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  1. Dr. Dave is offline
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    12-07-2009, 03:21 AM #71
    Quote Originally Posted by bassmaster View Post
    beware of satwaves, its posters are the pumpers from yahoo led by a hack. i definitely suggest re-reggin to koat for the siri articles and the gold thread.
    Lol, I just peek every once in a while if someone mentions this or that over at satwaves... I'd never listen to those guys for advice on trading SIRI, or anything for that matter. Bill is my oracle.

    For Koat, I'd have to create a new email address... so we'll see, I can't communicate with that site whatsoever.

  2. Dr. Dave is offline
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    12-07-2009, 03:25 AM #72
    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM View Post
    dr.Dave,not a chartist at all,but can read them and last three breakouts after consolidation period like now we went up a certain % and then pulled back different time frames each time to set a new support base roughly .10 higher than trading when it started,so with not knowing exactly when this breakout will happen i picked the most likely high of .86 and retrace to lower support at .72..that was my amateur thinking at the time
    Three weeks out (I think) and the craziness of December trading, any technique will do I figure. I'll post a few charts in a bit - honestly, as of friday's close - I had no idea of even picking the direction of this week, let alone a price. It was almost comical the way the market ended this week for this contest. From a chart perspective, it's about as 50/50 (at least for monday) as it gets.

  3. Dr. Dave is offline
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    12-07-2009, 03:32 AM #73
    Quote Originally Posted by S50Fan View Post
    Hey Dr. Dave. I thought about the last run up to 77.8 or whatever it was, and used that resistance point to pick my .77. Thinking the .77 number would be a good level to be at come Dec. 31st. if this thing does indeed do a breakout to the upside. I didn't want to go to high so, .15 cents higher from where it was trading (in the .62 range) when I made my pick seemed ok to me at the time.

    And holy crap, your .535 number had my eyes popping out, until I read why you picked it. lol I felt a bit better after that. Still, I hope we don't even see your bullish price of .675 you picked. LOL We need about .10 higher than that, .775 would be nice of course, for me anyway.
    I think 3 weeks out it's all a guess, I'm bullish SIRI overall, but that doesn't mean I don't expect the price to come down a few weeks, then go up a few weeks, I think I looked, and the next earnings date is march, so we can go up and down quite a bit. I'm hoping the stock soars in the future, but I don't want to ever take a loss on it after holding a gain either, knock on wood.

  4. Dr. Dave is offline
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    12-07-2009, 05:03 AM #74
    Well, here's my guessing strategy - first it was about 11:30 pm on friday, when I saw socal's post to get a guess in... so I just looked at some basic things... first, I just wanted a direction, not a price, so first turned to the nasdaq...



    From a TA standpoint - we're on the line - which way it goes is anyone's guess, but it's pretty significant - actually (I won't do it yet, now that it's 1am monday, we could look at tonight's futures trading, but, let's stick to friday)... interesting about this, is that during the time that the sept 2008 downgap was about to be filled, we had a month+ or stalling at that level - see june to past beginning of july 2009 for what I'm talking about. We now have the same amount of time bumping on this new resistance level... which way will it go? This is why I said "great day to pick a siri price" - can't even tell which way the market is headed.

    So, let's look at another...

    Here we see a trendline fib combo - again, who knows.. volume points maybe to the downside, but an uptrend isn't over until its over.... ???

  5. Dr. Dave is offline
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    12-07-2009, 05:04 AM #75
    Those charts murphy had up by the way. Then look at Dow Jones...



    Just a note here and now - if the bulls win - take a good look at those charts - we have price resistance at the 61.8% retractments on both the spx and dji - so if you are in a trade during that time and want to book profits that will be the time.

    Anyway, I should have looked at the russell 2000, but didn't, and since I didn't - I won't bother looking it up now.

    To get perhaps another clue though, the vix is always something to look at...



    Now - this guy is in a cycle right now, and that cycle is just short of a one month cycle, with the peaks near the begining/end of each month. The way it's going now, if the cycle continues, it'll peak a few days before the end of the year, which sounds like it would correspond to mutual fund dumping to protect numbers, followed by buying. Anyway, from that, I figured perhaps that a SIRI breakout above what I call el supremo resistance (the 0.68-0.70) range seemed a little daunting.

    But - SIRI itself is riding a trendline sooo....
    Last edited by Dr. Dave; 12-07-2009 at 05:09 AM.

  6. Dr. Dave is offline
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    12-07-2009, 05:16 AM #76
    So rather than look at one of my "Dave drew all over the place, wtf is he talking about" charts - I kept this one simple -



    We have a simple trendline. We're riding on it, not rebounding off of it like in the past - Looking where the market is on those other charts, I wasn't expecting a massive change. I couldn't choose a direction, so picking a price was tough - I chose a bearish direction, since I figured everyone else was really bullish - that's basically it. I had no idea what anyone picked, but I know most SIRI folks are bullish all the time. So basically, I though I liked a 0.58 target, I went with one lower in the purple. My bullish pick is on there too, which also could be a decent price for a retest, even if we break the line.

    Anyway, that's about it - direction - charts don't say much, so I went with bear, since I figured everyone was bulls... price - just picked a normal range, and a support area, shaved a little off...

    No real magic there. Truthfully though, I know you shouldn't try to pick a trend change, buy when people panic, etc. But the setups are kind of leaning to bearish just a little in my head - but when you sit on the line, anything can happen.

    Ok - time to look at futures!!!!!
    Last edited by Dr. Dave; 12-07-2009 at 05:20 AM.

  7. JohnnyIrishXM is offline
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    12-07-2009, 09:37 AM #77
    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Dave View Post
    Lol, I just peek every once in a while if someone mentions this or that over at satwaves... I'd never listen to those guys for advice on trading SIRI, or anything for that matter. Bill is my oracle.

    For Koat, I'd have to create a new email address... so we'll see, I can't communicate with that site whatsoever.
    dr.Dave,rick says you can reregister now with your original e-mail and name,it should be ok...

  8. relmor2003 is offline
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    12-07-2009, 09:50 AM #78
    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Dave View Post
    Lol, you'll love this - since I didn't really read this thread, and can't log into that other site, I thought the way it worked is that the overall contest winner was chosen off of a single player's price from each team, ie. one entrant closest to price from each team, then if say they were both 3 cents off, the tie breaker would be the person lower, so I low balled my bearish case - which is 0.58. So to low ball, I decided to take it to just above the next support level 0.54 + 0.01 candle head, which is what the second lowest price I figured it would be, then subtracted a little more from it, just to be the low guy. My bullish pick was 0.675, kind of using the same reasoning. Anyway, looks like I missed the boat on picking what I thought the price would be on the 31st... lol, I picked a price based on how I thought the game was played. But, going up against 0.90, I guess the diff between 0.535 and 0.58 isn't that big of a deal, though at low prices, the percentages get bigger, ie. 4.5 cents is a bigger percentage in the 0.50's than in the 0.90's.

    It would take about 3 posts to show really why I picked what I picked. That's why I'm so damn curious where folks got their numbers. Example, the first charts I'd flash aren't SIRI charts.

    Sounds like koat is likely more aligned because they probably post a lot more than the folks here, the siri thread is dying on this board. I can't read koat, but I see there is a ton of chatter on satwaves when I peek at it.

    Anyone willing to post why they picked their price?
    No you can log into the other site. That issue has been solved like a month ago man. Try re registering. And please let me know what your smoking on your pick, because i want some of that!!
    I know why your picking .53, ur seeing a large move down vs. up. Fair enough. It will break in one direction soon enough. You will be wrong so bad, you may burst into tears. No worries, just look at all your gains , and you will feel better.

  9. relmor2003 is offline
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    12-07-2009, 09:51 AM #79
    John Im sure had to check with Homer on his pick. Hey John, tell Homer nice guess for me!!
    LOL

    If you didnt John, how do you know its correct?
    LOL

  10. Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    12-07-2009, 10:33 AM #80

    Important Question

    Hey Socal . . .

    If Irish's washwoman washes Irish's wash who washes Irish's washwoman's wash?

    SHEREE!






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