Jan 2015 Posts: 26
    01-06-2015, 12:31 PM #125
    Quote Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA View Post
    "Faulkner you're an option trader. What are your thoughts?"

    Regarding the credit spread?

    Taking the reverse and buying a call spread would be better. No margin requirements, lower max loss, higher max gain. Yeah it's not a credit spread and is a debit spread but 100 contracts is like what, $1,400 debit on the call side? Not talking big money here.

    Really depends on range of value expected and perceptions of risk. Given my expectation of value for SIRI in a year I wouldn't buy puts under $4.50... so I don't even think a spread is necessary. Much under $4 in Jan 2016 should be undervalued and taking possession of shares there would be minimal risk.

    Then again I look at this as an investment with a range of value and not a trade. I know I say that all the time... but it's a different approach.

    Pure trade the credit spread isn't bad but SIRI isn't all that attractive, in my opinion, for option "trades". Share price is low enough just play around in range on the shares.

    Optimal positioning right now looks to be long $3 calls or going with a $3 / $4 spread.

    Are you interested in investing in SIRI or something?
    Your example of the call debit spread above is another way to go, depending on how you like to operate. There is not "right" or "wrong" way....My personal experience is that every single time I go long a call, it expires worthless on me. I just can't seem to get the combination of the strike or the expiration right (clearly, I don't "knowitall"....it's a tongue in cheek reference). So I've gravitated to taking the other side of the trade, and using puts. I like having money in my pocket from the premium while I wait to see how the trade plays out. But it's a matter of personal preference, and you seem to prefer going long calls, which means you've probably had a lot more success with them than I have.
    With regard to using a pseudonym vs. real name, again it's my preference. I'm not trying to "hide behind a mask" nor am I using a false name. I use a handle that is obviously not a real name. It's not about deception, it's about protection. You said yourself you've had to call police to deal with people harassing you which is something I prefer to avoid and that's my prerogative. You've chosen to share quite a bit about yourself online and that's your prerogative. I have no way of knowing of course, but I suspect your rather cavalier attitude towards sharing personal information might change if wasn't just yourself that you needed to watch out for. What if you had a family - kids and a wife to protect? Like you said, there's a lot of crazy idiots out in cyber-world and someone might just be crazy enough to stalk me or my family or worse if they take issue with me over something silly like my avatar or name or some comment and so decide to take their pound of flesh from my flesh. What if someone decides to try this put-spread I tossed out there and it doesn't work out and they get to thinking that they'd never even heard of such a thing before I brought it up....so they decide it's my fault they lost money and they come looking to get even and decide that it would be a good idea to grab my kid waiting at the school bus stop and demand ransom? No thanks. Sure, with enough digging your average cyber-sleuth can probably uncover some info but it's not the average dude I'm worried about, and even then I see no reason to make it easy for anyone. Anyway, that's just my two cent worth. I can't and don't speak for others but that's the reason I use a pseudonym....and as far as the handle goes, I think Charles said it best: "I don't believe Wolf Child is born of wolves and I assume knowitALL doesn't know it all. There is siriustimes, siriusrocks, siriusroadkill, I don't think siriusstagnation is any different"

  6. Wolf Child is offline
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    01-06-2015, 12:32 PM #126
    ya know dm...... I gotta say I am. We are trading at april 2013 prices. Converts done, 2014 buybacks presumably done as well, tax loss selling season over, 16.5M autos etc etc..... a little surprised. A week ago we were above the 50, 100 & 200 day as well as closing above the 3.50X. Might as well have been wet toilet paper.

    edit: I just bought my last lot @ 3.35 (bottom of the BB)
    Last edited by Wolf Child; 01-06-2015 at 12:36 PM.

  7. midas360 is offline
    01-06-2015, 12:36 PM #127
    Is this a EOY price target OR sell target or what? Let's be clear because I would hate for someone to change their "prediction" when 12/31/2015 rolls around. Also, being that it is a EOY of target, does it count if it hits anytime during the year? Again, lets be clear on this. Whoever did this contest didn't put a lot of thought into it. It must be for just chits and grins or something.

    Quote Originally Posted by waldo29 View Post
    DM, throw mine in there if you can stand it. 3.86 for a 10.28% return off of the 12/31/2014 3.50 close. I assume 'Price is Right' rules are in place for this?

    You may have also heard I also have a low for the year. The ex-CBH's are also hanging on it (imo), they lost their FCF (interest payments) and would want to see the companies next interpretation on future growth to see if their ROC (or ROI) is worth hanging on to their new shares in exchange for taking on higher risk in the capital structure. There are a lot of opportunities out there, we want them to hang around and 'lock' those shares up as tight as LM's. Unimpressive guidance means they are mor elikely to take their capital elsewhere. Latest for us to have their answer within the next 30 to 40 days. The company needs to get off the ball and not low ball growth this time around. This range is getting old for a lot of people.


    dm_4............................$4.44
    beehaus........................$5.25
    S.F...............................$4.18
    62 Olds.........................$4.56
    Wolf.............................$4.18
    Osprey.........................$4.23
    bdp..............................$4.79
    Nazareth......................$4.12
    siriustimes...................$4.21
    bcoz...........................$4.30
    Garcar........................$4.36
    I'ts for chits n grins ...so relax lol....life is short

  8. midas360 is offline
    01-06-2015, 12:40 PM #128
    You my good man, nailed it! Kudos to you!!

    Quote Originally Posted by siriustimes View Post
    EOY 2015 4.21

    P&F chart has a Double bottom breakdown with bearish price objective of 3.35

  9. dm_4 is offline
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    Joined: Dec 2012 Location: Boston, Ma Posts: 2,867
    01-06-2015, 12:41 PM #129
    Quote Originally Posted by Wolf Child View Post
    ya know dm...... I gotta say I am. We are trading at april 2013 prices. Converts done, 2014 buybacks presumably done as well, tax loss selling season over, 16.5M autos etc etc..... a little surprised. A week ago we were above the 50, 100 & 200 day as well as closing above the 3.50X. Might as well have been wet toilet paper.

    edit: I just bought my last lot @ 3.35 (bottom of the BB)
    Well i think they still have close to a few billion $ left for additional buybacks. Only makes sense at least to me to keep them going and for me provides the only rational explanation why the price is all of a sudden back to were we are now. They can buy them here now at these prices and lower before the mid feb cc, which i would expect a nice lil run at that time based on auto numbers.

    I am gonna wait to buy my next lot wolf. They have a lot of time left to take it to low 3.20'/3teen area before now and cc. Rather we didn't get there....but nice buying opp if we do. gl man.
    Last edited by dm_4; 01-06-2015 at 12:50 PM.

  10. midas360 is offline
    01-06-2015, 12:44 PM #130
    Yeah we know. It's just you and your predictions here. No one else matters in your little world.

    Quote Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA View Post
    If it was more than just myself I'd still use my name. Just personal preference. If I had concerns of crazies I'd detach from online or not bother with discussions in the first place.

    Not a huge deal.

    Regarding any long held options don't pay more than 6% for time... that's usually 2 strikes deep.

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