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  1. candleman is offline
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    Joined: Jul 2009 Location: Outer Banks of North Carolina Posts: 1,511
    10-07-2009, 10:27 AM #61
    Quote Originally Posted by underway View Post
    Here's a good article from WSJ. It is accurate and succinctly paints the financial picture. Unlike the A-holes at thestreet.com or motley F, it is well balanced.

    Back From the Brink, Sirius XM Not Yet a Buy By BRETT ARENDS

    Sirius XM Satellite Radio (SIRI) is a popular stock with speculators, day traders and individual investors. It has developed something of a cult following on the bulletin boards. And anyone who managed to grab it last winter, when it traded as low as about a nickel a share, has done well—the stock is now 59 cents, after touching 70 cents a few weeks ago.

    But this is not your ordinary penny stock. Anyone trading it, one way or another, ought to have some idea of what they are buying or selling. But with Sirius XM, it's not immediately clear what the company's really worth.

    At 59 cents, the shares look cheap. But there are vast amounts of shares in existence: 3.88 billion, giving the equity a hefty aggregate market value of $2.26 billion. A consolidation is likely at some point, which would cut the number of shares and raise their average price. Wall Street does not consider penny shares respectable. And Nasdaq listing rules require shares to trade above $1 over time.

    But the common stock is only part of the story.

    More on Satellite Radio
    Sirius XM Executives to Sell Shares
    John Malone's Liberty Media holds 12.5 million shares of preferred stock, in exchange for the emergency capital injection that Liberty provided earlier this year. Preferreds are a peculiar hybrid, neither truly equity nor debt. But Mr. Malone has the right to convert each preferred share into 207 common, or regular, shares. In total, therefore, he holds 2.6 billion shares, which may not be immediately apparent to regular investors. At 59 cents, those would be worth another $1.5 billion.

    And then there is the company's debt: $3.3 billion of it, including various types of bonds with different maturities.

    All told, the full enterprise value of Sirius XM adds up to just over $7 billion. That's a pretty substantial capital structure for a company which had revenues of $591 million and operating expenses of $554 million last quarter.

    On an annualized basis, Sirius XM's enterprise value, or market value of the whole business, is about three times sales. That's expensive by the standards of the U.S. market overall, which has an enterprise value of around 1.6 times annual sales, while the world's markets are on an average of about 1.3 times, according to FactSet. Anyone looking to invest at these levels should proceed with caution.

    Until earlier this year, investers were more worried about Sirius XM's survival than its prospects for growth. Even after Sirius and XM's long-awaited merger last year, the companies were slammed by the downturn. Capital markets dried up for speculative companies just as sales of new cars—which account for a large part of their business—slumped. Meanwhile the quick rise of mobile Web applications—particularly online radio services like Pandora—cast a long shadow over the future of satellite radio. (Sirius XM has since launched an iPhone app of its own.)

    Today analysts are pretty confident the company will make it. Largely thanks to cost cutting, XM has turned cash-flow positive, at least marginally. Standard & Poor's just raised the company's credit rating to B-. That's still well below investment grade, but analyst Hal Diamond says the risk of default "is now the lowest it's ever been" both for the merged company and each predecessor. The 2013 bonds, which were trading at 19 cents on the dollar last Christmas, are now at 91 cents.

    At these prices, the bonds have an annualized yield to maturity of about 12.7%. As long as the company survives without another liquidity crisis, that would be a good deal. (The average yield on comparable single-A rated corporate bonds is currently 3.7%.)

    Caveat emptor, though. Standard & Poor's predicts that Sirius' 2013 bonds, which are unsecured, would only pay out between 10 cents and 30 cents on the dollar should the company default.

    Less chancy, perhaps, are the new 2015 notes issued in August. They are secured: S&P thinks you would get back 90-100% of your money if the ship hits the iceberg after all. The yield to maturity over six years is 9.4%. There are worse investments out there, but as with anything, you should understand the risks.

    Write to Brett Arends at brett.arends@wsj.com
    Thank you, very informative. My feeling is that this writer doesn't think we're at the bottom yet as far as share price goes. But, it's not doom and gloom either.

  2. SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Joined: Jan 2009 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 3,560
    10-07-2009, 08:41 PM #62
    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    If there are lies in it I will be as against them as I am against anyone else that does it. I do it with SIRIXM as I do it with anything else. Many know this I will call you out if you are wrong to the pumper side and will call you out on it if you are on the basher side, if you are blatantly wrong I will call you a twit. I could care less if you want to believe what you want to believe but I have NO respect for anyone that does not even bother to go get the most basic information on their own before they try to put it out (disseminate) false information here or anywhere else I happen to be. So for me it is simple, you dont like the name calling then make dam sure you got the information right.
    Take it for what it's worth John, it's a movie. I know there are a lot of folks that consider movies "fact", but the plain truth is that it's a movie. Moore has his cause, and his movie's reflect his cause. I don't agree with it, but then again, I don't watch his movies (and don't buy his cause). I mean, what if some folks believed Alien vs. Predator was real?

  3. otone is offline
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    Joined: Sep 2008 Posts: 243
    10-07-2009, 10:27 PM #63
    Still out in Japan and watched as pre-market passed one of my buys at .56. Got a little crossed up with cancelling orders, but ended up getting 38k at .543. So, I'm back all in and got an additional 8100 free shares out of the deal. Plenty more in the ole bank account in case they get stupid with the SP. I've mentioned before, that for me... I took all emotion out of this process and decided to trade in .10 to .15 cent swings. Ended up being .10 (bought some at .64 a while back) and .20 cents in this case. I'll be looking to sell all the shares I bought today somewhere in the mid 70's. Could care less about any up and down movement until then.

    Fuji was pretty cool. Thought Fuji was closed above station 5, but it ended up being more like "lifeguard not on duty". Would have loved to hiked to the top, but ran out of time since we were wanting to hit the rollercoasters.. Maybe next time. The rollercoasters? Very cool, but man... I won't be doing that again... in Japan. We were there from 12:30 to 6pm (closing time on a Saturday????) and rode TWO rollercoasters. The first was incredible... Built in 06 and gave a good feeling of what a fighter pilot must feel in an extreme dogfight... but 2 1/2 hours wait? It was taking at least 8 minutes to cycle one ride that held 20 people. If it was the U.S. It would have been half that. 1 1/2 minutes for the ride and 2 1/2 to move the people on and off (maybe less... haven't rode a roller coaster in over 10 years).

    Personally, I think we have 2 more relatively "quiet" quarters before a lot of stupidity about RS and HS start ramping back up. My current feeling is that I'll want to be mostly out sometime after the first of the year, maybe leading up to the Q4 CC.

    So, any speculation on what SIRI may have in store for us during the holiday season? New iphone app upgrade (which has totally fallen off the top 100)/new app for the other platforms? New programming? Speaking of new programming. Rosie O'Donnell will be doing a test show today and taking calls from 10am to noon. It won't be aired however (not that I care ... just an fyi).

    cheers and good luck to all.

  4. SiriMonkey is offline
    10-07-2009, 11:01 PM #64
    Quote Originally Posted by otone View Post
    Still out in Japan and watched as pre-market passed one of my buys at .56. Got a little crossed up with cancelling orders, but ended up getting 38k at .543. So, I'm back all in and got an additional 8100 free shares out of the deal. Plenty more in the ole bank account in case they get stupid with the SP. I've mentioned before, that for me... I took all emotion out of this process and decided to trade in .10 to .15 cent swings. Ended up being .10 (bought some at .64 a while back) and .20 cents in this case. I'll be looking to sell all the shares I bought today somewhere in the mid 70's. Could care less about any up and down movement until then.

    Fuji was pretty cool. Thought Fuji was closed above station 5, but it ended up being more like "lifeguard not on duty". Would have loved to hiked to the top, but ran out of time since we were wanting to hit the rollercoasters.. Maybe next time. The rollercoasters? Very cool, but man... I won't be doing that again... in Japan. We were there from 12:30 to 6pm (closing time on a Saturday????) and rode TWO rollercoasters. The first was incredible... Built in 06 and gave a good feeling of what a fighter pilot must feel in an extreme dogfight... but 2 1/2 hours wait? It was taking at least 8 minutes to cycle one ride that held 20 people. If it was the U.S. It would have been half that. 1 1/2 minutes for the ride and 2 1/2 to move the people on and off (maybe less... haven't rode a roller coaster in over 10 years).

    Personally, I think we have 2 more relatively "quiet" quarters before a lot of stupidity about RS and HS start ramping back up. My current feeling is that I'll want to be mostly out sometime after the first of the year, maybe leading up to the Q4 CC.

    So, any speculation on what SIRI may have in store for us during the holiday season? New iphone app upgrade (which has totally fallen off the top 100)/new app for the other platforms? New programming? Speaking of new programming. Rosie O'Donnell will be doing a test show today and taking calls from 10am to noon. It won't be aired however (not that I care ... just an fyi).

    cheers and good luck to all.


    Great to hear from you Otone! From the other side of the world.
    Because I am all about weather, what is it like there this time of year?
    Riding roller coasters huh. Kinda like owning this stock. We are gluttons
    for punishment!

    Glad your back in, missed all the excitement did you?

    Julie

  5. otone is offline
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    Joined: Sep 2008 Posts: 243
    10-07-2009, 11:30 PM #65
    Hi Julie, still warm, but rainy for the most part. Tropical storm off the coast and moving rapidly north has totally shut things down here... Winds "may" have gusted to 40.

    Had only sold a little under 20% of my shares, so have always been more "in" than "out", although I'm hoping that will change in the next few months. However, I'll buy up more stupidly cheap shares if the MMs are intent on going that route

  6. siriusrain is offline
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    Joined: Sep 2009 Location: jersey Posts: 12
    10-08-2009, 07:48 AM #66
    Quote Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong View Post
    Take it for what it's worth John, it's a movie. I know there are a lot of folks that consider movies "fact", but the plain truth is that it's a movie. Moore has his cause, and his movie's reflect his cause. I don't agree with it, but then again, I don't watch his movies (and don't buy his cause). I mean, what if some folks believed Alien vs. Predator was real?
    His movies are put out as a documentary. Not fiction.

  7. bdp is offline
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    Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 65
    10-08-2009, 09:04 AM #67
    ...and like a Phoenix, the sp rises again. Never fails. I have bought over 300,000 shares during these dips over the past several months and will continue to buy more with confidence the next time it happens. This is what Sirius has been set up to do and every investor that toys with this stock knows it. For some reason, there is still an abundance of freaked out chumps that continue to buy into the media pumped fear every time, creating these great buying opportunities for others.

    On another note, keep an eye on CIT group. There's a $75 billion neutron bomb that's about to blow taking the Dow with it.

  8. SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Joined: Jan 2009 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 3,560
    10-08-2009, 10:26 AM #68
    Quote Originally Posted by siriusrain View Post
    His movies are put out as a documentary. Not fiction.
    Documentary with a twist perhaps. Face it, he'll do whatever he has to make his point - twist, turn, embellish......

    Ken Burns makes documentaries. Moore makes movies. If he really wants change, maybe he should become part of the process instead of an observer.

  9. Spencer Osborne is offline
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    Joined: Sep 2009 Posts: 104
    10-08-2009, 10:46 AM #69

    Satellite Standard Equity Report

    The first satellite Standard Equity Report will be distributed tomorrow for those who have subscribed. If you are interested in subscribing, you will need to contact me at satellitestandard@gmail.com.

  10. relmor2003 is offline
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    Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 1,937
    10-09-2009, 08:14 AM #70
    Lets not kid ourselves. To say this stock has strong fundamentals would be a lie. But lets get real. When has there fundamentals ever been better? What price are we trading at? When has our debt been so far out due? Not in years has that worry been alleviated. No merger hanging over this company. Improving auto sales, new Used Car programs, Iphone/Skydock/Ipod, better GM contract, and lower costs, not to mention more listening options than ever, and improved revenue environment, can only mean one thing. This stock is a bargain here, and we may never see these prices again. But do your own due diligence, and run the auto numbers out for 2 years at a 12 million take rate. Figure out how many subs that is, and keep churn around the same, and then add in higher ARPU due to royalty charges, and internet charge, and continued growth in best of packages. Not to mention the Skydock sub additions are at very little SAC.
    R/S? Get real. Our biggest problems in March will be do we sell now, or wait for $2.

    I screwed up and posted a bunch of charts in the other thread. Go look there.

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