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  1. Faulkner_SA is offline
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    10-30-2014, 05:59 PM #341
    SIRI Canada is down 30% on the year.

  2. dm_4 is offline
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    10-30-2014, 06:16 PM #342
    Quote Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA View Post
    SIRI Canada is down 30% on the year.
    lol...are they??? i didnt check. Just seems every six months months or so...they come out with good news. On second thought maybe a good thing we dont buy it

  3. Faulkner_SA is offline
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    10-30-2014, 08:29 PM #343
    yeah they were above 10 in January I think. Now 7. You get the dividend there but... that dividend, in my opinion, is more to drive cash to parent SIRI than it is to reward XSR investors.

    They do 10.5 per quarter which was about 4% annual in Jan. That's a bit more now... it's not a bad dividend if the stock was not declining.

    They did a special dividend in June or July too around 58 cents.

    Dividends can be nice but... they do take away from the share price on issue. If you have a $20 bil company holding $1 bil of cash and you send that cash out in a dividend, you have a $19 bil company. If the share price was $20 per and you get a $1 div, your share price is now $19 per and you have $1 .... the same.

    I've yet to find anyone who can explain to me why dividends are so wonderful (on their own, that is).

  4. bdp. is offline
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    10-31-2014, 08:14 AM #344
    Good morning- Futures looking very healthy. Sirius should finally break through 3.40 today and be on its way to 3.50.

  5. dm_4 is offline
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    10-31-2014, 08:22 AM #345
    Quote Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA View Post
    yeah they were above 10 in January I think. Now 7. You get the dividend there but... that dividend, in my opinion, is more to drive cash to parent SIRI than it is to reward XSR investors.

    They do 10.5 per quarter which was about 4% annual in Jan. That's a bit more now... it's not a bad dividend if the stock was not declining.

    They did a special dividend in June or July too around 58 cents.

    Dividends can be nice but... they do take away from the share price on issue. If you have a $20 bil company holding $1 bil of cash and you send that cash out in a dividend, you have a $19 bil company. If the share price was $20 per and you get a $1 div, your share price is now $19 per and you have $1 .... the same.

    I've yet to find anyone who can explain to me why dividends are so wonderful (on their own, that is).
    Yeah looks like they had a nice run up over the last two years 3ish to 10ish...to the this years pullback to 7.

    As far as the divs....people just like getting that green...even if its not the best use of earnings.

    leaving fla today, vaca is over....time to get back to Boston.....man im gonna miss this beautiful naples weather!!

    Lets have a great day everybody!!

  6. Wolf Child is offline
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    10-31-2014, 10:38 AM #346
    trading back above the 200 day.... for now

  7. Wolf Child is offline
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    10-31-2014, 01:27 PM #347
    a few days old....

    New-Vehicle Retail Sales On Pace for 1.1 Million, the Strongest October since 2004 - See more at: http://www.jdpower.com/press-release...t-october-2014


    and btw, i'm feeling pretty good about buying the dip into the low 3.30's.... bdp, you still holding those cheap shares too?
    Last edited by Wolf Child; 10-31-2014 at 01:33 PM.

  8. dm_4 is offline
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    10-31-2014, 01:43 PM #348
    First time I have used WiFi from 35k ft above ground pretty cool stuff.

    Wolf nice find on Oct sales thanks!

    Looking at td amrtrd siri one day chart. Looks like the machines are in complete control again today.

    Still nice to be up 7 percent or so from a few weeks ago.

  9. bdp. is offline
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    10-31-2014, 02:05 PM #349
    Quote Originally Posted by Wolf Child View Post
    a few days old....

    New-Vehicle Retail Sales On Pace for 1.1 Million, the Strongest October since 2004 - See more at: http://www.jdpower.com/press-release...t-october-2014


    and btw, i'm feeling pretty good about buying the dip into the low 3.30's.... bdp, you still holding those cheap shares too?
    Yes I am. Since there was no reason that the sp should have dropped that low after a great CC, it felt like a no brainer. Only concern is I now maxed out my margin and it would have cost me money if it declined to the high 3.20's range. At 3.40 I have added 13.6k.

  10. Steiny is offline
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    10-31-2014, 02:24 PM #350
    Hey guys, haven't been posting much, just lurking and reading everyone's posts. Congrats to those with all the good trades. I just wanted to post up a quick analysis for you guys - it's nothing earth-shattering, but figured it was pertinent for everyone to see so you can plan ahead of need be... I just added up the major financial numbers YTD and compared vs. 2014 guidance. Then looked at the YOY comparison for Q4. Unfortunately it doesn't look good for Q4 unless guidance was ultra-conservative. But in general SIRI has guided slightly lower than actual performance. In this case, hopefully they crush earnings, but it doesn't look good right now. I think SIRI will have to have unbelievable 2015 guidance to overcome what the number are showing.

    I originally guessed that Q3 numbers would be horrible and Q4 would be great. But it's shaping up to be the opposite, it's interesting because Q4 is typically SIRI's best Q historically.

    Any thoughts would be appreciated.... just trying to look ahead beyond the current PPS and market conditions.


    Revenues YTD $3.090B vs. $4.150B guidance - implies $1.06B for Q4, which is 6% growth YOY.

    FCF YTD $0.825B vs. $1.120B guidance - implies $295M for Q4 which is -3% decline YOY.

    EBITDA YTD $1.086B vs. $1.425B guidance - implies $339M for Q4 which is 4% growth YOY.

    Net subscribers YTD 1.175M vs. 1.5M guidance - implies 325M net subs for Q4 which is lower than Q2 and Q3. Also, can't really compare this YOY because of GM contract shift in Q4 2013.

    Net self-pay subs YTD 0.932M vs. 1.25M guidance - implies 317k net self-pay adds for Q4 which is lower than Q2 and Q3.

    Paid promotional subs YTD 242k vs. 250k guidance - implies 7k net paid promo adds for Q4 which is the lowest of the year.