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  1. john is offline
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    05-06-2009, 07:35 AM #51
    I just have to say, if anyone thinks there is going to be a positive sub number they are crazy. As a matter of fact if SIRIXM reported a positive sub number, I would want to see their numbers, unless I see a really low APRU number. Look it is simple logic while 4th quarter and 1st quarter have been getting closer in subs added there is still a big difference and with only 80,000 subs added in the 4th quarter people better start to expect at least 200,000 subs lost, and that is with them screwing with the sub count. Homer you know what I am talking about and you know full well they are able to play with the sub count up to at least 200,000 subs. I dont know what people are pinning their hopes on a positive number on. I mean really has there been a big advertising campaign I missed? Did the Iphone app already come out? The point is, there is nothing that would give any hope of some surprise positive number (or even close to it). I can already see the headlines for the articles that will come out, "SIRIXM revenue up, but loses subs" or the reverse "SIRIXM loses subs but revenue beats estimates".

  2. trippingthespeculatingpos is offline
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    05-06-2009, 07:47 AM #52
    do you really think 1st quarter was that much worse than 4th quarter? diff is things were improving end of 1st qtr and they were getting worse at the end of the 4th, im hoping that makes the diff. not to mention the bk was off the table half of 1st quarter, christmas subs not being activated till 1st qtr.

  3. john is offline
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    05-06-2009, 08:38 AM #53
    Quote Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos View Post
    do you really think 1st quarter was that much worse than 4th quarter? diff is things were improving end of 1st qtr and they were getting worse at the end of the 4th, im hoping that makes the diff. not to mention the bk was off the table half of 1st quarter, christmas subs not being activated till 1st qtr.

    The problem with all that is 4th quarter was always better because of Chrismas. The reverse is also true and why the 1st quarter has a worse churn rate because the subs from last year are not renewing and because the year prior was better then now you have a terrible churn, it works in reverse when the economy and sub numbers start to pick up. For instance if the subs start to pick up then the churn for next 1 st quarter (2010) will not be so bad because the adds from this year were terrible. Finally you just dont have the catalist like Chrismas in the 1st quarter that you have in the 4th quarter. The only saving grace (and it will be a big one) for this quarter is going to be the other metrics improving greatly.

  4. trippingthespeculatingpos is offline
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    05-06-2009, 08:41 AM #54
    christmass was bad all the way around i dont think we got anything out of christmas this year. i think people were spending more moeny 1st qtr than they did 4th qtr which is an anomoly, most likely you guys are right about the negative, im just hoping your wrong enough that it can be mostly flat as opposed to a ugly negative number.

  5. john is offline
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    05-06-2009, 09:08 AM #55
    Quote Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos View Post
    christmass was bad all the way around i dont think we got anything out of christmas this year. i think people were spending more moeny 1st qtr than they did 4th qtr which is an anomoly, most likely you guys are right about the negative, im just hoping your wrong enough that it can be mostly flat as opposed to a ugly negative number.


    Thats crazy, people always over extend themselves for Chrismas then when the bills come due (in 1st quarter) they cut back to pay for it. I cant tell you how many times I had evicted people that said they could not pay there rent because of Chrismas. I guess the better present would have been a roof over their heads.



    Sure, sure I am going to hell because I evict people during/just after the holidays. Well when my father said the same thing I told him if he feels that way then why dont he pay their rent and everyone wins, they stay in the house/unit and I dont go to hell. His answer to me was, NO WAY. My response was, you see It is always different when it is someone elses money your talking about.

  6. trippingthespeculatingpos is offline
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    05-06-2009, 09:17 AM #56
    well my experience with this christmas is that nobody spent anything, specially not on sat radio's. I do see your point though john, i guess im just hoping less people canceled than we think and more people signed up than we think. hoping is the key word, most evidence does point towards neg subs.

  7. RU Sirius is offline
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    05-07-2009, 01:41 AM #57

    My part

    Don't know enough about this stock to predict sub numbers.....but I did my part. Bought new GMC in Jan. and renewed XM for lifetime this month so there's at least +1 ! They won't let you do lifetime for Navigation though...only 3 year plan.

    Hope it's a good one tomorrow.....run blue dog run!

    Just wish I still had 80k shares instead of 15k I have now.....had to take some emergency profits earlier!

    GL tomorrow all.

  8. homer985 is offline
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    05-07-2009, 08:59 AM #58
    15,000 larger loss than my top end of 385K... I didn't think they'd try and hide the losses...

  9. trippingthespeculatingpos is offline
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    05-07-2009, 09:00 AM #59
    yeah great job predicting subs a+ for u guys F for me heh
    Last edited by trippingthespeculatingpos; 05-07-2009 at 09:20 AM.

  10. otone is offline
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    05-07-2009, 09:14 AM #60
    Quote Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos View Post
    yeah great job prediciting subs a+ for u guys F for me heh

    For sure I won't be quitting my day job... Well Done Homer, Charles, and Tyler.

    Quote Originally Posted by otone View Post
    I think if you take Homer's worst case numbers, Balance that with possibilites that Rel presents and throw in a little "charity" for some subscribers having to make a fiscal decision and I still think we are around 0, but probably slightly negative since everyone is expecting extremely negative.

    WTFK

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