Market Watch for 1/4/ 2010 thru 1/17/2010

[candleman]

QASP, BEHL, and CBAI have really paid off for me this week. I'm taking the Dave approach and shaving all the way up. I am out of CBAI with 45%, Almost out of BEHL with 56%, and QASP has delivered very nicely as well. I've sold about three quarters of my holdings there and am happy with 30%.

This is a very nice way to start the year!

I've also been shaving SIRI. I'm wondering if 69 or 70 cents is the high for now????

Small profits mean good paydays and nice sleep filled nights.

I'm still trying to liquidate another 55% of my portfolio over the next month or so. Need some nice upward moves on Sprint and Citi.

Poor old OCNF just can't find a direction to follow.

[billhart22]

Hi Bill,

Macro\micro - Caught a bit on the radio driving home last night from one of the better stations out here. He was taking this whole health care behind closed doors to task, replaying all the campaign promises of Mr. O to publicly air these sort of things on CSPAN - Included in this were some outtakes to Nancy P from some journalists questioning her about that very fact, including a letter from the president of CSPAN asking why they have not been allowed to do this very thing ... The response was the usual waffling.

Elsewhere, caught some very interesting takes on the possible illusion being created by the supply and demand model as excess inventory has been taken up and the newer production is painting this to be better than what meets the eye.

On the micro ... Still like these pennies and am glad the route ran through this last year. Have learned a great deal ... Maybe it's pure idealism and hopeful - wishful thinking but I want to support that very thing that this whole economy and what is\was our backbone - Small business owners. Real start-up companies - Organic, home grown, job producing ventures ... Dare I say it, "Made in the good ol' U.S. of A." - Weeding through the gutter of these exchanges to find them is tedious, but maybe it's the stinky-pinkies for the most part over against the OTCBB that at least has some ... regulating, if that's the word. "Requirements" might be better.

Hey Tib -

I agree with you so much and I love your philosophy. These guys can't all be scourges, but so many are.

What I appreciate the most is your wording. "Organic, Home Grown, Job producing ventures". That really inspired me to maybe look for companies in the "good old U.S.A." that are driven to expand and hire people. Truthfully saying, that previous to your statement there, I had really not considered that aspect of a stock. I realize that it sounds really stupid not to consider that before, but I really hadn't. I think that is a real criteria that I have overlooked prior to this point in time. ....Great thinking!!

Oh God, I hate government regulation, but the pinks and BB's need some oversight....only so they are forced to produce information. I am sick of the MGLG's, which I got out of with my pants still on...but I have lost my shorts on a few others.

I really agree with you!

[ray]

Hey Mr.Bill wuz up...!!

[billhart22]

Hey Mr.Bill wuz up...!!

Hey buddy! I love you!

It has been a while. I really haven't been much into the market lately. I have just been doing life, but am reconsidering all that is going on. I don't think that is worth a shit...but I am more of a watcher than anything.

If you have any good trips or thoughts to take, please email me... I love you..you have always been such a brother to Tony and I.

I really am going through an emotional storm....nothing objective and fruitful. Just plain nonsense... I don't have it together...

You are the greatest!


Bill

[Dr. Dave]

Check ACTC and GERN - about to pop - buy would be over the price lines...
STEM is also in pennant, with line just above..

In fact, just make a stem only list -
Add CCEL ISCO ENCO CBAI with above (think all are research, where CCEL and CBAI are storage)

[bassmaster]

got it thanx... marathon poker session gonna run into marathon trading session

IF I DONT PASS OUT.LOL

[Los Tiburones]

LOL -

ok - let's calculate what 1 of our refridgerators are worth....

Here's the price for setup, and subscriptions - cbai is the parent company of the first one listed...
http://21months.com/countdown/cord_blood_banking.htm

Being that the process at least to me is pretty simple - you get some sample, put it in a tube, add a pennies worth of glycerol, screw on cap, shove it into a liquid nitrogen container, ship by fedex/courier, receive sample, barcode it, stick it in a tank. I can't see how they don't pocket at least $500 from each "Collection Kit & Processing" fee.

So if we were to use one of our refridgerators (I'm sure they are storing in a N2 tank, but lets just see how it adds up... for 1 fridge worth of volume...

Here's what a box that we use looks like...


each is a grid of 9 x 9
our fridge has racks for these, each rack holds 16 boxes
each shelf holds 6 racks
each fridge has 5 shelves

so if you look at your fridge, multiply whatever you think they keep from that setup fee by this number:

9 x 9 x 16 x 6 x 5 = 38880 --> to make it easy lets just say a fridge can hold 40000 tubes

Lets say they just keep $250 of that $1650 set up fee, $150 enrollment fee, and $125 yearly storage fee

40000*$250=$1,000,000

So each set of tubes that takes up about the space of a standard fridge is worth $1M, just using a conservative figure of $250 per sample. I'm sure that their new building can hold more than 10 refridgerator's worth of samples.

Look at the ticker PSA - public storage - here a 10 x 10' room rents for about $250 a month... it's market cap is $14B. Sure, it doesn't use liquid nitrogen for cooling, but many have air conditioners.

Just need to convince the mom's that it's worth while. I think it's cheaper than having a second kid so your kid can have a donor. Moreover, a second kid's DNA is a recombinogenic mess compared to what you get from a stem cell... a stem cell has basically 99.99% fidelity.

I"m sure after 10 years, they'll even start charging an upkeep, where they remove some cells, culture them to make sure they are ok, and refreeze... that's more involved than the above process, so I'm sure it'll have a $5K price tag.

I think the only bottleneck is the moms.

Anyway - would I buy the stock today, hell no, not after that run up... but if it smooths out, and has another up volume day, I'd go for it.

Remember, a stock is worth the current bid... who cares what someone on the hub has to say about it. Price is the ultimate indicator.

Here's what I said about resistance, I wasn't looking at level II or anything... never do...



Here's why today is not the day to buy, or at least without some real tight stops, previously, it has run hard in weeks, can see it on the weekly, but I wouldn't encourage anyone to buy tomorrow, you want a full blown consolidation first...

Good Dr.

This is really excellent work here! Read it last night and can see where this would drive some revenues ... to put it mildly. Thought about responding separately to put some separation from ... here it comes ... the proverbial But ...

That share structure ... There is a gazillion shares out there and I can't see anything but a R\S out of it. To come clean ... I am playing this very short term so the proper DD that I have been going on all about isn't nearly what it should\would be if I was thinking longer term. I know better, to put the disclaimer here and am not blindly following the shrubettes but it's one of those things where unless you have been following along the trains of thought you get left behind at the station - These guys who have been in it for some time seem awfully comfortable with this incredible dilution and monstrous A\S ... it makes me want to know just why. Of course the newcomers that ask a similar question get sticky-ed as bashers so it's that ol 'Trust me' business, "I have been here a long time, we know all about it" yet there is never any reasonable explanation ...

Anyway that's quite a bit for a stock I don't plan on holding beyond much more than a couple of hours today ...

[Los Tiburones]

Next time, go below the round number (0.20)... ie. something like 0.18-0.19 to get a better chance of a hit if you really want out. Like if you really really wanted out of SIRI, shoot for 0.68-0.69, not 0.71-0.72, etc.

Anyway, with today's close near the HOD, we got as chance as any for more uppage... but look for a gap and trap.

Yeah, to tell the truth I was trying to hit that elusive top ... I don't have a lot in this and wasn't overly concerned about getting out, in fact when it started ratcheting up I was ready to pull the .022 and go higher.

My take on this right now ... It's just ... lets call it 'awareness' driven. So much talk and so many eyes on it, it reminds me of the good ol days when stocks would run for no good reason ... opening up a new warehouse\lab certainly can't be the catalyst for this run ... I think it's just a lot of blindly piling in and it may yet continue on ... Will be watching it with my Marty Feldman eye, like a hawk.

[Los Tiburones]

Hey Tib -

I agree with you so much and I love your philosophy. These guys can't all be scourges, but so many are.

What I appreciate the most is your wording. "Organic, Home Grown, Job producing ventures". That really inspired me to maybe look for companies in the "good old U.S.A." that are driven to expand and hire people. Truthfully saying, that previous to your statement there, I had really not considered that aspect of a stock. I realize that it sounds really stupid not to consider that before, but I really hadn't. I think that is a real criteria that I have overlooked prior to this point in time. ....Great thinking!!

Oh God, I hate government regulation, but the pinks and BB's need some oversight....only so they are forced to produce information. I am sick of the MGLG's, which I got out of with my pants still on...but I have lost my shorts on a few others.

I really agree with you!

Hey Bill,

Think you summed it up right there; "I am sick of the MGLG's" - There is a part of me that wants to go after them ... 'bring them to justice' and I can hear the refrains of some of those so called 'do gooders' (Otherwise known as 'bashers') screaming about how it's our own fault that we do not go after these types and why they proliferate if not reproduce like rabbits ...

Obviously, it's a time soak ... If our wonderful Gov. had it together they could form a specific task force to regulate these exchanges, seems to me it would more than pay for itself in fines, penalties ...

[SiriMonkey]

Good morning Friends,

Nothing of interest to post here on Market Watch. Other
than Yea, it's Friday!! Even though I have to work
tomorrow, Friday's are always nice. People always
seem to be in a good mood. At least I am, right.

Hope everyone is well and managing this awful bitter cold.
Adding insult to injury several inches of snow await me when
I leave for work. I need a volunteer to shovel my walk and car.

Enjoy this day,

Julie