SIRI Intraday Thread: Friday April 24th / Weekend Edition

[john]

So I have to ask was this duke guy or girl correct or not? I think he was not.


I will say it again this stock can not be called on a minute to minute, hour to hour, or day to day, basis. There are to many shares out, to many being traded and/or because it is a penny stock, ect., ect. In general there are to many *fluctuating* varibles that can not be figured out. The best you can do is make a guess and get lucky if it is correct. How many times does it have to do just the opposite of what people think it will do before some people get it. That is not to say that there are not trends, there are. We can say that the general trend is up with spikes up that then are followed by a big drop. Those trends are not something I would count on except to say that there would be some profit taking off a big up tick (that has always happened and is all part of human nature). How many times does it have to happen to you, where because something has happen so many times before, you think it will happen again and then it does not and you get screwed.

[JohnnyIrishXM]

Looks like we had a decent day with more consolidation and low vol. guess brokers were trading with themselves again...was away from P.C since 1pm,rather refreshing ...i'll be checking in on the weekend periodically,going on the deck to grill and have a few cold ones with the neighbors,70 and sunny,spring has arrived...Everyone have a great Weekend!!!

Patience is king and greed is the friend of patience...

[trippingthespeculatingpos]

JohnnyIrishXM

was away from P.C since 1pm,rather refreshing

haha thats why we didnt have a sell off at the end :O

i was watching the stockshock trailer, lol i dont know what to say, its funny that certain board members are in it looking all professional, i always pictured you guys as unshaven neanderthals :O

[GoHerdGreg]

Well from my point of view, this week was pretty interesting (with regards to SIRI and stocks in general). In short, I took the advice of a very good investor I know and sold off enough shares of SIRI to get my original investment back.

I still have about 75% of my original shares, and they are in essence "free" from here on out. I'll let 'em ride looooooong. Nothing to lose with "free" shares.

I took the cash from that sale of shares and used it to buy some shares of a much more (to me) expensive stock. If it increases as I think it should...I'll do the same and get my original investment back and let the rest ride.

Rinse, repeat.

So far, this tactic has worked. I hope to continue it and really build up a nice portfolio that I can trade with, using mostly "free" shares.

Or, maybe it'll all go down the tubes. These days, it's anybody's guess.

This all may seem rather basic to a lot of you, but to a new-ish investor, it's very intriguing and quite the education.

[cranmer]

hey---that's my birthday!! I should have bought some then, too (you know this year it was a Friday....) I ended up buying mid-March.

[trippingthespeculatingpos]

short interest report is out

http://uk.reuters.com/article/market...44458120090425

FIVE BIGGEST DECREASES:
Level 3 Comm (LVLT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 122,858,362 141,837,349 -18,978,987 -13.4
Intel Corp (INTC.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 80,535,046 95,304,819 -14,769,773 -15.5
Sirius XM Radio (SIRI.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 166,898,959 181,243,884

FIVE BIGGEST POSITIONS:
Sirius XM Radio (SIRI.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 166,898,959 181,243,884 -14,344,925 -7.9
Level 3 Comm (LVLT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 122,858,362 141,837,349

[billhart22]

So I have to ask was this duke guy or girl correct or not? I think he was not.


I will say it again this stock can not be called on a minute to minute, hour to hour, or day to day, basis. There are to many shares out, to many being traded and/or because it is a penny stock, ect., ect. In general there are to many *fluctuating* varibles that can not be figured out. The best you can do is make a guess and get lucky if it is correct. How many times does it have to do just the opposite of what people think it will do before some people get it. That is not to say that there are not trends, there are. We can say that the general trend is up with spikes up that then are followed by a big drop. Those trends are not something I would count on except to say that there would be some profit taking off a big up tick (that has always happened and is all part of human nature). How many times does it have to happen to you, where because something has happen so many times before, you think it will happen again and then it does not and you get screwed.

Some times following a stock like SIRI takes an objective look. Take a look at a 30 day chart, a 60 day and a year chart.

I get caught up into looking too micro myself. Just a thought and no reflection upon anybody or yourself....just a thought.

I personally get caught up in the DOW for the day and don't see where it is going over all and screw up. I am breaking that bad habit. There will always be loses and gains. The overall picture is what is essential in a lot of cases. This has helped me tremendously.

Bill

[Dr. Dave]

That's some solid advice - even though I trade chart patterns mainly using the daily charts to find my setups (though for the entries and exits I go as low as the 15 min charts, and use a 5-10 min live chart), it is imperative I include the weekly, and many times the monthly charts. When I have them all going, I make the best trades, when I don't I get more losers - in fact, I'm finding it helpful to have different kinds of daily charts to get a grasp on movements. I guess thats why a lot of day traders I know use the daily charts to get their long term outlook, and longs, while centered around the weekly charts, look at yearly charts, and use daily's to enter/exit. Think about it, one couldn't get in the majority of the higher priced stocks on Mar 8, 9, 10 without looking at a monthly chart that went back years and years to time it. I actually made a big mistake the other day, as I jumped in something else after just looking at a few charts (luckily, I'm up for now). It wasn't until today that I convinced myself I'm ok for a day or too - and that took long term charts to figure that out, and it also gave me a better exit plan for a stop loss if things didn't go my way.

[imromo24]

any thoughts that the upswing to .63 was the reverse of the wild downswings we have been seeing...i wouldn't be surprised if several had sells at .6ish and that move wiped 'em out. Just like those large spikes down cleared the stops.

I have a good feeling based on this that it cleared a lot of the holders of shares below .29 and we are building quite a strong floor in the .4's

[JohnnyIrishXM]

any thoughts that the upswing to .63 was the reverse of the wild downswings we have been seeing...i wouldn't be surprised if several had sells at .6ish and that move wiped 'em out. Just like those large spikes down cleared the stops.

I have a good feeling based on this that it cleared a lot of the holders of shares below .29 and we are building quite a strong floor in the .4's

Hi Imromo,your exactly right about clearing out sells in the .60's and high .50's
also the buys in low .40's...if you think about it we have raised our bottom floor about .10 every three weeks since Liberty deal.

First it was the teens after march 6th,then.20's till march 17th,then .30's till april 10th or so,and now in the .40's..all with .10 -.15 spikes up and then back to new bottom for consolidation...In the stock world that is a speedy trend upward and very bullish channel...

If we can get Positive EBITDA(Earning Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Adjustment's)and FCF (Free Cash Flow)for 1Q with guidance for next 2-4 Q's
of improved numbers of Subs,Plus Churn rate Stabilizing along with Improved ARPU (Avg Revenue Per Unit)and decreased SAC(Sub Aquisition Cost),we should be on our way to well over a $1 SP by August.