A friendly wager for Brandon

[Krypto1]

Brandon, You are back and forth on our prospects as of late.... your recent posts indicate that you feel strongly that our company will lose net subscribers in 2009. You still feeling that way? If so, I have a friendly wager that I would like to propose...... If siriusxm loses any net subs in 2009, I will overnight you 1 case of Duckhorn Patzimaro Vinyard Cab the day of the call; if we end up green in net subs for 2009, you send me same. This will be fun.... please take me up on it, I need the wine. I look forward to your reply

[Brandon Matthews]

Brandon, You are back and forth on our prospects as of late.... your recent posts indicate that you feel strongly that our company will lose net subscribers in 2009. You still feeling that way? If so, I have a friendly wager that I would like to propose...... If siriusxm loses any net subs in 2009, I will overnight you 1 case of Duckhorn Patzimaro Vinyard Cab the day of the call; if we end up green in net subs for 2009, you send me same. This will be fun.... please take me up on it, I need the wine. I look forward to your reply

For starters, I can pretty much be assured of a negative first quarter. The company all but conceded that today. My analysis is an "as is" scenario. Meaning, if nothing changes in the way Sirius XM markets itself, they will lise 2 million net subs in 2009.

The company today only convinced me that I was correct. Even Homer posted his analysis which resulted in a net gain of only 100k subs in all of 2009. Homer used a 58% penetration rate yet as we learned today, the rate is 52%, which means even using Homers figures, sirius would see a net sub loss in 2009.

Here's the good news. Sirius realizes this and the company is talkimg of taking action to rectify the situation before it becomes reality. If they do in fact begin to market the product better, we will see a positive year.

It will lead to lower churn and higher take rates from oem channels. Increasing the 44% take rate to 70 % for instance would mean a very good year. It's all in the way they choose to market themselves.

If you'd like to bet on Q1, I'll gladly accept.