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  1. airman is offline
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    Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 237
    04-25-2009, 08:59 AM #51
    Quote Originally Posted by imromo24 View Post
    any thoughts that the upswing to .63 was the reverse of the wild downswings we have been seeing...i wouldn't be surprised if several had sells at .6ish and that move wiped 'em out. Just like those large spikes down cleared the stops.

    I have a good feeling based on this that it cleared a lot of the holders of shares below .29 and we are building quite a strong floor in the .4's
    The upswing tested the 200 mda. In my opinion as the 50 mda comes in below it will form more support for an eventual breakthrough the 200 with vigor. As long as really really bad news doesnt come out I think this will be resolved in the next few weeks. How many times it tests the 200 I dont know but I wont be caught selling there.

  2. john is offline
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    Joined: May 2008 Posts: 2,836
    04-25-2009, 08:59 AM #52
    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM View Post
    Hi Imromo,your exactly right about clearing out sells in the .60's and high .50's
    also the buys in low .40's...if you think about it we have raised our bottom floor about .10 every three weeks since Liberty deal.

    First it was the teens after march 6th,then.20's till march 17th,then .30's till april 10th or so,and now in the .40's..all with .10 -.15 spikes up and then back to new bottom for consolidation...In the stock world that is a speedy trend upward and very bullish channel...

    If we can get Positive EBITDA(Earning Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Adjustment's)and FCF (Free Cash Flow)for 1Q with guidance for next 2-4 Q's
    of improved numbers of Subs,Plus Churn rate Stabilizing along with Improved ARPU (Avg Revenue Per Unit)and decreased SAC(Sub Aquisition Cost),we should be on our way to well over a $1 SP by August.


    I would not expect any guidance on anything except EBITDA for the next few quarters. SIRIXM has already said they were not expecting to give any until the end of the year, with the exception of EBITDA. I am betting we see a big increase in ARPU unless they had to give alot of free months to keep subs. We will know though because if they have a churn of lets say 1.7 and their ARPU only gos up 5 cents and not to much more added to revenue because of the prepays to keep the old rates (about 100 million). That will tell us that they gave alot of subs months free to keep them. Ether way it will be what I would consider a not so bad quarterly report. Any increase in ARPU is great, keeping churn at 1.7 in this economy is great, and even only adding an additional 50 to 100 million is great. I believe what I just said is the low ball estimate. Just think if they were able to keep churn in check naturally. You could see ARPU go up as much as 20 or maybe even 30 cents that would be huge. It would be the same (20 cent increase in ARPU) as them adding revenue of 350,000 subs. So you could see even if they lose 200,000 net subs they are still a net increase of 150,000 subs as far as it is considered on a basis of revenue.

  3. john is offline
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    Joined: May 2008 Posts: 2,836
    04-25-2009, 09:10 AM #53
    Quote Originally Posted by airman View Post
    The upswing tested the 200 mda. In my opinion as the 50 mda comes in below it will form more support for an eventual breakthrough the 200 with vigor. As long as really really bad news doesnt come out I think this will be resolved in the next few weeks. How many times it tests the 200 I dont know but I wont be caught selling there.

    Not me baby, I am selling again at sixtyish and I dont care if it keeps going up (the higher and faster the better). I dont care if I never buy it back again, I just want to get rid of alot of the shares I got and the only way I can do that is if I am not tempted to buy it back again.

  4. Whynot is offline
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    Joined: Sep 2008 Location: The Mid-Atlantic Posts: 113
    04-25-2009, 09:34 AM #54

    Bought

    2500 more @ .43 and still BUYING......I'm not selling a single share for the next 2 years at least.

    Cheers,
    -Whynot

    Long: BCS, DFT, CSE, DO, [B]SIRI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  5. GoHerdGreg is offline
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    Joined: Mar 2009 Location: WV Posts: 314
    04-25-2009, 10:40 AM #55
    Quote Originally Posted by imromo24 View Post
    I have a good feeling based on this that it cleared a lot of the holders of shares below .29 and we are building quite a strong floor in the .4's
    Not me. Avg. of $0.22 and hoooooolding. I have no stops set.

    Just waiting...

  6. Hughes is offline
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    Joined: Mar 2008 Posts: 168
    04-25-2009, 10:44 AM #56
    Quote Originally Posted by Whynot View Post
    2500 more @ .43 and still BUYING......I'm not selling a single share for the next 2 years at least.

    Cheers,
    -Whynot

    Long: BCS, DFT, CSE, DO, [B]SIRI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    I'm holding out for $1.50, if that ever decides to happen, I'm selling half my position.

  7. JohnnyIrishXM is offline
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    Joined: Feb 2009 Location: Valley Forge ,PA Posts: 1,583
    04-25-2009, 01:56 PM #57
    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    I would not expect any guidance on anything except EBITDA for the next few quarters. SIRIXM has already said they were not expecting to give any until the end of the year, with the exception of EBITDA. I am betting we see a big increase in ARPU unless they had to give alot of free months to keep subs. We will know though because if they have a churn of lets say 1.7 and their ARPU only gos up 5 cents and not to much more added to revenue because of the prepays to keep the old rates (about 100 million). That will tell us that they gave alot of subs months free to keep them. Ether way it will be what I would consider a not so bad quarterly report. Any increase in ARPU is great, keeping churn at 1.7 in this economy is great, and even only adding an additional 50 to 100 million is great. I believe what I just said is the low ball estimate. Just think if they were able to keep churn in check naturally. You could see ARPU go up as much as 20 or maybe even 30 cents that would be huge. It would be the same (20 cent increase in ARPU) as them adding revenue of 350,000 subs. So you could see even if they lose 200,000 net subs they are still a net increase of 150,000 subs as far as it is considered on a basis of revenue.
    Your right John about guidance for subs,but it would be nice,wasn't expecting any until at least 2Q or definitely 3Q...Ebitda Guidance of greater than the
    300 million for 09 already given,Raised due to best of rev increase and subs extending out
    for free online listening plus 2.99 fee for same,would do wonders for FCF and profit in 1Q giving SiriusXM 2 straight FCF Q's..
    Last edited by JohnnyIrishXM; 04-25-2009 at 02:00 PM.

  8. LMaze is offline
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    Joined: Mar 2009 Location: Holmdel, New Jersey Posts: 90
    04-26-2009, 08:15 AM #58
    Good move why not. Buy and hold, thats what I'm doing, keep your shares in a margin free account so they can't be lent out by your broker to some shorter and hold on. I am looking at 60 months but as a measure of where this company is headed look at the action on the calls that should give you an idea of what the near term action on the stock is. If you want to trade a little in the gaps that's fine too, I can't I dont have the time but if you follow the analysis from a technical side by Relmor2003, Cos1000 and the other whiz'es then you will be fine. Accumulate and sit tight the best is yet to come. Now that the Liberty deal is closed this is a whole new company. We survived the worst and nothing could break us, we will win inthe end, we have content and the best product. F the NAB, F the politicians who supported the NAB and F the wall street manipulators who tried to put SiriusXM on skids row, including Cramer.

  9. trippingthespeculatingpos is offline
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    Joined: Dec 2008 Location: San Antonio Posts: 2,884
    04-26-2009, 03:02 PM #59
    http://www.markayi.com/satellite-radio-how-its-work/

    here's a good read haha, i got through about 2 paragraphs before my brain started melting

  10. imromo24 is offline
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    Joined: Aug 2008 Location: Steeler Town, MI Posts: 2,524
    04-26-2009, 03:18 PM #60
    wow, that wasn't real was it? it was like a million "hit" words mashed together to form a pretend story from a robot!

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