How high could SIRI spike on tuesday and in the coming days?

[m4svt]

I think we see above $1.00 shortly if all goes well. Last time this stock was trading under a buck was Sept 30th, 2002 - May 5th 2003 and climbed from there. I'm hoping history repeats itself.

[Newman]

The stock will not hit $1 until ALL of the 2009 debt is resolved.

You mentioned a ton of potential catylists to boost the stock price, but remember that NOTHING has been holding this stock down except debt. That is it, nothing else, and it will not go over $1 (and stay there long) until ALL of the 2009 debt is resolved. We have absolutely no debt due in 2010. That is a HUGE plus.

We will have to see:
1) The terms of the loan. Is Malone getting 4 billion shares in exchange for his loans? That will significantly dilute the stock and make it that much more difficult to get to $1. (I REALLY doubt this is the case though)
2) What kind of earnings did Sirius have Q4?
3) Do they give any indication on take rates for lifetime subs? Best of Both? Family plan or Internet lockins?
4) How are the car makers doing? So far, they are still getting hit hard, and by proxy, so will Sirius. There is no way around this since it is the primary means of growth.
5) How is the economy doing? Bailout is official. Will it help? There are a TON of great companies out there with 0 debt and a buttload of cash that have gotten cut in half over the past 6 months. Why would Sirius recover before these stocks?

There are a lot of issues to deal with when thinking about stock price. There has also been significant dilution over the past 2 months while dealing with debt. A move to $1 a share would increase the market cap from about 250 million currently to about 4.5 billion. That is a hell of a jump in cap!

Realistically, I would predict that the stock hits 40 cents on Tuesday, then depending on the flow of news, it may pull back to 30. That is, unless they announce Q4 CC on Wednesday, and it will continue to rally, perhaps as high as 60 before pulling back for a couple of days before the CC.

Just my thoughts.

[john]

Demian, I would not count on a few strong quarters of FCF until the beginning of 2010. First of all Mel had stated that 2009 would have been FCF even, with out CAPEX, even is not strong. Second I know you are already thinking that 4th quarter of 2009 should be a great quarter for FCF like it has been in the past. The problem is this time they will have the cost of that satellite they are launching in the full. I think that will suck up much if not all of FCF in that quarter plus some. Remember it cost around 300 million to launch and have insurance on the launch. Not tring to be a buzz kill just tring to keep you down to earth on that skyrocketing PPS.

[Hughes]

I could see us between $2.00 - $3.00 this time next year if all goes according to plan.

[RickF]

Ok, the stock was over $1.00 just 5 short months ago, over $2.00 just 7 months ago, and over $3.00 11 months ago, and $4.00 not long before that. Now with the debt being refinanced and a few strong quarters of free cash flow - due to aggressive merger synergy cost savings, best of both adoption, internet feed and additional radio fee increases, iPhone app driven subscriber additions, an improving auto market, an improving consumer market, new radios like the the new internet and interoperable radios, renewed marketing and advertising initiatives with newly available cash, consumer confidence in the viability of the company now that bankruptcy is out of the picture - it would seem that the stock very well could have a sustained recovery.

When i think about it - why can't the stock get back over at least $1.00. This would take away the reverse split and delisting fears too. Why couldn't the stock get back to $4.00 this year - with the newly combined company's first profitable year and the debt under control? If the NY Post story is accurate, then the combined company is in much better shape now than when Sirius was trading above $4.00 as a stand alone company a few months ago....

Right ON Damian! That is what i was asking in a previous post! If the BK fear is taken off of the table - why shouldn't this stock return to a much higher level - SiriusOwner suggested "perception" and I think that has is a valid thought but if the main reason that this stock tanked was the fear of bk and bk is off the table ........ man i do hope it goes back towards the higher trading values! Hell - it now has no direct sat competition!!

[RickF]

The stock will not hit $1 until ALL of the 2009 debt is resolved.

You mentioned a ton of potential catylists to boost the stock price, but remember that NOTHING has been holding this stock down except debt. That is it, nothing else, and it will not go over $1 (and stay there long) until ALL of the 2009 debt is resolved. We have absolutely no debt due in 2010. That is a HUGE plus.

We will have to see:
1) The terms of the loan. Is Malone getting 4 billion shares in exchange for his loans? That will significantly dilute the stock and make it that much more difficult to get to $1. (I REALLY doubt this is the case though)
2) What kind of earnings did Sirius have Q4?
3) Do they give any indication on take rates for lifetime subs? Best of Both? Family plan or Internet lockins?
4) How are the car makers doing? So far, they are still getting hit hard, and by proxy, so will Sirius. There is no way around this since it is the primary means of growth.
5) How is the economy doing? Bailout is official. Will it help? There are a TON of great companies out there with 0 debt and a buttload of cash that have gotten cut in half over the past 6 months. Why would Sirius recover before these stocks?

There are a lot of issues to deal with when thinking about stock price. There has also been significant dilution over the past 2 months while dealing with debt. A move to $1 a share would increase the market cap from about 250 million currently to about 4.5 billion. That is a hell of a jump in cap!

Realistically, I would predict that the stock hits 40 cents on Tuesday, then depending on the flow of news, it may pull back to 30. That is, unless they announce Q4 CC on Wednesday, and it will continue to rally, perhaps as high as 60 before pulling back for a couple of days before the CC.

Just my thoughts.

Newman - you raining on the parade?? BUT ..... you are right with this i think!!

[imromo24]

To infinity and beyond!

[Phil]

If the NY Post story is valid and removes BR off the near term the pps will pop well above the true value. But will settle back down to earth but well above where it is today. I would guess if BR fear is gone we could see a 500% to 700% pop. And settle back to about 300% from last last Fridays close.

[RickF]

If the NY Post story is valid and removes BR off the near term the pps will pop well above the true value. But will settle back down to earth but well above where it is today. I would guess if BR fear is gone we could see a 500% to 700% pop. And settle back to about 300% from last last Fridays close.

Hi Phil .... what do you think "true value" is????

[Phil]

If BK is removed I think it will trade around .40 to .50 before earnings. After that is anyones guess. Plenty of room at that price to stretch its legs for long term growth.