SIRIUS Weekly Thread Week of 9-21-09

[mrmertz]

Great buy with LVLT. I have traded LVLT a couple of times and wanted to get in a couple of weeks ago as it seemed to begin a move. My brother works for them and I asked if anything was cooking and he said don't get excited there was nothing he knew of. So I didn't jump. Last time I ask his opinion.

So with a .60+ pps on SIRI, where do you set the stop? I almost think you have to time it so you place the stop at say 3 to 5% just several days before the CC. Otherwise you will get zapped with a dip and lose a position for the run up.

Ah-ha...that's another trick for putting in the trailing stop...when? Again, I'm just a "rook" so others here are faaaar more adept to this stuff than I am, but good point.

As for SIRI - I also won't put one on until a few days before the actual Q3. It's the 9th, Monday, so I'll do it the week of the 2nd. As you mentioned, waiting let's the dips wash out some before you feel it's really in for a good consistant climb. That's when I'll set my trailing stop.

Percentage or dollar on SIRI? I've only played percentages, so I'll go with that on SIRI. I had good luck with both 2% and 3% but I'll wait and see where I am profit-wise, how much it's daily fluctuation has been, and how much am I willing to loose based on the percentages before the stop triggers. (Putting 2% on C was spooky given it's volume/bouncing abilities but it worked great for me yesterday.)

To summerize, it's like BigBen said, it's not just about knowing when to get in -but when to get out and TO HOLD WHAT YOU'VE GOT! I look at my past 6 months performance chart and I see some fairly large dips. I wasn't utilizing trailing stops back then. At worse now I see a slight drop after the high (when the trail triggers), but it never drops like it used to.

If I had a trailing stop in the morning back on the 7th when SIRI's bottom fell out I would have never had to make up the $1200. loss. Lessons learned.

Siriustunes; as for LVLT, I've got them on my "Watchlist". Yeah, so much for listening to your brother! The volume has been deflated but keep an eye on them. Are they still waiting for the federal stimulus funds they requested to get approved? I think they are. If that's the case watch for another rise up.

Megahertz out.

[candleman]

We have a market that is balancing very precariously and talk is that today or tomorrow may prove a late day sell off. May or may not be today or tomorrow, but whenever the mood is like this it seems to come pretty quickly.

Does anyone think that SIRI will break down below .65? Yesterday it was being held at .67 pretty well until late afternoon then they let it go as the mkt sold. I figured they got their profit at .67 and couldn't take it up. .65 seems to be the hold today and we have bounce off this a couple of times in the last week.

Anybody got a feeling they would like to share?

Anybody have any technicals they want to share?

Tunes, I think we don't go much farther down, unless the whole market collapses. I sold 30,000 shares Tuesday for .68, I just bought them back at .6505, If my thinking is correct, I'll be selling these again next week around .68, I've been doing this for weeks now. It's been very profitable. It is possible that it goes to .63 or so, but I don't aim to make the biggest profit. I'm very happy with many small profits, they really add up as the months go by.

[Siriustunes]

Tunes, I think we don't go much farther down, unless the whole market collapses. I sold 30,000 shares Tuesday for .68, I just bought them back at .6505, If my thinking is correct, I'll be selling these again next week around .68, I've been doing this for weeks now. It's been very profitable. It is possible that it goes to .63 or so, but I don't aim to make the biggest profit. I'm very happy with many small profits, they really add up as the months go by.

Great strategy and I think you are in the sweet spot. I am just watching SIRI getting pressure from the downward sentiment of the market today. If the market sells off this afternoon, we may be in for more tomorrow.

[Siriustunes]

Tunes, I think we don't go much farther down, unless the whole market collapses. I sold 30,000 shares Tuesday for .68, I just bought them back at .6505, If my thinking is correct, I'll be selling these again next week around .68, I've been doing this for weeks now. It's been very profitable. It is possible that it goes to .63 or so, but I don't aim to make the biggest profit. I'm very happy with many small profits, they really add up as the months go by.

I am with ya. Just pulled the trigger at .6501. We may get a down day tomorrow, but no guarantees.

[Siriustunes]

We broke down below .65 I didn't think it would happen today.
I didn't see any gap to fill and .65 was showing great support.

I think the market pressure is getting to some. Or the MMs wanted to see if there was any panic selling. Doesn't look like a great deal is being let go under .65, so hopefully the resistance stays supportive.

[candleman]

We broke down below .65 I didn't think it would happen today.
I didn't see any gap to fill and .65 was showing great support.

I think the market pressure is getting to some. Or the MMs wanted to see if there was any panic selling. Doesn't look like a great deal is being let go under .65, so hopefully the resistance stays supportive.

Tunes, I think you'll be OK. The volume looks normal, so there doesn't seem to be a panic. Take a look at the overall market. We're down everywhere today.

[SiriuslyLong]

Anybody got a feeling they would like to share?

Anybody have any technicals they want to share?

Anyone here? LOL

SIRI is taking a small beating today. Below 65 already, but watch at close, it'll be > 65. It seems there's always some opposite movement at close.

Third quarter ends next week. Wow, was that fast or what? So, what will we see? My guess is same old same old - run up, CC, run down....

[candleman]

Anyone here? LOL

SIRI is taking a small beating today. Below 65 already, but watch at close, it'll be > 65. It seems there's always some opposite movement at close.

Third quarter ends next week. Wow, was that fast or what? So, what will we see? My guess is same old same old - run up, CC, run down....

I think you're right. It will be time to run up and take the profits. Let it sink and buy again. Same old, same old!

[Siriustunes]

Anyone here? LOL

SIRI is taking a small beating today. Below 65 already, but watch at close, it'll be > 65. It seems there's always some opposite movement at close.

Third quarter ends next week. Wow, was that fast or what? So, what will we see? My guess is same old same old - run up, CC, run down....

I would bet the same as well.

Since the quarter is almost over, lets start talking about the metrics we should see...positive and negative.

1. $$ for clunkers will boost subs, but how will it affect cap ex for equipment?
2. All auto makers ramped up production in August, how will that affect sub numbers and cost.
3. What kind of sub numbers may show up from Iphone app?
4. Did anyone ever determine if we will see an opex cost from Satellite launch?
5. Is SAC projected to continue decreasing?
6. What additional synergies from the merger may come into play this quarter?
7. How much will the refi deal help?
8. What else?

Are we going to start a pool on if SXM come in at -.01, breaks even, or shocks the world with a +.01 EPS for the quarter?

[Siriustunes]

Are the stop loss points kicking in? What a drop!