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  1. Roncool is offline
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    03-07-2009, 02:41 PM #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by doctorex View Post
    doctorex speaks:

    missing in the discussion in recent weeks is the biggest radish on the row: with the merger completed, siri is unmistakably a monopoly. think google, think ebay, think microsoft. there is no other way to put ulimited content into a moving car with no ads. that is the core market: prosperous people riding the roads and freeways, hungry for content, hating ads and their producers every second.

    so let's say 20,000,000 subs, not off by much, and it divides much more easily than 19,000,000.

    let's say arpu is $10 per month. this means monthly revenue is $200,000,000 (or $2.4 billion annual). we are not off by much here either.

    unknown is the expense side, but we know, for sure, that expenses are dropping per sub because the monopoly is established by the merger, and siri and xm do not need to compete with each other. this eliminates marketing expenses, duplicate content, admin., and so on. let us say it takes $1.2 billion annualy to run the business and pay the financing.

    profit would be $1.2 billion at this point. assume 40% dilution of common stock after the liberty deal, and we may have about 6 billion common shares. this calculates to annual profit per share of $0.20.

    the p.e. applied may be quite high, considering that siri is a monopoly. let us use 30. this is lower than other monopolies have seen.

    AND VOILA! SIX DOLLARS PER COMMON SHARE.

    but the pe will drift higher when the monopoly is appreciated more fully. let 's say 50.

    VOILA! TEN DOLLARS PER COMMON SHARE.

    and the price can be raised in two years, let us say by 50%, to bring arpu up to $15 per month.

    VOILA! FIFTEEN DOLLARS PER SHARE.

    and the subs will go up to 40,000,000. there are 40,000,000 literate prosperous people in the united states who will not tolerate ipod, or terrestrial radio, or their own cd disks, over, and over, and over.

    VOILA! THIRTY DOLLARS PER SHARE.

    doctorex has spoken.
    I HAVE ALOT OF SHARES AND THAT WOULD BE NICE. Let me say I don't think this is in any way a monopoly. There are plenty of other entertainment devises that can be used in cars, homes, boats that and people have choices. I know nothing about the inter working of the stock market or this stock. I have learned alot in the past year about stocks,but I could never convince anyone on this site of being the next Jim Cramer.

    This is what I know, and this is why I like the company and the stock. I LIKE THE PRODUCT. It works. Just think you can jump in your car or truck leave LA and arive in New York and never touch the dial. I can take advanage of the enormous selection of news, sports music in the format of oldies to fresh new rock. I can listen in my car, home, or computer.The product has potential in air planes, trains, and other forms of tranpotation. I think the back seat TV is a huge underlooked market, and has the a monmentous potential to drive car sales. I knew a guy years ago that told me invest in what you like, and you will never go wrong. I think that is solid advise. Now I will play kramer. stop looking at this stock everyday it will just drive you crazy. It is a stock to hold long, and depending on the entire economy and condition of the stock marker in general it will be a $6.00 stock, and if it gets all crazy like it did a few years back it could spike way up and down. Lets not beat ourselfs up anymore we are all pretty smart investors we have a stock with huge potential and good legs

  2. frigginregan is offline
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    03-07-2009, 03:10 PM #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Brandon Matthews View Post
    Friggin....what are you a masochist? That's my job.

    When the company was loaded with debt, dilution was inevitable and its future uncertain, you bot the stock. Now with nothing to fear and a positive outlook, you want to dump it?

    I can understand wanting to reevaluate your position at that time, but such a wholesale emotional response is NOT in your best interests....take it from someone who knows
    Hey Brandon. I'm just trying to guard against runaway enthusiasm. I want to mentally prepare to cash out should the time come. I want to KNOW that I can pull the trigger. I am PROUD that I held on thru all the fear. That I didn't sell for a HUGE loss like many have.

    Sure, I'd love to keep holding until my wildest dream comes true and Sirius makes me a fortune.

    But the truth is at this point and in this economy I'd be more than happy with my original 30 grand or so. I am confident I could put it to better use elsewhere.

    If I can break even or make a slight profit, I won't look at the last 3 years as a waste. I've learned much Grasshopper. Seriously. Plus after what I've been thru, I'd much rather have learned that lesson AND recouped my original investment than lose it all again in a massive RS that may be coming.

    Ok...so a RS may not result in a massive short attack again. But if one does happen, I will pretty much ensure that I probably won't come close to break even again let alone make a slight profit for a LONG LONG time.

    So I'm thinking....maybe for me...cashing out now(should I get the chance) at break even or a slight profit would be a wiser choice.

    But thats me. If I was able to by $10,000 dollars worth or more when Sirius hit .05 cents instead of the hundreds of dollars I could only buy....I'd have a totally different game plan. It'd be easier for me to risk the RS and continue to hold, because I'd be holding HUNDREDS of THOUSANDS of shares.

    Believe me, I have weighed this very heavily in my mind, and don't take my decision lightly.

    Again, I may let a little ride. But my gut is telling me to get out given the chance, with my amount of shares and average pps.

    Even though I feel relieved about the 2009 debt refinancing, I am nervous about other things. Once more, I am very proud that I toughed it out and didn't sell for a huge loss in the past. I held thru the merger and the BK talk. I've been a true long.

    But something is telling me to get out given the chance. Even this talk is premature tho, because my average pps is still around a buck.

    I'm just mentally preparing thats all.

    If I had those funds right now I would be putting them to good use. I've been watching the market VERY closely and keeping up with my sectors of interest. Case in point. Last week, I would have pulled the trigger on any of the stem cell stocks I've been following. I would have easily thrown 20 grand into GERN. I knew that Obama was going to repeal the ban on federal funding and news came Friday that come Monday he will. The stocks exploded and will continue to rise.

    I know things are looking better for Sirius....and it's tempting to stay long. But as I wrote above...in my particular case....it's very risky. I chance to get stuck in Sirius and have my original investment locked up from reaching break even for many more years perhaps.

    If I was getting in now with my original investment, that'd be different. Like I said, I'd have hundreds of thousands of shares with an average cost of mere pennies. The risk reward would be a better bet.

    Anyway, I don't know what will happen. Like I said, I'm just mentally preparing to act when the time is right and not getting swept up in emotion or hope. I want to be cold and calculating.

    Peace. :-)

  3. imromo24 is offline
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    03-07-2009, 03:44 PM #13
    $7.00 by november 2010, you heard it hear first, no reverse split needed...

    Cash cow...moooooo.....mooooooo....

  4. Newman is offline
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    03-07-2009, 05:28 PM #14
    If you want to look at it by numbers:

    Assuming NO more dilution, and NO R/S, the company has projected FCF of 1 billion dollars in 2012. Using a 6.5 billion share float (to include current dilution from the 40% stake of Malone), this would equate to 0.15 earnings per share. So, in other words, Sirius XM is currently trading at a 2012 Forward PE ratio of 1:1. What type of ratio seems appropriate for Sirius in your opinion?

  5. OldDruid is offline
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    03-07-2009, 05:48 PM #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Newman View Post
    If you want to look at it by numbers:

    Assuming NO more dilution, and NO R/S, the company has projected FCF of 1 billion dollars in 2012. Using a 6.5 billion share float (to include current dilution from the 40% stake of Malone), this would equate to 0.15 earnings per share. So, in other words, Sirius XM is currently trading at a 2012 Forward PE ratio of 1:1. What type of ratio seems appropriate for Sirius in your opinion?
    3 to 4/1 would be really nice. But under current conditions 2 to 3/1 is about the max I would expect.

  6. Newman is offline
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    03-07-2009, 08:05 PM #16
    I know it is difficult to compare SIRI to many other stocks, but:

    Google has sported a PE of as high as 60 at one point.
    Apple has sported a PE as high as 35
    Most companies sport a PE of between 5-15 and are considered VALUE stocks. GROWTH stocks usually have PEs of much higher.

  7. OldDruid is offline
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    03-07-2009, 08:14 PM #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Newman View Post
    I know it is difficult to compare SIRI to many other stocks, but:

    Google has sported a PE of as high as 60 at one point.
    Apple has sported a PE as high as 35
    Most companies sport a PE of between 5-15 and are considered VALUE stocks. GROWTH stocks usually have PEs of much higher.
    Very true. If this meltdown had not been so global.... Once recovery is under way, return to normal valuation should follow.

  8. otone is offline
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    03-07-2009, 10:40 PM #18
    So, the pressure is off and everyone is feeling great. SP projections from you guys going forward into next year look good. So my question is how many of you are now going to dump everything you can into this stock? I mean if you really feel confident about your projections, you'd be silly not too right? For me, I finally got averaged down to .89 cents (110k shares) and would love to get it down to .50, but .70 is probably more realistic at this point depending on whether or not we get any kind of runup. frigginregan, you and have have parallel buy patterns on this stock. I've been a true long as well and averaged down from 3.50. You can do the math on my shares and believe me, it has been a true gut check.

    The lucky thing for me was on Friday, I decided to transfer some money from my etrade account in anticipation of getting some more next week. I guess I have made enough transfers where they have cleared me to have the money immediately available (Normally it is 4 business days). I had watched it fall into the .12s with anticipation of it getting to around .10 late next week. The second I heard the news, I put in a market order that got filled in the .13s.

    You guys have any opinions of SP next week? Sustained runup into the low .20s or maybe a drop back into the .13s at some point?

  9. Paratrooper_Rick is offline
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    03-07-2009, 10:57 PM #19

    Projection

    The pressure is off somewhat - still much that could go wrong IMO - but it is definitely looking better than 3 weeks ago. I am in with all I could get last week avg at .13. I would dig in some more - but no way I can shift enough over by Monday - and I expect it to gradually start climbing....

    If it does make a temporary drop back to .13 or so - I'd be postured to buy more - and I will.

    I would expect us to see low .20's under normal market conditions - but what the hell is normal about the market nowadays....

    If I was to make a guess - I'd say there will be a slight runup - I hate to even speculate how far with the 17th CC looming. I think we'll hit .20's then retract a bit before the 17th..... so there may be one more good window to buy...

    Personally I'd like to see it skyrocket..... but the little voice in my head says it ain't that easy....

  10. Lithium24 is offline
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    03-07-2009, 11:54 PM #20
    Feb 5th was .20 on a rumor. Feb 17th was .23 on Malone Part I. Both of those had news releases outside normal trading hours, and they exploded and died fast. This news was released mid-day and caused a modest increase. With the weekend to digest it, Im guessing .25 closing a few cents below. I dont think it will get taken down like the last 2 times, but Im holding all the same.

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