Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM
Hey Johnny,
I'm taking offense at this competition thing. There ain't nobody as
good as me, giving weather.No matter what coast you're from.
And as far as being an Sirius investor. I'll show you my shares if you'll show me yours.
Julie
Almost forgot. cloudy, grey skies. Temp 53. How's that for good.
Last edited by SiriMonkey; 10-30-2009 at 06:53 AM.
I believe the reason we are still not seeing any real movement (besides what will be the normal run up to the CC) is because most are starting to realize this quarter will be yet another with a mixed bag full of good and bad. Most wont be able to really see the improving metrics for what they are they are going to compare the last FCF, EBITDA, and SAC to the two quarters before and say what the frick happen. Few will notice that when compared to last 3rd quarter it will be a somewhat good 3rd quarter. Even when they have a lost of FCF in the third quarter the should compare that loss to the past loss of last 3rd quarter and not the 1st and 2nd quarters of this year. Now I know many smart people here are saying sure that is what you should do. The problem is many people have gotton used all (except sub adds) metrics improving quarter over quarter and will forget their heads and logical common sense of what they normally look at. The fact is the real quarter that should have all improving metrics to the positive side (you know the quarter we all have been waiting for since, what seems like, time began) is this 4th quarter. If that does not get this PPS over a buck then nothing will and there will be nothing that will stop a split.
great post john, agreed wholeheartedly.
one of my original posts back in march or april called for a slow higher trend up , then with a huge bang in Q3 CC. at the time i wasnt aware of the OEM costs, etc. associated with Q3 and that it was always higher than the other Q's. since tyler informed us how the seasonal Q's numbers work ,thanks tyler, im expecting Q4 CC to be the real deal breakout point for this stock. if it doesnt , bleh , R/S is a very strong possibility. AND I AM NOT PRO R/S!!!!!
Weeell, based on the above two comments - ah, what the hell...sounds like the smart thing for me to do is just hold another lousy three months until Q4, or rather after. Why walk away with a little cabbage now when we could wait 90 days and have a whole mound of coleslaw.
But then again that's what some were saying a while back that Q3 was supposed to bring also. : (
Last edited by mrmertz; 10-29-2009 at 05:36 PM. Reason: added cute smiley thingy
Not sure why it is not moving yet. This looking like a much better quarter than previous 2, why would we get such high up volume on those when they were expected to be bad, especially horrible subs.
I think it is just weary investors that may just want to finally see the proof instaed of speculating. Either way, I do believe we get closer to .70 going in to next Thursday - volume should start to surge early next week.
My take.
i really cant explain it much but i am aware that sirius does move with the market, not necessarily in day to day fluctuations but in general. this was proven by the great Dr. Dave who had posted a chart. i wish i had the link to that post, i dont, i apologize.
historically Q4 is SIRIUS' best Q of the year with regards to metrics. i dont see it changing, and bonus- i dont think we have much if any capex, revenues will be great, i wont call for a Q profit because im not too familiar with the numbers but im expecting it. im sure tyler will make predictions some time after the Q3 CC and he can give a more detailed "guess" on to how the bottom line might end up.
IMO, if you need the money right away. then sell if we get a nice runup pre/post Q3 CC. If you can wait till feb , Q4 will be our best Q up to date and HOPEFULLY that will be reflected in the stock price. this is all my opinion, DYODD, and gl whatever you decide to do.
Here are my estimates for the next 5 trading days. If they are close I will certainly gloat. If not, I will just plead an optimist. This is strictly my opinion, so DYODD.
open close
Fri 30-Oct 0.5991 0.6305
Mon 2-Nov 0.6594 0.6638
Tues 3-Nov 0.6819 0.7468
Wed 4-Nov 0.8039 0.7427
Thur 5-Nov 0.7103 0.7301
Pull up your chart for last week to CC. You will verify that we stood at .54 and landed at .73 the day before the CC. We never topped that. However, The two week prior pattern is completely different than this time. Leaving the door open for most any side argument.
Prior quarters are very difficult to compare as since the merger the company was inconsistent in when they were to announce results. So Socal, wtf are you saying. I'm saying if we fail to see much action tomorrow or Monday. This may run a few cents, but otherwise, it's like the kid who was suppose to be on that balloon.
Julietoo, will always be the one and only weather person for me. A "man" SRK. I had to return cause apparently you have lost your sanity. You now have a psuedo wife. A message in a bottle/sand. And your searching for genetic dispositions of posters. Man that last birthday must have really spun the ol number on the dial.......................................
As to disappearances. I think ol candleman's string finally burned out..............Now that's funny.
JohnnyIrish disappeared, due to lack of sleep.
Inromo came back to say he should be investor of the year.
Hopeful? Do they really say "shit the bed" in Canada. Eh?
If Bassmaster is posting on this thread you know CC is coming.
Actually I think Rosie should do a pom pom dance on Mels lap. You know. Maybe that would create some passion. Cause that ol dog is so lost in the 80's he probably is still looking for that black light, those pictures that light up with them on, and a good four finger baggie.
Welcome back Socal! Thank you. I have missed you all. Yes, John, you too. Group hug. Raise the roof. Someone push the higher button in some dark room somewhere and get this stock price decimal moved over one.
TIA.
Socal Running Fool
Last edited by socalrunningfool; 10-29-2009 at 11:21 PM.
[QUOTE=socalrunningfool;55600
Julietoo, will always be the one and only weather person for me. A "man" SRK. I had to return cause apparently you have lost your sanity. You now have a psuedo wife. A message in a bottle/sand. And your searching for genetic dispositions of posters. Man that last birthday must have really spun the ol number on the dial.......................................
As to disappearances. I think ol candleman's string finally burned out. ............Now that's funny.
JohnnyIrish disappeared, due to lack of sleep.
Inromo came back to say he should be investor of the year.
Hopeful? Do they really say "shit the bed" in Canada. Eh?
If Bassmaster is posting on this thread you know CC is coming.
Actually I think Rosie should do a pom pom dance on Mels lap. You know. Maybe that would create some passion. Cause that ol dog is so lost in the 80's he probably is still looking for that black light, those pictures that light up with them on, and a good four finger baggie.
Welcome back Socal! Thank you. I have missed you all. Yes, John, you too. Group hug. Raise the roof. Someone push the higher button in some dark room somewhere and get this stock price decimal moved over one.
TIA.
Socal Running Fool[/QUOTE]
My dear Missing SoCal
What else can I say but YEA!!!!!!!
Welcome back. You have been missed!!!!!
California Dreaming
Julie The ONE and ONLY Weather GIRL
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