When will Sirius have to file BK ?

[winagain35]

Homer broke down the numbers on the Yahoo board:
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Start with $360 million...
+ Add in FCF from Q4 of about $50 million;
- Now remove $180 million minimum balance needed, per their various indenture agreements;
- Now remove $175 million to repay the February debt;
- Now remove $44 million owed to the NFL in February;
- Now remove $60 million owed to MLB in March;
- Now remove $50 million for accounts payable

= ($99 million)
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Bottom line - it looks like we could be about 100 mil short IF Mel can't convince MLB and NFL to let him use the escrow accounts... Even still, it's gonna be tight. Looks like we're going to need some help.

[sxminvestor]

Homer broke down the numbers on the Yahoo board:
--------------------
Start with $360 million...
+ Add in FCF from Q4 of about $50 million;
- Now remove $180 million minimum balance needed, per their various indenture agreements;
- Now remove $175 million to repay the February debt;
- Now remove $44 million owed to the NFL in February;
- Now remove $60 million owed to MLB in March;
- Now remove $50 million for accounts payable

= ($99 million)
-----------------------------
Bottom line - it looks like we could be about 100 mil short IF Mel can't convince MLB and NFL to let him use the escrow accounts... Even still, it's gonna be tight. Looks like we're going to need some help.

What about new cash up front from "Best of" and "price increase grandfathering in rates " on family subs ? Couldn't this have added ~ 150 -200M 10% x 2 million subs that may have participated ?

[jmm232]

Homer broke down the numbers on the Yahoo board:
--------------------
Start with $360 million...
+ Add in FCF from Q4 of about $50 million;
- Now remove $180 million minimum balance needed, per their various indenture agreements;
- Now remove $175 million to repay the February debt;
- Now remove $44 million owed to the NFL in February;
- Now remove $60 million owed to MLB in March;
- Now remove $50 million for accounts payable

= ($99 million)
-----------------------------
Bottom line - it looks like we could be about 100 mil short IF Mel can't convince MLB and NFL to let him use the escrow accounts... Even still, it's gonna be tight. Looks like we're going to need some help.

Didn't Mel say that the loss for 2008 would be $100M less? That's $100M + right? Also, why are we making payments to NFL and MLB? Isn't that what escrow is for? The funds are already there, aren't they?

[homer985]

If they have to do it, my guess is that they would need to file it tomorrow before the Federal Courts close at the end of the day... because chapter 11 is "protection" using the court to protect you from your creditors.

The debt matures on Sunday, so the principle needs to be repaid on the first business day afterwords, which would be Tuesday. So they would need the protection of the Court before it is due on Tuesday.

Of course I could be wrong, they may be able to file it on Tuesday morning -- and get relief from the Court that day, but I'm not sure about that.


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[trippingthespeculatingpos]

so there is no way for them to make it without a cash infusion in your opinion?

[sxminvestor]

If they have to do it, my guess is that they would need to file it tomorrow before the Federal Courts close at the end of the day... because chapter 11 is "protection" using the court to protect you from your creditors.

The debt matures on Sunday, so the principle needs to be repaid on the first business day afterwords, which would be Tuesday. So they would need the protection of the Court before it is due on Tuesday.

Of course I could be wrong, they may be able to file it on Tuesday morning -- and get relief from the Court that day, but I'm not sure about that.


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Homer - did you forget about what I posted above that could add another 150 -200m in cash to their balance sheet ? Why do you all of a sudden believe they don't have it. I don't know that your #'s are spot on.

[Hopeful]

Charter Communications announced today they will file BK on April 1. They did not pay their last interest payment about a month or so ago. They HAD the cash to do so. They just didn't. There was like a 30 day window or something before the loan went into default. So... to all those who say that SIRI has the cash on hand to pay off the debt. apparently that doesn't mean much. Charter had the cash but chose BK instead. All CHTR shares will be cancelled. What I am wondering.... why would a company not want to file for BK? It seems so easy and the law is lenient... Cancel our shares and the bondholders will be issued new equity in the re-organized company.

They missed their last interest payment??? If that is true and BK is on April first, why is the media not all over this???

How likely is everyone seeing BK on a scale of 1-10???

[homer985]

Missed interest payments typically do not lead to default until 30-days after the due date. Payment of the principle is completely different -- and I see nothing in the indenture for the Feb09 bonds that says they get an additional 30 days.

The Sirius indenture does allow for up to 30 days to make the interest payment.

[Hopeful]

so homer do you see this as an indication that they will default on the feb debt???

[Siriusowner]

If they have to do it, my guess is that they would need to file it tomorrow before the Federal Courts close at the end of the day... because chapter 11 is "protection" using the court to protect you from your creditors.

The debt matures on Sunday, so the principle needs to be repaid on the first business day afterwords, which would be Tuesday. So they would need the protection of the Court before it is due on Tuesday.

Of course I could be wrong, they may be able to file it on Tuesday morning -- and get relief from the Court that day, but I'm not sure about that.


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That is what I thought. So we will not have to wait the long weekend huh ? This may be a sad weekend for a bunch of dudes.