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  1. dmo2424 is offline
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    02-09-2009, 06:37 PM #41

    I though Ergen and Mel were partners?


  2. just sirius is offline
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    02-09-2009, 07:56 PM #42
    Demian

    Saw the article this am about 15 companies likely to fail in 09. did you notice Apollo owned at least 2 of them privately. and then there is SiriXM. Apollo may not be in any postition to assist with fending off Echo!

  3. Demian is offline
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    02-09-2009, 09:41 PM #43
    There is total BS contained in this. How does the WSJ get get away with crap like this? Check out this excerpt full of BS......

    The embattled satellite broadcaster needs to refinance $175 million of its debt this month and has close to $960 million more coming due before December. If it doesn’t, default and a potential bankruptcy filing may loom...
    Sirius/XM HAS to refinance all $175 million? They have no cash on hand and no existing credit? There is $960 million more due before December? This is just flat out not true. There is $351.74 million more due before December - $350 million of it is bank loans that will likely be extended. If these are the "sources familiar with the situation" that they have been relying on, I call it total BS......

    http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2009/02/0...-look-so-wise/

    February 9, 2009, 4:33 pm
    Sirius XM: Turning Down That Refinancing Doesn’t Look So Wise
    Posted by Heidi N. Moore

    Who would have ever thought the summer of 2008–sandwiched as it was between the collapses of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers Brothers–might have been a good time to get funding for a deal?

    Seen through the prism of the past five years, of course, 2008 was a terrible time to obtain needed financing for a merger or acquisition. The credit markets constricted sharply in May and went into a near-total shutdown by December.

    And yet some companies are discovering that it would have been better to complete the funding for their M&A deals in the gathering storm of 2008 rather than in the hurricane of recession-wracked 2009.

    Sirius XM Radio is a prime example. The embattled satellite broadcaster needs to refinance $175 million of its debt this month and has close to $960 million more coming due before December. If it doesn’t, default and a potential bankruptcy filing may loom as the company had only around $360 million of cash on its balance sheet but $2.8 billion of long-term debt at Sept. 30, the latest figures available.

    Refinancing troubles related to the combination of Sirius Satellite Radio and XM Satellite Radio Holdings were long anticipated by analysts and investors but were dismissed last year as a problem that could wait. In April, a Cowen Group analyst said he believed concerns about the refinancing were overblown and that Sirius could raise money through private placements if the public debt markets remained challenging.

    Last July, Sirius raised $700 million through a sale of junk bonds to close the deal and followed that with the sale of $550 million in bonds at prices that were “ugly,” Chief Executive Mel Karmazin said at the time. “It was unfortunate,” he said, “but we did it.”

    What it didn’t do was refinance another $1 billion in debt whose maturity was triggered by Sirius’s combination with XM. Sirius opted to wait until the debt markets improved. And when they didn’t, it undertook discussions with its banks in November, December and January. No dice; by then it was too late. Sirius was able to knock off $125 million of the debt it owed only by exchanging it for the company’s own stock. That diluted shareholders by nearly 10%, according to an analyst report.

    Similarly, Dow Chemical last summer negotiated a $13 billion bridge loan to pay for its proposed $15.3 billion acquisition of Rohm & Haas. Now Dow Chemical says it wants to renegotiate and extend the bridge loan for another year, but cannot find terms anywhere near as attractive now as the company found last year.

    BCE Inc., the parent of Bell Canada, was another company that didn’t know how good it had it. Last summer, the Canadian telecommunications company renegotiated a financing agreement with the banks that had pledged financing for its leveraged buyout. The new agreement gave the banks six more months to syndicate the billions of dollars in debt they had promised to sell. By the time the six months were up, the markets were in even more dire shape and both the deal and its financing died.

    Clear Channel Communications, which forced through its $17 billion acquisition by two private-equity firms, realized how lucky it was. At a media conference last October, TH Lee partner Scott Sperling conceded that the Clear Channel buyout–which closed in the summer–could never have been done at the financing prices available in the autumn.

    Executives often don’t know what they have until it’s gone.
    Last edited by Demian; 02-09-2009 at 10:25 PM.

  4. SiriusHope is offline
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    02-09-2009, 10:56 PM #44
    ALL these talking heads in the media need to save their breath for their blowup dolls.

    Again today very disappointed we closed at .11...such a F&$%#@G mess this stock price and company is in. Let's all hope by March 1st we will be going above .25 !!! I am averaged at .58 for 20,000 shares and will bail out once we reach that pps which I hope will be by December '09.

    Pardon my ranting I am a positive optimist most times.

  5. Newman is offline
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    02-09-2009, 11:25 PM #45
    I would have to agree with SiriusOwner here: If you are in, stay in. If you are out, stay out. At least until things are more clear.

    There are so many articles out right now, almost all of them citing the WSJ report yet adding their own twist on the "according to sources" info. Half of the articles are so filled with misinformation and trash that you KNOW they are doing nothing but regurgitating the WSJ article and throwing in a couple of items they googled into it to draw people in.

    The sad thing is, every time you hit one of those links to the articles, it only fuels the fire more. They see they get traffic and they will continue putting out the shit reporting to draw more of it.

    People are STILL missing the point that I pointed out at the beginning of this thread: The majority of the stories out there right now are fairly confident that Ergen is not looking to BK Sirius, which means regardless of what happens, WE WILL NOT LOOSE OUR SHARES.

    As Demian has pointed out, the Feb. debt is trading ABOVE PAR, which you do not see when a company is about to go BK.

    Let's flip this conversation around. If Ergen were to take over Sirius XM, what would happen? If Ergen simply takes over control, but does not try to MERGE the companies, does the FCC have to approve? Would they change up the business model at all? Would Mel stay in control of Sirius XM? What do you think would happen if Ergen takes over?

    Discuss...

  6. Demian is offline
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    02-09-2009, 11:55 PM #46
    Quote Originally Posted by Newman View Post
    I would have to agree with SiriusOwner here: If you are in, stay in. If you are out, stay out. At least until things are more clear.
    For the record, I disagree strongly... With the stock back to .11 cents, it is a total buy. The bonds trading up where they are indicate that bankruptcy is not happening imminently. Why did the stock spike all the way up to .20 on the news at all, rather than just tank? The answer is that it was good news that the bonds were trading up - showing a confidence in the company's viability. The bonds trading up over par is also the only ****ing thing that can be verified and is not dependent on "sources familiar with the situation." The press spinning this so negatively has created an amazing buying window right now. There is limited downside risk here with the stock retracing all of the way back and possibly double bottoming here. Look at double bottom chart patterns. This looks like one. I disagree on waiting until after the 17th (the Feb. debt is actually due on the 15th) like Siriusowner has suggested to do, because the stock will have already made it's move up by then. The Feb. debt WILL be paid........period! Bottom line is that the bonds are trading as if no BK, and the stock is back down to it's BK imminent lows after an initial spike on the news and a flood of negative spin. This equals a buying opportunity IMHO and I deposited more cash in my brokerage account today...

    Long SIRI.....

    Demian
    Last edited by Demian; 02-09-2009 at 11:58 PM.

  7. demonotaku is offline
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    02-10-2009, 12:32 AM #47
    Is it me or does anyone think WSJ been going to Hartlieb for the source.

  8. ray is offline
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    02-10-2009, 12:33 AM #48
    Just a general comment: I appreciate the banter between Siriusowner and Demian because it always brings up so many good points to think about......

    With my position, Siriusowner and Newman have been right on. I let my greed get the best of me last week when I should have sold at .19, but decided to hang on for .24, thinking I would sell and buy back in at the "new" low.

    Again kudos to Siriusowner, Newman, and Demian for the time and effort to this forum If not for the forum, we would have taken our losses and moved on......

  9. ray is offline
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    02-10-2009, 12:49 AM #49

    New Satellites?

    Does anyone know if Echostar has any satellites going up in the near future and how important are Sirius's new satellites to Echostar?

  10. Newman is offline
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    02-10-2009, 01:27 AM #50
    Actually Demian, I agree with you. I was rereading some of my posts, yours, and others, and I have decided that there is no reason not to buy. I just do not think 11 is a great entry point FOR ME. I placed an order for 0.08 and one for 0.10. If it holds 11, then I don't get any more shares, but the price holds. If it drops, then I pick up more shares and improve my cost average.

    The ups and downs of this stock make absolutely no sence, which makes me wearing of putting in any more money (which is why I initially said Hold), but there is no way BK is claimed in Feb. Even if Ergen has ALL of the May AND Dec debt (which will never happen) there is still time for the economy to turn around and SIRI to get a loan or for Sirius to sell more lifetime subs and bring in enough cash to pay most of it off.

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