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  1. Whynot is offline
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    Joined: Sep 2008 Location: The Mid-Atlantic Posts: 113
    12-04-2008, 01:51 PM #31


    Quote Originally Posted by Siriusowner View Post
    Good, at least you acknowledge you are gambling and you know you can loose it all.

    I do have a question though, how did you calculate the odds for SIRI in the long term ?

    Did you use the S&P 500 historic rate of returns ? or NASDAQ's composite ? How do you know the odds are in your favor ? This is killing me, you figured out and I could not, damn !

    Please let me know. Thanks.
    Siriusowner- The only thing that could bring this stock any lower is BK and no one thinks that there in much likelyhood of that. I believe even Newman (apologies if I'm wrong) mentioned in another thread that there was no more than a 20% chance of that happening. There is no metrix at this point.....just blind faith, which will either pay off or leave me with a loss I'm willing to part with for the chances of the GREAT return in the future.


  2. Newman is offline
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    Joined: Jun 2007 Location: Dallas Texas Posts: 1,162
    12-04-2008, 02:30 PM #32
    To be completely fair, yes, that was my number, but it was a complete guess on my part. I have nothing to back that number up.

  3. Pooldad is offline
    Junior Member
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    Joined: Dec 2008 Posts: 9
    12-04-2008, 03:18 PM #33


    Hello all!!! I am new at this board and new at investing. I've learned alittle while reading all the threads over the past 5 months. I have 5400 shares. I started at 2.70 and have averaged down to about 1.15. Hope when this economic turmoil goes away, we all can see some money back within the next 1-3 years. I'm hopefull!!!!

    when it all happens!!!!

  4. MBD529 is offline
    Junior Member
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    Joined: Nov 2008 Posts: 5
    12-04-2008, 04:14 PM #34
    300k i know, im an idiot... cost basis 1.30

  5. m4svt is offline
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    Joined: Sep 2007 Posts: 151
    12-04-2008, 04:35 PM #35
    some of you dudes are rich

  6. Gnarkillz is offline
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    Joined: Nov 2008 Location: Syracuse, NY Posts: 34
    12-04-2008, 10:24 PM #36
    9059 @ avg cost of .90

  7. Greenland is offline
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    Joined: Jul 2008 Location: nation's capitol Posts: 119
    12-04-2008, 11:21 PM #37


    @ 2.14

    switched jobs and rolled my 401k over and took a distribution out when i heard positive news on the merger. after that my favorite album to listen to on repeat was nine inch nails - " the downard spiral "

    gonna buy 4800 more as a present to myself , you guys should join me and we laugh about this ten tears from now.

  8. Pooldad is offline
    Junior Member
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    Joined: Dec 2008 Posts: 9
    12-05-2008, 11:09 AM #38


    I should if I had alittle more cash flow. Right now I'm liek the rest fo the country; I'm counting my change...

  9. Siriusowner is offline
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    Joined: Nov 2008 Location: The Oil Patch, Texas Posts: 922
    12-05-2008, 11:22 AM #39
    Quote Originally Posted by m4svt View Post
    some of you dudes are rich
    Some are not anymore. This is why I've been saying, invest... do not gamble....

  10. Siriusowner is offline
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    Joined: Nov 2008 Location: The Oil Patch, Texas Posts: 922
    12-05-2008, 11:50 AM #40
    Quote Originally Posted by eric View Post
    No, you dont win the asshole award. We gambled....we lost. But hey, maybe not. I've still got a little hope. Siriusowner, not looking for lectures or even sympathy. Knew the risks. At the time, thought the risk was low. Then kept buying on the way down. Stupid and greedy on my part but blame no one but myself. Not Mel, Cramer, or even G.S. Good lesson learned. Luckily still fairly young. I'll survive. Gulp.........
    I am not lecturing anyone. I am sometimes cynic and sarcastic because I can not avoid it. It is my nature.

    Anyway, did you use probability to analyze the risk ? If you knew the risks I assume you did.

    The most simple way:

    Risk = Probability of an even occurring x impact of event ocurring.

    There are more complex definitions, however I am not going to post them here.

    Just want to make sure y'all understand that playing the stock market involves knowing and be good at math... a subject I know only about 5% of my classmates - including me - liked when I was in school.

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