Anyone who is invested in Sirius who does not know about the dilution must be watching too much Cramer. They announced the dilution fact, and the stock trippled. The stock price is priced in for dilution already, just like it was priced for bankruptcy before.
As far as EVERYTHING else you mentioned:
You seem to ignore the fact that we are in one of the worst economic environments in years. The reason that Sirius had to borrow money at 15% interest was because NO ONE was lending money. The fact that they SUCCESSFULLY negotiated ANY loan to stave off bankruptcy should show how strong of a company they were and still are. Yes, there will be future refinancing necessary, but it will be done in a much friendlier economy.
You mention tons of debt, but what you FAIL to mention is the fact that the company will be EBITDA positive for the full year 2009 according to their forecasts to the tune of "at least 300 million". You forget to mention that costs have been dropping nearly as fast as the Motley Fool's subscriber numbers, while revenues have increased significantly. You forget to mention that due to synergies with satellite CAPEX, they will be able to maintain half of the satellites as a single company.
It is convienient that you leave out so much information that would hurt your case. Your entire argument is based on th future, yet you base all of your assumptions on todays environment.
Newman
http://www.SiriusBuzz.com