Sirius Weekly Thread Week of 8-31-2009

[candleman]

OK, we closed around .61... on pretty good volume.

I was able to pick up another 10K shares for a penny less than the close, so I feel pretty good.

Does anyone know the connection between XMCanada and Sirius? Are they two seperate companies, or just what is the deal? I saw an article today that the Canadian music producers and artists have sued XM over royalty payments. It appears that XM has not paid agreed upon royalties for the last 4 years. I'm just wondering how this affects us.

And somebody has got to take a vacation soon. It seems that's the only way we can run up the price on this stock...

[john]

OK, we closed around .61... on pretty good volume.

I was able to pick up another 10K shares for a penny less than the close, so I feel pretty good.

Does anyone know the connection between XMCanada and Sirius? Are they two seperate companies, or just what is the deal? I saw an article today that the Canadian music producers and artists have sued XM over royalty payments. It appears that XM has not paid agreed upon royalties for the last 4 years. I'm just wondering how this affects us.

And somebody has got to take a vacation soon. It seems that's the only way we can run up the price on this stock...

They are two seperate companies XM Canada has about 500,000 subs and SIRI Canada has about 1 million (that is a guess because SIRI of Canada is a private company that does not come out with as much information as Xm Canada). They both started about the same time, within 2 months of one another. I believe SIRIXM owns 29 % of XM of Canada and 50% of SIRI of Canada. Plus both get most (85% of their content and all their satellite support from SIRIXM). What they have paid for that so far, I do not know.

[Siriusowner]

Are you saying 50 cents or 50's because it is dropping hard again - now 0.605

Falling to 50 cents.

[candleman]

They are two seperate companies XM Canada has about 500,000 subs and SIRI Canada has about 1 million (that is a guess because SIRI of Canada is a private company that does not come out with as much information as Xm Canada). They both started about the same time, within 2 months of one another. I believe SIRIXM owns 29 % of XM of Canada and 50% of SIRI of Canada. Plus both get most (85% of their content and all their satellite support from SIRIXM). What they have paid for that so far, I do not know.

Thanks John!

[Siriustunes]

The Sky is falling and the socialist are in the white house,WOW,what the heck is going on here...
Been busy last week doing 3 Fantasy leagues and checking in from time to time,but not much going on until today's stop loss takedown,shame on you if you had one in on this stock..
I guess if you yell fire enough months, one will happen eventually(LA)EX:the crash is coming ,fundamentals don't support this run up(DOW,S&P,Nasdaq)
Bull crap,this is a normal stair recovery,up 25% down 15% soforth,all to scare out the wimps ans sell on way down,low usually and buy high...Been going on since 1929...we will hang in .60 ;s for awhile and maybe tickle high .50;s once a week,until better news or buyers show up...

Playing golf alot and just waiting for $1 sp to come on board,sooner than later.IMHO the rest can trade and get burned and fund the treasury with their taxes on Ben's huge gains...

Okay, good. Some serious talk on Sirius.

Had an interesting call with SXM call center rep.
In July, I received a promotion for 6 months at 4.99/mth. (Anyone else receive this promotion?) I took it as I did not have a current subscription. Today I called SXM to find out if the promotion is available for any existing non-subscriber as I was thinking of buying the promo for family members that have Satrads but do not subscribe. The answer was no, it is only offered to those that received the promotion letter. At first this seemed odd. Why wouldn't you want to bring on as many dormant satrads as possible? But then I thought, if this is a consistent marketing campaign every quarter it could provide a dependable new sub stream that can be predicted and has a low SAC factor.

I asked the guy how many new subs he personally signed up on this promotion and he said well over 100. Anyone know how many call centers and agents SXM has? The best thing is that the promotion is all paid up front, so SXM gets the revenue on the books right away.

If SXM can continue to lower the SAC and reduce G&A as efficiently as possible, we could see a 3rd quarter surprise of even EPS. Is this wishful thinking? Is SXM close enough to accomplish this in the 3rd quarter?

At some point SXM is going to beat estimates. Wouldn't you want to try to accomplish this going into the buying season and especially after a full year of merger synergies?

Just food for thought. We seemed to have gotten away from talking about the business fundamentals and how actions will get us to positive EPS.

[Sirius Roadkill]

Hey Hertz. That's the first time in a while it looked like the old days with that take down. Where the hell is SRK with his .72-.75 Poem???????????????????????????????????????

Here I is!

ok, that's 2 Sept trading days shot-in-the-ass now . . that leaves me with15.75 trading days left to prove-out my theorem . . it is not looking good socal, not looking good at all

Those bastards at Goldman Sachs must be screwing with Mel again . . yeah, that's the ticket . .

I will be here to take my daily lumps if needed . . unlike Jon Pluc and his bag of dimes who has mysteriously disappeared in the absence of a retrace to $0.41 . .

P.S. Edit . . the trimmed range is $0.71-$0.75 . . the untrimmed range with my 4% margin-of-error corridor is $0.68-$0.78 as confirmed and verified by Relmor on 8/30/09 . . Learn that Poem.

[MichGoBlue]

OK, we closed around .61... on pretty good volume.

I was able to pick up another 10K shares for a penny less than the close, so I feel pretty good.

Does anyone know the connection between XMCanada and Sirius? Are they two seperate companies, or just what is the deal? I saw an article today that the Canadian music producers and artists have sued XM over royalty payments. It appears that XM has not paid agreed upon royalties for the last 4 years. I'm just wondering how this affects us.

And somebody has got to take a vacation soon. It seems that's the only way we can run up the price on this stock...

I wonder if Julie did go on vacation, have not heard from her in a few days. When she chimmed in last time the sp went ^^^

Julie, where are you????????

Got some more at .62 today.

[Big Ben]

Siri is sliding my friend. We will retrench back to .55 and maybe even test the .4 handle again. My original prediction of testing .3 handle looks a little bold at this point. If we break the .4 handle and the rest of the world continues to crack, that prediction might not be so bold. I have no position in SIRI and most of my positions are shorting the market through ETF's. I am looking to add to FXP, FAZ on any major pull backs. Depending the strength of the pull back, I would look to start a new position in SIRI with 5k around the .57-.59 range, but if we are sliding fast into that range I usually wait to pull the trigger and most of the time its the right move. GLA, DYODD. Long way off from .77 eh? IMVHO...if you pulled nothing off the table in the .7 range you were greedy....we all know what happens to pigs!

Big Ben


Relmor, what are you doing with SIRI, entering or exiting?

[Big Ben]

Markets are about to get cranked. The bears are going to make the buy and hold crowd test their fortitude. I hope the general investor remembers that March 6th was the low and we have done nothing but climb ever since. Markets don't work that way, up and down they go. This market is so over cooked its scary. I was calling for down 6300 before dow 9000, I was very wrong on that one....does not really matter when your holding all cash. I started a position in BAC, XLF, C on Friday only to hedge my short positions, FXP, DOG, FAZ. I fully understand I am chasing the tape on those plays, the first three. Five years out BAC, C, F will be fine but in the short run I have a hunch I will be dollar cost averaging on those plays. I also sold my last 5k of siri on Friday for .7c. I am waiting on the pull back or a market crash...call it what ever you want. We will see the .5 handle again, don't get it twisted there is still an enormous short interest out there, but I do agree with Obone, Relmor, this stock is trading different and the shorts are not in control anymore. I believe the big short squeeze has not happened yet, that will be the payday with this pig, not .55-.77 in a week....that is free cash to any takers. GLA. Shave all positions with a gain or be the ahole left holding the bag. I have a hunch wall street is going to make main street remember this game is for the pros and you can and will lose principal.

Big Ben the Bear!

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Last edited by Big Ben; 08-31-2009 at 09:09 AM.

[TSavery]

Okay, good. Some serious talk on Sirius.
The best thing is that the promotion is all paid up front, so SXM gets the revenue on the books right away.

If SXM can continue to lower the SAC and reduce G&A as efficiently as possible, we could see a 3rd quarter surprise of even EPS. Is this wishful thinking? Is SXM close enough to accomplish this in the 3rd quarter?

At some point SXM is going to beat estimates. Wouldn't you want to try to accomplish this going into the buying season and especially after a full year of merger synergies?

Just food for thought. We seemed to have gotten away from talking about the business fundamentals and how actions will get us to positive EPS.

couple of points:

1. Prepayments are booked as deferred revenue (a liability on the books), not revenue. Yes, they have the cash, but it is a liability until the contracted service is delivered.

2. SAC will be higher. The company already warned of this in Q2. Autos installations cost money, and that money goes against SAC.

3. The likliehood of Sirius reporting a positive EPS is very slim. They will have charges to the debt refinancing, and costs for chipsets for retail and oem's. Despite what some say, mark my words, they will have these costs. Don't get led down the path of believing everything you read.....including what I write. Some are more accurate than others. Some understand the metrics and finances better than others. Look at the history of a writer to establish the level of faith you can place on what they say.