Good stuff. These formations can be weeks to months in the making. Best to keep an eye on the charts for now.Originally Posted by Siriusowner
SIRIUS XM SATELLITE RADIO FORUM
Good stuff. These formations can be weeks to months in the making. Best to keep an eye on the charts for now.
Its definately possible. These formations usually solve the the dominate trend in play. Hence up.
Only negative catalyst i see to justify a .61 hit, or .58, would be a medium term or long short term down move in the NASDAQ. I dont see the company helping here. No worries. Auto news tomorrow. Perfect start possibly to help that up move short term, but will still continue in the .78 to .65 range, hence further consolidation required to break out. Medium to longer term, I see the longest case scenario being on the Q3 run up. $1 is definately possible before the CC.
Look at the volume... The volume has been diminishing...Its definately possible. These formations usually solve the the dominate trend in play. Hence up.
I'll start loading up in 10,000 share weekly batches, this looks like a good swing trade.
We need declining volume, as my volume chart suggests, before another major up move can form. This has been a very long time for high volume, historically for the year anyway. I think I know what your thinking. How long do you think this consolidation period will last?
If the stock hits 0.61 or 0.58, it will still be a flag formation... the only way this formation is negated is if the retracement reaches the base of the pole and/or below.Its definately possible. These formations usually solve the the dominate trend in play. Hence up.
Only negative catalyst i see to justify a .61 hit, or .58, would be a medium term or long short term down move in the NASDAQ. I dont see the company helping here. No worries. Auto news tomorrow. Perfect start possibly to help that up move short term, but will still continue in the .78 to .65 range, hence further consolidation required to break out. Medium to longer term, I see the longest case scenario being on the Q3 run up. $1 is definately possible before the CC.
Hey Siriusowner, it's nice to hear a little bit of the bull from you.
I have to believe that the way SIRI has traded in the last 12 months has been very abnormal. For those of us who have owned this stock for several years. It appears to be behaving like it used to.
Getting in now at any price in the 60's will be a good long term move. Quite a few folks are still waiting for the 40's to come back. I don't believe that those folks have been a fan of the company for very long. I think they got interested in the last 6 to 12 months. And like I said, those have been abnormal.
I have a buy in today for .655. We'll see if it fills.
Word.
It is difficult to say, I think it will last until a week or two weeks before the 3rd quarter earnings announcement... about 8-10 weeks ? This is definitely a medium term swing trade... or an entry point for long term investors.
Last edited by Siriusowner; 08-31-2009 at 11:02 AM.
I was looking at downward pressure on the buy side and .63 looked to stay pretty steady. Also, I look back at the retraction trends relative to volume lulls. Didn't materialize, but that is a good thing.
I am sure your analysis is much more solid in technicals and in fact is proving so today. The one thing I did not consider in the pps support for today is that the car sales numbers come out tomorrow. They are estimating over 1 million for August. That is probably giving some support today and should provide a bump in the pps tomorrow.
The auto manufacturers will need to keep the momentum going as they are calling back workers and ramping up production. My brother works for a very large auto dealer and he said GM, F and Chrysler had some big incentive plans on the schedule before Cash 4 Clunks was passed. I am wondering if they will roll these out in Sept to keep the buying momentum going. I think you see the beginnings of significant promotions with Chrysler and Kia.
I have to say, I am impressed with how SIRI held up today with all the majors down (sans FTSE). It seemed there was a lot of pressure trying to hold down the pps at the close. If they would have let it go it would have probably closed close to even. It is amazing to watch the last 5 minutes of trading with this stock. Seeing an ask of 100 share trades, from 4 or 5 different sources all at the same price jumping ahead of a significantly higher ask to hold down the pps makes me feel confident that this stock will soar soon. If it takes that much effort to hold the cork on, then one day it will pop. Hopefully we all will profit when the grip is loosened.
Tomorrow will be interesting with the car sales numbers. Upward revisions of annualized sales should be discussed tomorrow as well.
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