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  1. Siriusowner is offline
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    08-27-2009, 08:24 PM #21
    Quote Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong View Post
    The stock market bottomed out in March. That's a fact. John is right though; we need some positive growth. Technically, a recession is 3 quarters of negative growth; am I correct? If so, wouldn't we need three quarters of positive growth to signify the end? My point was that my plant is making something of substance for the first time is ~9 months - a good sign.

    I do agree though that if people are seeing their 401k's growing, it will help sentiment.
    You are correct (technically there need to be only 2 neg quarters to declare a recession) and you have to add that the negative GDP quarters (not necessarly negative growth) have to be consecutive, very important !

    ps: I also agree, the stock market bottomed out in March, not the economy.... they are correlated but they are not the same thing.

  2. Siriusowner is offline
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    08-27-2009, 08:27 PM #22
    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    I am almost positive that it is 2 quarters not 3.
    That is a technicallity but you are correct (who cares if it is 2 or 10... the fact is that people suffers in a recession no matter what).

  3. Siriusowner is offline
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    08-27-2009, 08:41 PM #23
    Quote Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong View Post
    I wouldn't call foreign companies making things here a silver lining. The bottom line is that wealth flows out of the USA. One thing I have learned through my travels is that most nations have a strong national identity. I've worked with a French company who sourced French plastics. Same with Korea (Hyundai) and Japan. Trust me on this, the Japanese car makers prefer Japanese tier ones and Japanese plastics suppliers. This is not arguable. The Japanese also prefer Japanese brands. Living here in Ann Arbor, we have a large Asian community. Stand on the corner of Wastenaw and Huron River Drive and simply count the number of Asians and what they drive. On the other hand, we American's are a true "melting pot". We buy anything.
    Finally, this is an interesting thread.

    Siriusly - You have traveled, as a business person (one thing is to travel for leisure and another for business), I assume internationally. What do you think differentiates the US from he rest of world ? It is not the nationalism. As you correctly stated, most nations of the world are highly nationalistic (why do you think there are more leftist goverments than centrist or right wing?)... anyway... The US needs to differentiate itself by its leadership ! We ( yes we, you, me, etc...) need to be the leaders of the world. We need to move from a manufacturing society to a service society.... let the India's and China's of the world be the blue collars... let them be !!! we should be the ones telling them what to manufacture, how to market it and how and where to sell it !!! Who cares if I buy a Nissan made in Mexico, WHO CARES ???... especially if I am the one with the $$$ and POWER !!!
    Last edited by Siriusowner; 08-27-2009 at 08:45 PM.

  4. SiriuslyLong is offline
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    08-31-2009, 11:01 AM #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Siriusowner View Post
    Finally, this is an interesting thread.

    Siriusly - You have traveled, as a business person (one thing is to travel for leisure and another for business), I assume internationally. What do you think differentiates the US from he rest of world ? It is not the nationalism. As you correctly stated, most nations of the world are highly nationalistic (why do you think there are more leftist goverments than centrist or right wing?)... anyway... The US needs to differentiate itself by its leadership ! We ( yes we, you, me, etc...) need to be the leaders of the world. We need to move from a manufacturing society to a service society.... let the India's and China's of the world be the blue collars... let them be !!! we should be the ones telling them what to manufacture, how to market it and how and where to sell it !!! Who cares if I buy a Nissan made in Mexico, WHO CARES ???... especially if I am the one with the $$$ and POWER !!!
    I have to disagree with you. Manufacturing might has enabled the US to lead the world - as that goes, so does our clout. Some believe manufacturing is why we won WW2. Having a sound manufacturing infrastructure is should be a national priority. Imagine calling the French for help fighting a war? All this, not to mention jobs. The masses need employment.

    Are you familiar with Peter Schiff? I don't embrace all of his ideas, but he cites that the US needs to be a nation of producers and savers versus a nation of consumers and spenders. A service economy produces nothing.

  5. Siriusowner is offline
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    08-31-2009, 02:19 PM #25
    Quote Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong View Post
    I have to disagree with you. Manufacturing might has enabled the US to lead the world - as that goes, so does our clout. Some believe manufacturing is why we won WW2. Having a sound manufacturing infrastructure is should be a national priority. Imagine calling the French for help fighting a war? All this, not to mention jobs. The masses need employment.

    Are you familiar with Peter Schiff? I don't embrace all of his ideas, but he cites that the US needs to be a nation of producers and savers versus a nation of consumers and spenders. A service economy produces nothing.
    I thought you may say something like that. You used the word "nationalism" in your previous post.

    In economics, like in other theoretical disciplines, a discussion on concepts and definitions usually derives from the interest in some specific phenomenon under investigation. I have been in discussions about the concept of "service economy" and it has usually been resumed as the interest in the ongoing "structural change" of the capitalist economies.

    The partially overlapping notions of “service economy”, “tertiary”, “post-industrial”, “new” economy have been used to characterize the latest stage of capitalist development. We as the leaders of the world, need to move forward not backward. The "service economy" or "post-industrial economy" is the next step in our evolution as a nation.

    I hope none of y'all want to go back to a pre-wold war II economy. I did not immigrate to this country to watch my kids become what they can become in the mother land... I have always said that this is the land of opportunity and we did not come here because of "the american dream", the "american dream" is for lazy people... we came here to work intelligently and to prosper.... work bulding cars or homes ? we can do that in the mother land.

    BTW: I am an engineer with an MBA, I work as a manager and consultant (a service) my daugther will be starting medical school soon, my son wants to be a dentist and my youngest daugther is still undecided but she will be a "service person", like her brothers and dad who will not be producing anything but a service....

    PS: No, I am not familiar with Peter Schiff. I googled the guy and if I think that if he is the guy that came up on wikipedia, he's got the equation correct but he needs to add that the US needs to be producing services, not goods. Those services need to be sold to other nations in exchange for goods.

    Oh and BTW, I stongly disagree with your last sentence. If it is true then obviously the US presidency is just a clown office....doctors are quite unproductive, police officers are "monigotes" in uniforms, firemen are nothing more than "apagafuegos" and don't let me continue... the US armed forces are.... All those people provide a very valuable service.... just because they do not make or assemble something does not mean they are not producing something.
    Last edited by Siriusowner; 08-31-2009 at 02:59 PM.

  6. SiriuslyLong is offline
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    08-31-2009, 05:39 PM #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Siriusowner View Post
    I thought you may say something like that. You used the word "nationalism" in your previous post.

    In economics, like in other theoretical disciplines, a discussion on concepts and definitions usually derives from the interest in some specific phenomenon under investigation. I have been in discussions about the concept of "service economy" and it has usually been resumed as the interest in the ongoing "structural change" of the capitalist economies.

    The partially overlapping notions of “service economy”, “tertiary”, “post-industrial”, “new” economy have been used to characterize the latest stage of capitalist development. We as the leaders of the world, need to move forward not backward. The "service economy" or "post-industrial economy" is the next step in our evolution as a nation.

    I hope none of y'all want to go back to a pre-wold war II economy. I did not immigrate to this country to watch my kids become what they can become in the mother land... I have always said that this is the land of opportunity and we did not come here because of "the american dream", the "american dream" is for lazy people... we came here to work intelligently and to prosper.... work bulding cars or homes ? we can do that in the mother land.

    BTW: I am an engineer with an MBA, I work as a manager and consultant (a service) my daugther will be starting medical school soon, my son wants to be a dentist and my youngest daugther is still undecided but she will be a "service person", like her brothers and dad who will not be producing anything but a service....

    PS: No, I am not familiar with Peter Schiff. I googled the guy and if I think that if he is the guy that came up on wikipedia, he's got the equation correct but he needs to add that the US needs to be producing services, not goods. Those services need to be sold to other nations in exchange for goods.

    Oh and BTW, I stongly disagree with your last sentence. If it is true then obviously the US presidency is just a clown office....doctors are quite unproductive, police officers are "monigotes" in uniforms, firemen are nothing more than "apagafuegos" and don't let me continue... the US armed forces are.... All those people provide a very valuable service.... just because they do not make or assemble something does not mean they are not producing something.
    I don't know where to start on this. So let me start here. I'm a chemist with an MBA. My daughter is 4 and she wants to be a ballarina. The other is 8 and wants to be an artist. I'm going to steer her into industrial design where ideas come to life (the first step in making something LOL).

    Your point about police, firemen, armed forces is obvious, and out of context to the discussion, or what I think is the discussion - what differentiates America from the rest of the world. Well, there's an easy answer as we are already are the greatest nation on Earth. We have freedoms others do not enjoy. We have had "the American dream" whereby you can easily gain employment, save money, produce buy a house and have 2.5 children... We got there, in part, through producing. I believe your point of view is that we can be greater nation yet if transition to a service economy. I will then agree to disagree. By letting the India's and China's take weath out of our economy, we are only hurting ourselves. Perhaps to sell services will ensure our future greatness, but with the dismantling of American manufacturing, we lost our base to build on.

    This is not theoretical. Simply drive through an Industrial Park and look at the empty buildings where American USED to produce goods and services (how's that?). Anyway, nice discussion. I've got to produce a freshly cut lawn or my wife will send me to bed with no dinner.

  7. Dr. Dave is offline
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    09-01-2009, 07:19 AM #27
    The clue I'm looking for is the SHX to have a little recovery. If the ships aren't moving, then there aren't products moving.

    Thus far you may have "market leaders" like GS that took off last november, that made an almost perfect 61.8% retractment - part of that was because we paid for it.



    But what about the banks who's execs didn't get 12% of the huge handout Xmas bonus gifts for doing such a great job at running us into the ground?

    Not even 38.2% yet, and their 13/34 ema cross just happened this month, and that includes some of our geniuses...


    Not to mention, it's best to measure the success of a rally from the high's, not the recent low...

    Anyway, back to the SHX - I don't see anything worth writing home about... so I'm not buying that we pulled out of a recession... the daily looks worse at the moment.



    My 2 cents

  8. john is offline
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    09-01-2009, 12:33 PM #28
    Dr. Dave, that is because with not even one quarter of positive GDP to be found yet, we have not.



    SiriuslyLong, do you really think that China or India with over 1.5 billion people each could not out manufacture the US or any other country for that matter. The thing that has kept them from advancing is the fact that the ideas are not there. The biggest problem the US and other countries have had with China is their blatant copying of other peoples ideas. That had to be stopped, the reason why is because we know they can out manufacture us. They would and did just copy an idea and manufacture that idea much cheaper then we could, therefore there was no need for them to buy American products. That is begining to stop, American companies realize the best way to get to Chinas consumers is to get their foot in the door. A perfect example is how Toyota has done this by producing some of their product in the US. If I have heard it once, I have heard it a thousand times, "Well it is ok to buy a Toyota because they have factories here in America that create American jobs." Toyota just did it to America and many think they were intelligent for doing it. So the question is if Toyota was inteligent for doing it then wouldn't the US companies be smart to do it to China. There was no other logical reason for Toyota to produce cars in the US except to put one over on the American people (which it worked). It was then and is now alot cheaper to produce the product somewhere else and bring it into the US.


    Siriusowner, is correct the way forward is to look forward and not back. The future is in the ideas and who gets them first (or innovation).

  9. SiriuslyLong is offline
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    09-01-2009, 03:20 PM #29
    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    Dr. Dave, that is because with not even one quarter of positive GDP to be found yet, we have not.



    SiriuslyLong, do you really think that China or India with over 1.5 billion people each could not out manufacture the US or any other country for that matter. The thing that has kept them from advancing is the fact that the ideas are not there. The biggest problem the US and other countries have had with China is their blatant copying of other peoples ideas. That had to be stopped, the reason why is because we know they can out manufacture us. They would and did just copy an idea and manufacture that idea much cheaper then we could, therefore there was no need for them to buy American products. That is begining to stop, American companies realize the best way to get to Chinas consumers is to get their foot in the door. A perfect example is how Toyota has done this by producing some of their product in the US. If I have heard it once, I have heard it a thousand times, "Well it is ok to buy a Toyota because they have factories here in America that create American jobs." Toyota just did it to America and many think they were intelligent for doing it. So the question is if Toyota was inteligent for doing it then wouldn't the US companies be smart to do it to China. There was no other logical reason for Toyota to produce cars in the US except to put one over on the American people (which it worked). It was then and is now alot cheaper to produce the product somewhere else and bring it into the US.


    Siriusowner, is correct the way forward is to look forward and not back. The future is in the ideas and who gets them first (or innovation).
    I have no problem with US companies taking positions in India and China and making goods there to sell to these emerging nations. In fact I endorse it. Several of my customers manufacture in China for the Chinese market. I'm glad to report that many of those who manufactured in China for the US market have had second thoughts, and brought production back to the US. It ain't easy to manage things 3000 miles away, and like I said previously, Chinese like Chinese suppliers, even if their paint is full of lead and their drywall full of hydrogen sulfide producing substances.

    Here's a case study in manufacturing, or the lack thereof. There is a lot of hype regarding hybrid vehicles. Well, we have so little manufacturing infrastructure, experience and know how, that it is nearly impossible for us to compete in the production of the batteries used in these vehicle. Enter a Korean firm. Tell me how beneficial that is to the US that we have to rely on other nations manufacturing technology and experience? This is just one case study. This is not a case of "out manufacturing", this is exactly what you guys are saying -- that we need to look forward, be innovative and show leadership.

  10. Siriusowner is offline
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    09-01-2009, 03:26 PM #30
    Quote Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong View Post
    I don't know where to start on this. So let me start here. I'm a chemist with an MBA. My daughter is 4 and she wants to be a ballarina. The other is 8 and wants to be an artist. I'm going to steer her into industrial design where ideas come to life (the first step in making something LOL).

    Your point about police, firemen, armed forces is obvious, and out of context to the discussion, or what I think is the discussion - what differentiates America from the rest of the world. Well, there's an easy answer as we are already are the greatest nation on Earth. We have freedoms others do not enjoy. We have had "the American dream" whereby you can easily gain employment, save money, produce buy a house and have 2.5 children... We got there, in part, through producing. I believe your point of view is that we can be greater nation yet if transition to a service economy. I will then agree to disagree. By letting the India's and China's take weath out of our economy, we are only hurting ourselves. Perhaps to sell services will ensure our future greatness, but with the dismantling of American manufacturing, we lost our base to build on.

    This is not theoretical. Simply drive through an Industrial Park and look at the empty buildings where American USED to produce goods and services (how's that?). Anyway, nice discussion. I've got to produce a freshly cut lawn or my wife will send me to bed with no dinner.
    You want to know what differentiates America from the rest of the world ?... Its precisely that, its people !

    If we continue this discussion we will never end and keep going in circles. You have your point of view and I have mine. You think we should be workers, I think we should be leaders ... You look back, I look forward, You think there's a place for the mfg. working class in the US, I think that place is China and India... Granted, there will always be blue collar workers, otherwise who would clean, cook, mow lawns, cut hair, harvest, etc... (but even those are services)... As far as mfg., I do not think there's a place for that in the US anymore... We should be researching, developing, selling, marketing, managing, innovating and exporting our great inventions and ideas to the world, etc ... The masses ? We'll they must evolve too or die (be crushed ?).

    I've seen those empty buildings, I lived in CT in one of the towns where Steven Spielberg filmed parts of "War of the Worlds" with Tom Cruise. If you watch the movie, you'll see towards the end of the movie an old building being destroyed by one of the invaders, an abandoned quarry process building, the building exists in Naugatuck, CT and like that building there are thousands accross just CT... where do you think the people or their descendants of the people that work there are working today ? Even ITT, my employer in CT, had an assembly facility that they closed, the people that worked there ? retired most of them but some of their kids (my co-workers) were working with me as drafters, engineers, executive assistants, etc... not as a mfg. worker.... and they were better off than their parents !!!

    Anyway, we must look for ways to evolve, if we do not evolve then we truly will be crushed by the China's and India's... we must be one step ahead of them and we must not look to them as our equals, we are far superior, socially, economically and technologically. They must look up to us for leadership, not viceversa.
    Last edited by Siriusowner; 09-01-2009 at 03:29 PM.

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