Sirius Weekly Thread 10-05-2009

[SiriuslyLong]

Lets not kid ourselves. To say this stock has strong fundamentals would be a lie. But lets get real. When has there fundamentals ever been better? What price are we trading at? When has our debt been so far out due? Not in years has that worry been alleviated. No merger hanging over this company. Improving auto sales, new Used Car programs, Iphone/Skydock/Ipod, better GM contract, and lower costs, not to mention more listening options than ever, and improved revenue environment, can only mean one thing. This stock is a bargain here, and we may never see these prices again. But do your own due diligence, and run the auto numbers out for 2 years at a 12 million take rate. Figure out how many subs that is, and keep churn around the same, and then add in higher ARPU due to royalty charges, and internet charge, and continued growth in best of packages. Not to mention the Skydock sub additions are at very little SAC.
R/S? Get real. Our biggest problems in March will be do we sell now, or wait for $2.

I screwed up and posted a bunch of charts in the other thread. Go look there.

Thanks for the optimism Relmor.

I'm no analyst, but unless they post favorable 3Q results, or get an extension, I see the r/s happening 1Q2010. 1Q2010 results will be announced too late to effect the stock by the deadline. My opinion is that it's all or nothing, right now. Put your chips on the table boys and girls, the wheel is about to be spun.

[relmor2003]

Thanks for the optimism Relmor.

I'm no analyst, but unless they post favorable 3Q results, or get an extension, I see the r/s happening 1Q2010. 1Q2010 results will be announced too late to effect the stock by the deadline. My opinion is that it's all or nothing, right now. Put your chips on the table boys and girls, the wheel is about to be spun.

Q4 will be considered there "best quarter ever". So I dont agree with your opinion. As usual.

[SiriuslyLong]

Q4 will be considered there "best quarter ever". So I dont agree with your opinion. As usual.

I agree with all of your points - I'm long my friend; my question is will Q4 (not 1Q2010 as noted above) results be good enough and in time enough to get 10 days over $1.00? That's my concern. It seems like a tall order from today's perspective.

What's with "as usual"???? Did I miss something?

[relmor2003]

I agree with all of your points - I'm long my friend; my question is will Q4 (not 1Q2010 as noted above) results be good enough and in time enough to get 10 days over $1.00? That's my concern. It seems like a tall order from today's perspective.

What's with "as usual"???? Did I miss something?

If its as good as it should be, according to Mel, then I wouldnt worry about $1. I woudl start thinkin gabout if you want to sell before $2 or not.

[Hopeful]

http://in.reuters.com/article/market...99106920091009

Sirius down again at 89 million, hmm

Anyone care to guess what's going to happen?

[john]

If its as good as it should be, according to Mel, then I wouldnt worry about $1. I woudl start thinkin gabout if you want to sell before $2 or not.

While I am not to sure about the 2 dollar mark being hit all that fast I am sure that they will wait till after the 4th Q results sink in before they think about doing a reverse split.



SiriuslyLong, the second 6 months would be given if only asked for by SIRIXM because they have already taken care of the requirement that they have a plan in place to bring the PPS over a dollar to get the 6 month extention.

Also lets just think about what has happen so far as for the things that will show a better bottom line that were not there a year ago. BTW most of which will happen in or by the 4th quarter.

THE POSITIVES

1.) First there will not be anymore merger cost included.

2.) Then we have an increase for the family plan.

3.) Then there is the internet fee.

3.) Next there is the average of 1.75 increase for royalties.

4.) Then there is one that is good and bad the cost to adding less from the OEMs. While they save on SAC and other metrics, they are losing subscribers faster then they can gain them back.

THE NEGATIVES

1.) Did not add any subscribers.

2.) Loss of subscribers let say 500,000.

3.) Had some major cost to refinancing.


The positives far out weigh the negitives and will eclipse them even more as time gos on. Now I was mistaken on my FCF positive estimate for the last 4th quarter for the combined company because as homer said and I did not believe, the merger cost would still be great. I think we can both agree those cost will not be there this time and I will once again go back and extrapolate the FCF from past quarters to come up with what I think is a reasonable number you will see for FCF for the 4th quarter.



Taking into account 4th quarters for 2005 through 2008 I think we can see a improving number for both companies going from less and less negitive number to a more and more positive number in general (which means taken into account one time CAPEX and merger cost). So going stickly from year to year and figuring all the rate increases to way more then make up for the loss of subscribers (and the cost that go with them). That we could see a FCF positive number in the 175 to 225 million range. Now even with the 3rd quarter FCF number not being so good they will, I believe be FCF positive for the full year of 2009 for the first time in their history. Now lets remember while that is not a pure profit it is what every analyst was waiting for before. FCF was how they were being measured before and yes getting more subscribers. The reason the ever increasing subscribers were so important though was because it kept looking like they needed an ever increasing number of them to become FCF positive. I am sure once that point is reached that the subscriber number will more or less not be as important, that is not to say they wont have to increase them to make it look like they are a growth company. But that they can now be seen as a viable company something which many have questioned from the beginning.

[billhart22]

...and like a Phoenix, the sp rises again. Never fails. I have bought over 300,000 shares during these dips over the past several months and will continue to buy more with confidence the next time it happens. This is what Sirius has been set up to do and every investor that toys with this stock knows it. For some reason, there is still an abundance of freaked out chumps that continue to buy into the media pumped fear every time, creating these great buying opportunities for others.

On another note, keep an eye on CIT group. There's a $75 billion neutron bomb that's about to blow taking the Dow with it.

You have your brain on right in my opinion. Live with it and let it grow. There is no other option.