Sirius Weekly Thread Week of 8-31-2009

[Siriustunes]

couple of points:

1. Prepayments are booked as deferred revenue (a liability on the books), not revenue. Yes, they have the cash, but it is a liability until the contracted service is delivered.

2. SAC will be higher. The company already warned of this in Q2. Autos installations cost money, and that money goes against SAC.

3. The likliehood of Sirius reporting a positive EPS is very slim. They will have charges to the debt refinancing, and costs for chipsets for retail and oem's. Despite what some say, mark my words, they will have these costs. Don't get led down the path of believing everything you read.....including what I write. Some are more accurate than others. Some understand the metrics and finances better than others. Look at the history of a writer to establish the level of faith you can place on what they say.

Thanks Tyler. Deferring the revenue on the ledger makes sense, but they effectively have no further billing cost and the revenue is earning interest.

Have we ever heard what terms may have been renegotiated with GM that are more favorable for SXM? If I remember correctly, GM has a lifetime share on any GM Satrad sub no matter how long. Could this have been negotiated down so SXM could have a greater incentive to market to dormant Satrad owners?

I can wait til 2010 for positive EPS. I would just like to see them hit even for the rest of the year. How much more do they need? $40mil? $2.20/sub?

[relmor2003]

I thought it was going to pull back to around 0.65 only but evidently that was not the case. It looks like it is heading south for 0.50.

The flag formation is still valid. The formation is bullish. If the 0.50 is broken then the bullish formation is negated.

Anyway, I am glad I did not buy at 0.65.

Wheres your flag?

[sxminvestor]

I think what triggerred alot of the selling today was the scheduled traunch sales that were reported after hours. This happenned last time and then the stock rebounded the next day, so don't be surprised if the selling is over and we start to climb back over .65.

[Siriusowner]

Wheres your flag?

The formation started on 7/21-8/21, from 0.37 to 0.75. That steady run up is the pole. The body of the flag started on 8/24 and it is still being formed. I expected a pull back to 0.65 (but that was just a guess), I actually re-analized the formation and I think the pull back will actually be to 0.50 (50% retracement).

Remember the formation ? That's what I am seeing on a SIRI 60 day chart. Without the right side.

Spotting a flag with a naked eye is quite difficult. I have experience trading futures, where it is more common, that is why I can spot it easly.

Of course this is technical analysis... it may happen or it may not.

[bassmaster]

We have always referred to Downriver as being Wyandotte, Trenton, Lincoln Park, Southgate area. I believe Monroe is too far down, but I could be mistaken. Not likely though.

Julie

im havent been to any of those towns but i heard of them. i was in ann arbor and sterling heights until sunday. sterling heights/ metro detroit is just a ghost town with this recession. i feel really bad for all my friends and relatives that live there. the only signs of life was in the casino and people just give away their money. it was so depressing being there. ann arbor is just the polar opposite. very lively and thriving. i really liked that place. too bad UM football is gonna suck this year. go notre dame!!!!

[Sirius Roadkill]

The formation started on 7/21-8/21, from 0.37 to 0.75. That steady run up is the pole. The body of the flag started on 8/24 and it is still being formed. I expected a pull back to 0.65 (but that was just a guess), I actually re-analized the formation and I think the pull back will actually be to 0.50 (50% retracement).

Remember the formation ? That's what I am seeing on a SIRI 60 day chart. Without the right side.

Spotting a flag with a naked eye is quite difficult. I have experience trading futures, where it is more common, that is why I can spot it easly.

Of course this is technical analysis... it may happen or it may not.

Nice work SO . . appreciate your insight. Good discussion fodder while we scramble to figure this thing out . .

[MichGoBlue]

Hi MGB,

No, no vacation. Actually just the opposite. I drove Downriver (ever hear
of Downriver where you are? Wyandotte, where I grew up) I picked up my mom and brought her here to clean my refrig. So the past few days I've been supervising, making sure she doesn't take more than an hour lunch and two
15 minute breaks. Although Sunday I let her call it quits early. Day of rest
and all that She finished up yesterday afternoon and went back last night. So I would say a very productive 3 days.

Thanks for asking, it's nice to be missed.

Julie

Look at you at 50 posts. You're halfway to Senor Member already.

Good to hear from you! Don't get Downriver much, heck where I work in Northville is the east side for me. Hope your mom has a relaxing Labor Day weekend after her workout you coordinated!

You saw that too, I was wondering what would happen at 50, not much, oh well. I may get to 100 and be a "Senior Member", but I'll still be a rookie with all the talent on this board!

[MichGoBlue]

im havent been to any of those towns but i heard of them. i was in ann arbor and sterling heights until sunday. sterling heights/ metro detroit is just a ghost town with this recession. i feel really bad for all my friends and relatives that live there. the only signs of life was in the casino and people just give away their money. it was so depressing being there. ann arbor is just the polar opposite. very lively and thriving. i really liked that place. too bad UM football is gonna suck this year. go notre dame!!!!

It's gonna be a tough year for Michigan, but not as bad as last year. 6-6 I say. Looking forward to the notre dame game next week, always a great tailgating atmosphere, should be a good game too.

Time to Kick-off: 2 Days, 7 Hours, 37 Minutes, 28 sec.

[candleman]

Hi MGB,

No, no vacation. Actually just the opposite. I drove Downriver (ever hear
of Downriver where you are? Wyandotte, where I grew up) I picked up my mom and brought her here to clean my refrig. So the past few days I've been supervising, making sure she doesn't take more than an hour lunch and two
15 minute breaks. Although Sunday I let her call it quits early. Day of rest
and all that She finished up yesterday afternoon and went back last night. So I would say a very productive 3 days.

Thanks for asking, it's nice to be missed.

Julie

Look at you at 50 posts. You're halfway to Senor Member already.

Julie, you have your mom cleaning the frig???? Mine's a little messy, could she come to the beach and help out here? And actually, if you take a vacation and come with her, maybe the stock price will go up again.

[Siriustunes]

I know about a month or so back (it seems ages ago) the discussion around NASDAQ delisting was exchanged here on SB. Someone mentioned that it would be highly unlikely it would come to that as the MMs love this stock and do not want to see it delisted. So consequently they will allow the stock to make a run over $1.00. Is this thought shared by many? It makes sense to me, but I have no clue as to what the MMs want at any given time.
If so, what is thought on timing?