Originally Posted by
Dustyoden
Typically the sub numbers have been my biggest fear. However, without a large loss in subs, I see the stock going up. The Iphone app that everyone is so excited about really isn't as big a deal as far as stock price is concerned. I'm sure the publicity is going to boost the SP but its going to be a head fake. The synergies are driving the price at this point and we still have a ways to go on the SP. I have been saying an SP of upper .60's before the Q1 report. After the Q1 (I expect a small loss in subs, rev increase, and best case scenario Sirius XM gives some guidance) we get over 1 and are pushing 1.25 by Q2. If auto sales pick up before Q2 1.25 will be blown by. If stocks are valued 3 to 6 months forward even keeping subs relatively flat should see the SP grow with rev increases due to synergies. Just my take.
Just throwing this out there cause I have thought about this a little... Other than a significant loss in subs what else could tank this stock in the near term? A failure in the launch of the next satellite. If for some reason the thing doesn’t make it to orbit because of a catastrophic failure in launch, does the SP take a big hit? I know there is insurance on them but from a psychological standpoint Sirius XM is just beginning to look very attractive. Would a failed launch change that?