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  1. Newman is offline
    Newman's Avatar
    Joined: Jun 2007 Location: Dallas Texas Posts: 1,162
    06-16-2008, 12:49 AM #1

    Forbes Repots that Martin is recommending APPROVAL!!!

  2. bwebbman is offline
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    Joined: Apr 2008 Location: North Carolina Posts: 16
    06-16-2008, 12:24 PM #2

    After merger $$Price$$ per share

    So lets say this Thursday the 19th. at the close of day the merger between Siri/XM if final. I get the feeling that people in the know, Cramer types, are suggesting around a $5.00 price for Siri and this seems just to low. I just placed a limit sell order for $6.00 keeping 5000 shares in reserve for the bigger bucks Newman.....what's your feeling on this as you also own shares
    Last edited by bwebbman; 06-18-2008 at 11:10 AM.

  3. Newman is offline
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    Joined: Jun 2007 Location: Dallas Texas Posts: 1,162
    06-16-2008, 07:57 PM #3
    I think you are expecting WAY too much... at least short term.

    On average, these two companies have popped between 10 and 20% when big news hits. Today, they spiked as high as 17%, then dropped back to 4%, as the street appears to be awaiting the details of the approval. It will all be in the details.

    Will the spectrum Set-aside be leased or given up for free?
    What will the open access requirement entail?
    What timelines will they give for accomplishing these feats?
    Are there any other concessions that were not mentioned in the "leaked" story?

    As Tyler has reported here before, it will take a "perfect storm" of releases to get the stock price to levels that were anticipated at the end of 2007. That perfect storm started today.
    1) FCC announces circulation. (done)
    2) Public comments by the republican commissioners in support of the merger.
    3) Announcment of a vote to happen.
    4) The vote takes place and passes
    5) XM and Sirius consumate the merger, making it official.
    6) The combined company releases a semi-detailed list of potential synergies and their plans for integrating the two services quickly.
    7) The two companies announcing that they have restructured their debt.

    If you go best case scenario and say a 20% pop on the announcment of the vote by the FCC, that will give you 13.56 for XM and 3.14 for Sirius. Remembering that XM has a fixed rate of 4.6 to one, it would actually value XM at 14.44. Given ALL of this within 3 months of today, I thik you will see a nice pop in addition to that, but no where near the $6 you are hoping for. I think at best you will hit $4 on a spike, near term.

    Sorry to break your bubble... but there is no way that Sirius sees $6 before 2010 without a reverse stock split (which I do suspect we will see after they get their finances straight)
    Last edited by Newman; 06-16-2008 at 07:59 PM. Reason: Added info about reverse stock split