SIRI IntraWEEK Thread 08-03-09

[john]

Those who disregard EBITDA are not fitting the other puzzle pieces together . . it is not a standalone metric;

EBITDA may be instructive, though not controlling, relative to its correlation to GAAP profit

If the Company guides-up to $400mm EBITDA on Thursday . . the correlation to potential full-year GAAP profit can no longer be ignored; the analysts sitting at $0.75-$1.00 targets have already factored it in . .

I believe they need at this point 475 to 500 million in EBITDA to be GAAP positive taking the last few right downs and payoffs into account

[Sirius Roadkill]

After hours i already down .0048 could that mean something??? I hope not i do agree this company has the potential for the future but losing subs does not help so i say tomorow when looking at this stock be very careful of what u wish for!!!

I'm with davey on this one romo . . .

be very careful of what u wish for (jk)



goliath

[Sirius Roadkill]

I believe they need at this point 475 to 500 million in EBITDA to be GAAP positive taking the last few right downs and payoffs into account

You are probably right . .

[davey1975]

This actually happened in the 1st quarter earnings the stock was on the way up when the earnings were released it was down i believe .05 -.10 that day idk if im correct but it was down. Today 8/3 the stock is up to almost .55 cents up .0697 at close what will it be tommorow??? My prediction i would say down in the morning maybe .02 or .03 maybe more BUT rebounding in the afternoon finishing unchanged (.00) anybody agree?????

[Sirius Roadkill]

This actually happened in the 1st quarter earnings the stock was on the way up when the earnings were released it was down i believe .05 -.10 that day idk if im correct but it was down. Today 8/3 the stock is up to almost .55 cents up .0697 at close what will it be tommorow??? My prediction i would say down in the morning maybe .02 or .03 maybe more BUT rebounding in the afternoon finishing unchanged (.00) anybody agree?????

hmmm . . by any chance is your last name "LaRocca"

[davey1975]

no but good try!!!

[SiriusBuzz]

hmmm . . by any chance is your last name "LaRocca"

I dont get it but, if you think that davey is me... I dont agree with what he is saying.

[underway]

This actually happened in the 1st quarter earnings the stock was on the way up when the earnings were released it was down i believe .05 -.10 that day idk if im correct but it was down. Today 8/3 the stock is up to almost .55 cents up .0697 at close what will it be tommorow??? My prediction i would say down in the morning maybe .02 or .03 maybe more BUT rebounding in the afternoon finishing unchanged (.00) anybody agree?????

I think it's going up tomorrow as part of the CC run up. After that, who the F knows......
If 'roadkill' is right....and I tend to agree, we could see the SP soar on Thurs after the CC. True, the sub loss won't be pretty, but merger synergies and pos cash flow, and some good guidance could be a real winner on the street, especially if there is a sense of auto industry rebound and overall economic recovery still in the air.

[toxdoc]

I think it's going up tomorrow as part of the CC run up. After that, who the F knows......
If 'roadkill' is right....and I tend to agree, we could see the SP soar on Thurs after the CC. True, the sub loss won't be pretty, but merger synergies and pos cash flow, and some good guidance could be a real winner on the street, especially if there is a sense of auto industry rebound and overall economic recovery still in the air.

This stock will never soar as long as it posts significant sub losses. Their whole business model depends on it. Synergies and cost-cutting have been good for the bottom line, but that will only carry SXM so far. They need to increase top line revenue. Remember, the street is forward looking. Right now, the street sees declining subs with a mountain of debt in the future.

I think we are looking at usual run up to CC followed by pound down afterwards. The run up will only be sustained once SXM starts showing increase in sub numbers, which won't happen this time. And Mel is deliberate about not providing much guidance.

[proactiv]

This stock will never soar as long as it posts significant sub losses. Their whole business model depends on it. Synergies and cost-cutting have been good for the bottom line, but that will only carry SXM so far. They need to increase top line revenue. Remember, the street is forward looking. Right now, the street sees declining subs with a mountain of debt in the future.

I think we are looking at usual run up to CC followed by pound down afterwards. The run up will only be sustained once SXM starts showing increase in sub numbers, which won't happen this time. And Mel is deliberate about not providing much guidance.

Well stated, and my opinion as well.