I'd agree with the high numbers if I didn't feel that there were some things done to keep "subscribers". I just feel like they want to keep it "believable" yet positive to get them through this quarter.
SIRIUS XM SATELLITE RADIO FORUM
I'd agree with the high numbers if I didn't feel that there were some things done to keep "subscribers". I just feel like they want to keep it "believable" yet positive to get them through this quarter.
The title of this thread is biased, and clearly reveals the "diction" of Charles worldview on this stock.
We add 60k subs this quarter. Why could you name the thread... Estimate on sub loss/additions? See, its just as long.
What? you are not allowed to stir up discontent over at the other site for fear of a strike so you come over here to do it? :-) Nobody else took offense since we all know Charles.
LOL.....I do not think it was a bias, as much as the opinion that a negative sub number is a foregone conclusion. I do see you are thinking they will add. I would love to see that happen, but I don't think it will.Originally Posted by relmor2003
They would have to torture ARPU to make that happen in my opinion. There is a little wiggle room in ARPU to keep people on as subscribers, but not that much.
Remeber, both Sirius and XM went through federal investigations on how they count subs, as well as their customer retention methods. I do not think they want to go down that path again.
Tyler Savery
Satellite Standard Founder
Ive never stopped posting here. I post where I can offer anything or learn. As I can still learn from this site, I will enjoy it. If I feel I cant offer anything, then I wont post.
The title of the thread reveals how Charles has felt about this STOCK for months. Hes been wrong for months, and he will keep being wrong for many more months. I have nothing against Charles, in in fact if you read my posts, you will know that I havent taken sides. Ive defended this sites position on the PM point, I even ripped Rick for it. Move on ,this topic on this thread has nothing to do with your comments. I even called out Newman for making sure the other site" was working" before moving on. I dont hold my punches, I could care less what "site" is involved or the person.
My reasons for my take...
1. XM lost a ton of subs in Q4 for reasons that are not "continuous".
2. Car sales picked up in March, near the end.
3. Apps got a bit of attention this quarter.
4. Deeper penetration in autos vs. last quarter.
5. Sirius has been know to "forget" to turn off radios when they cancelled.
6. BK issue. People may have been waiting to see if they were even going to be around come March.
Im not just "hoping", I actually have reasons.
Last edited by relmor2003; 05-05-2009 at 11:42 AM.
I know I said I hadn't guessed in awhile and wasn't likely going to -- but I think it needs to be said too... I'm going with a loss of 300k~385K.
Total educated guess.
Auto sales were down 37% YTD. Sirius/XM had combined for 1.5MM OEM gross in Q1 last year... a 37% cut to that would be 900K. Add in lowered YoY retail additions and take out 2.85% monthly churn on 19MM subs... spells an ugly quarter. Max loss of 385K, best case scenario (from increased auto penatration) 300K.
Expenses will be way down though, too. That will be the selling point on the quarters' numbers. The silver lining, so to speak.
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Last edited by homer985; 05-05-2009 at 01:35 PM.
Sirius should not even report subs at all and just report higher revenue and lower expenses.
You can't even count subs like you used to and make apple to apple comparisons. Until their are a few quarters under their belt for the Best of and Mirge radio being available, it is hard to gauge progress.
Is a Sirius sub with best of XM 1 sub or 1.5 ?
If you pay 19.99 for the Mirge radio and both services, are you considered 1 or 2 subs ?
This needs to be explained because higher ARPU is cutting into sub#'s since someone with a Sirius and an XM sub, now may have canceled 1 of them, signed up for best of and also signed up for 2.99 internet.
They would be paying about $20 for 1 sub as opposed to $26 for 2 subs combined.
thx for your opinion homer, always good when some1 includes their own math with their conclusion. bravo. i agree as well sxminvestor cause i did the same i cancled my sirius ub for an xm sub heh.
I say we lose 75k subs, maintain ABOVE forecasted profit to keep us well on pace to crush $300 million and the pps hits. 65!!!
A man can dream....
Cheers,
-Whynot
naw man u aint dreaming, your seeing the future
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