Originally Posted by
john
First of all if you were a teacher of mine, I would burn the school down and start from scrath.
As for 1.) As said before and to get it through your dumb thick skull, I will say it again. SIRIXM as I have been saying for the longest time (and now SIRIXM is started to say) WILL NEVER BE AT A FULL PENETRATION. As a matter of fact you can start to look for a reduction of the penetration rate in the future. Mel basically said it himself when he said that they went to far to fast into the lower priced models and that it was not being cost effective to go into those lower cost models.
As for Canada, Mexico and anything else, It may have slipped your feeble mind but Canada is already a seperate company that SIRIXM owns a portion of, that while they will get a portion of that businesses revenue (to include payment for the content and satellite support) That it has taken 3 years for them to get up to a combined (If you put both SIRI and XMSR together) 1.1 million subscribers. Mexico anything else, will (if they ever get that far) will most likely be done on the same model as Canada.
As for 2.) You say we are talking about the future, well I would at least like to talk about my future investment in the company or least my kids or grandkids, something in the 21st century would be nice. Look you dipwad do you even know what the ARPU was when they first started about 8.5 years ago was. Go check it out,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,are you done yet? If so, you found out that it really as not changed (and had actually gone down from the high) and while that will change in the coming quarters it will not change that much when considering the 15 dollar price tag you are talking about. So even if we take the new price increases into effect, the total ARPU will at most go up to 11.5 to 12. That is a at most a total increase of 1.5 dollars in the last 8.5 years.
Your analyst of this is filled with contradictions. You want to inclulde everyone (the masses) yet you then forget there is only so much the masses will pay for radio. There is a reason it took SIRI 8 years to do its first increase.
As for 3. and 4.) They are just wrong. You have 3. as 150 million, should that not be 1.5 billion or 4. should be 1.8 billion according to what you have for 3. If this is how you calculate your numbers is it any wonder why you are confused.
As for 5., 6., 7., 8., 9., 10., 11.) They are based on a seriously flawed and weak foundation so they will not stand up to the facts and therefore are false.
doctorex, You need to go back to school, actually I would not go back to the same one that you went to before. You better change because the one you went to has not done its job.