SIRI Weekly Thread for 8-17-09

[proactiv]

DOCTOREX DECLARES $90 PER SIRI SHARE IS POSSIBLE. BUY. BUY. BUY.

Hi doc,
I love it when you talk like that.
I can remember buying Mindspring in the early 80's at around $5 and watching it go to $90.

[relmor2003]

Hey good news John. If this trend up continues, you never have to buy more shares, and you can finally get out of this pig!!!
Im beginning to regret this stock not acting like a pig anymore. I miss bitching. But something tells me Ill be back bitching again soon enough.

[RunCatalina]

Please refer to the previous analysis by doctorex indicating that $17 per share is a reasonable steady state mature price for SIRI.

$17 IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

there are about 250,000,000 SIRI target vehicles in the u.s.a. of these, about 40%, let us say, hate advertising so much that, once exposed to siri, they will be lifetime customers. this corresponds to the current 44% long-term take-up rate among new car buyers. this represents a fully mature count of about 100 million subs. count doctorex among this group.

100 million subs at $15 per month is $1.5 billion per month revenue, or about $18 billion annual revenue.

at least half of this would be pure GAAP profit. prove it by looking at the last quarterly report. total SIRI expenses for everything, including financing, etc., are about $700 million quarterly, or $8 billion annual. variable costs are almost zero, because the satellites are in place already, and all management has to do to service additional subs is basically to throw a switch and turn on their receivers.

therefore 100 million subs would represent revenue of about $18 billion and profit, let us say, because of low variable cost, of about $1 billion per month, or $12 billion per year. (this particular step is based on conservative assumptions.)

apply a p/e. considering the strong prospects outlined, a p/e of 30 is reasonable. ebay, msft, and google were all p/e of 100 or higher at some point.

this calculates to enterprise value of $360 billion, which is approximately the value of GE or MSFT at their high points. this is a little bit high, maybe, but not by much, if we have 100 million subs.

divide total enterprise value by 4 billion shares, and voila, $90 per share.

DOCTOREX DECLARES $90 PER SIRI SHARE IS POSSIBLE. BUY. BUY. BUY.

FWIW, SIRI was above $40/share for most of 2000 with a high above $60/share. Not sure that it can ever attain those levels again.

Kicking myself now though for selling 60% of my position yesterday at $0.60. (got triggered on a stop limit order)

[MichGoBlue]

Hey good news John. If this trend up continues, you never have to buy more shares, and you can finally get out of this pig!!!
Im beginning to regret this stock not acting like a pig anymore. I miss bitching. But something tells me Ill be back bitching again soon enough.

^^^^^
When this happens (relmor bitching), I buy.

[relmor2003]

^^^^^
When this happens (relmor bitching), I buy.

Been a terrilble buy signal this month. Havent bitched since July. LOL

[john]

[QUOTE=lloyd Handwerker;48346]

First relmor, you just butcherd and then bastardized the word "twit". Second I forget is Siriusowner the same guy that tried to use a poll on these forums to try and show how much of a percentage of family plans SIRIXM had, which was way over schewed and there by showed the family plans to be way higher then common sense and logic (not to mention what XMSR/SIRI/SIRIXM said they were) would dictate. Who then tried to defend the results after I and then Tyler showed his results could not possible be.





P.S. You see lloyd I also tear apart other false polls.




LOL.
Was that the Msnbc poll or NBC/Wall street Journal poll you were talking about?

Too bad you can't always distinquish between the false and the truthful polls.
Dont worry there will be plenty more polls coming along to show Fox viewers level of misinformation though I have no hope that you will ever believe anything other than what you want to believe. Death panels anyone?

I dont care where the poll comes from if it is wrong then it is wrong common sense if you have any will tell you if a poll can be believed or not. Fox viewers have been more correct then the rest so far, history shows that. Just take a look at what has happen to your (the health care) bill. I have to ask you, how many times are they going to change the bill and change what they are saying about it before you get it. FOX told you that the people protesting at the town halls where not republican right wingers but just people that are mad and dont what this big expensive government controled health care, while all the other news outlets where calling the people wackos. Well well what as happen most of the democrats have had to back track in what they called the people and say it is ok to protest. Everyone that watched FOX already knew what the democrat congress members just figured out, they really should start to watch more FOX and less MSNBC. They really remind me of that Bagdad Bob as the US tanks are rolling into the town he was saying they are nowhere near the city.

[aosborn]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/JD-Pow...&asset=&ccode=

[john]

Please refer to the previous analysis by doctorex indicating that $17 per share is a reasonable steady state mature price for SIRI.

$17 IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

there are about 250,000,000 SIRI target vehicles in the u.s.a. of these, about 40%, let us say, hate advertising so much that, once exposed to siri, they will be lifetime customers. this corresponds to the current 44% long-term take-up rate among new car buyers. this represents a fully mature count of about 100 million subs. count doctorex among this group.

100 million subs at $15 per month is $1.5 billion per month revenue, or about $18 billion annual revenue.

at least half of this would be pure GAAP profit. prove it by looking at the last quarterly report. total SIRI expenses for everything, including financing, etc., are about $700 million quarterly, or $8 billion annual. variable costs are almost zero, because the satellites are in place already, and all management has to do to service additional subs is basically to throw a switch and turn on their receivers.

therefore 100 million subs would represent revenue of about $18 billion and profit, let us say, because of low variable cost, of about $1 billion per month, or $12 billion per year. (this particular step is based on conservative assumptions.)

apply a p/e. considering the strong prospects outlined, a p/e of 30 is reasonable. ebay, msft, and google were all p/e of 100 or higher at some point.

this calculates to enterprise value of $360 billion, which is approximately the value of GE or MSFT at their high points. this is a little bit high, maybe, but not by much, if we have 100 million subs.

divide total enterprise value by 4 billion shares, and voila, $90 per share.

DOCTOREX DECLARES $90 PER SIRI SHARE IS POSSIBLE. BUY. BUY. BUY.

doctorex, are you a nutball? First of all you forget that out of that 250 million that you use a 44% take rate. the problem with that is that they started with the higher end models so that take rate will drop as the penitration rate gosd up it will most likely drop alot more or if they stay in the higher end models then that will cut you total of 250 million down by a big portion. I will not even get into your figure of total revenue due to, it is clear you dont even take into the account "family plans" and the lower revenue they would bring in. You should at least get used to ARPU which is 10.66 at present so at the very least when you multiply use that number not the 15 dollar number.

Your numbers are terrible and you really should think about them a little more before you post on this subject again.

[john]

Hey good news John. If this trend up continues, you never have to buy more shares, and you can finally get out of this pig!!!
Im beginning to regret this stock not acting like a pig anymore. I miss bitching. But something tells me Ill be back bitching again soon enough.

I know I am just out of the .11 and entered the .15 mark.

You know that I consider that even if I bought at .07 and then sold at .27 and then bought back and sold that lot again even if the last buy for that lot was .34 I think of it as the .07 lot I originally started with. It is just an easyer way for me to keep track of all the lots I have (I started buying back and have lots at a PPS of 3.98, and have about a hundred lots between 4 and .07, sad I know), not that I keep it from .15 to .68.

[Sirius Roadkill]

divide total enterprise value by 4 billion shares

setting all your other assumptions aside . . and not trying to dampen your enthusiasm . . .

but where in your analysis do you factor-in Liberty Media's preferred shares (representing a 40% ownership interest) that are convertible to common stock?