SIRI Monthy Thread January, 2015!!

To be honest... With rate hikes in the future and the world economy not looking good, $2.75 looks better each passing day, HOWEVER, I would love for it go to $4-$5+. Unfortunately, when you see the stock act like this when auto sales are doing fantastic and they had a great 2014, etc... it's frustrating as hell to watch. I really hope you stick with it and make a ton of money! I will say this... $2.75 print and I will be backing the truck up!


You're right about this...!!!!
Faulkner_SA;87347$3.40 for SIRI today is cheaper than $2.97 for SIRI in 2012.... just sayin' :money:

15 minutes

http://ir.libertymedia.com/events.cfm

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Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA

I'd actually agree with you here. It has to be wildly frustrating for a lot of people who may need to sell (or simply want to sell). It's a buyer's market for SIRI and not really friendly for the sellers. And with guidance like that it could drag around for the whole year yet again.

People may want to sell SIRI and flip around in other stocks. I know I have said it a million times but as a buyer (both periodically during the year and due to the buyback) who isn't interested in selling at these valuations... I'm pretty happy at the opportunity this provides on the buy side for both myself as an investor and for the company (my shares) in terms of the buyback.

If it drags here 2015 will absolutely exhaust retail unless institutions decide to become net sellers on a percentage basis.

The average buyer of buy under the 50 day MA is currently exactly flat for a 2 year investment. They may be happy to sell any pop... and thus turn into a simple holder of SIRI for LMCA for 2 years for free...

It's rather fascinating. Going to get far less fascinating, I think, once retail are hammered out.

$3.40 for SIRI today is cheaper than $2.97 for SIRI in 2012.... just sayin' :money:

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why is the donkey even bellyaching about siri....he owns no siri lol. Besides its not as tho we all here only own siri or trade siri. I would venture to guess we are all playing other stocks right now besides siri. If your frustrated with siri get over it.....we all know what the deal is right now with it. I have said it many times here that siri is not an easy stock to trade. So if you are trading it and cant stand the heat then get the hell out of the kitchen. If your not trading it and are investing in it then kick back and check back in a year or two. No big deal.

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Originally Posted by midas360

To be honest... With rate hikes in the future and the world economy not looking good, $2.75 looks better each passing day, HOWEVER, I would love for it go to $4-$5+. Unfortunately, when you see the stock act like this when auto sales are doing fantastic and they had a great 2014, etc... it's frustrating as hell to watch. I really hope you stick with it and make a ton of money! I will say this... $2.75 print and I will be backing the truck up!


You're right about this...!!!!
Faulkner_SA;87347$3.40 for SIRI today is cheaper than $2.97 for SIRI in 2012.... just sayin' :money:

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Frustrating as hell to watch?? good thing you don't have any skin in the game then. :D

Hell man... that's a no brainer. I would be calling someone at Peter Lynch. :)

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Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA

Market psychology... I need to start reading more. Peter Lynch is a customer of ours... his books might be a good place to start... maybe I'll head to Barnes and Noble once I am done with this F'ing furniture... (if they still exist?).

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Coming over to smack some sense into you. Great Opportunity there!! Fruit Cake maybe? j/k

Edit: or should I have said CENTS! :)

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Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA

It's not someone "at" Peter Lynch. It's him personally. I'm not interested in calling and bothering him :P He's a nice guy and doesn't need someone at my level bothering him and being a nuisance. Nobody does ;) lol

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Originally Posted by dm_4

Frustrating as hell to watch?? good thing you don't have any skin in the game then. :D

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As a long time market watcher, investor, and sports fan, I've never understood what "skin in the game" has to do with anything.
Can i not root for a Red Sox viictory unless i buy tickets to a game? And using the same sports analogy, I may WANT my team to win a championship, but based on the team they field i might EXPECT them to finish in the cellar. However bad they may be from season to season i always hope for the best, but my realistic expectations don't always agree. Why should stocks be any different?
Having said that, i'm neither surprised or discouraged by todays price action in light if the pre-announcement. How many times in the past 5 years has mgmt announced great numbers only to see the share price swoon?

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Originally Posted by KnowitALL

As a long time market watcher, investor, and sports fan, I've never understood what "skin in the game" has to do with anything.
Can i not root for a Red Sox viictory unless i buy tickets to a game? And using the same sports analogy, I may WANT my team to win a championship, but based on the team they field i might EXPECT them to finish in the cellar. However bad they may be from season to season i always hope for the best, but my realistic expectations don't always agree. Why should stocks be any different?
Having said that, i'm neither surprised or discouraged by todays price action in light if the pre-announcement. How many times in the past 5 years has mgmt announced great numbers only to see the share price swoon?

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Sure you can root for the Red Sox and as a life long Boston sports team fan myself i would love for you or anyone else to be on board rooting for the Redsox, Bruins, Celtics or Patriots! :) By the way the last 10 years or so its been a great ride for the above mentioned teams and i would be lying if i did not say i feel a little spoiled with all the championships they have won. Personally even if my teams are not a part of the game or main event, i have a tendency to root for the underdogs.

Although i find it a little disingenuous to believe you do not understand what "skin in the game" means i certainly will not fault you for it. I could fill the Library of Congress with the things I should know, but do not.

You say you may WANT your team to win a championship yet based on the team they field you might EXPECT them to lose. Nothing wrong with that statement but let me ask you this...regardless of what you WANT or EXPECT from your team, do you sit in front of the tv or worse yet buy a ticket, go to the venue and then root for your team to lose?? I highly doubt it. If you did i would argue you are then more screwed up than the donkey (midas) :) You root for your team to win because you are passionate about the team and you want to see them win not lose regardless of the outcome.

Now lets take it a step further. You said you were a watcher, investor, and sports fan. You did not say you were a bettor per se although you play options so to me that is a bettor. I like to wager occasionally on a few games here and there, Super Bowl, Kentucky Derby, etc. When i put 500 dollars on a/my team I then have "skin in the game". I certainly want my team to win A LOT more than not having a financial stake on the outcome. I actually enjoy watching a game with no money on it (that was not always the case), much less stressful, a lot more enjoyable and much easier to accept and deal with if the team i want to win loses. You ask why should stocks be any different??? There really is no difference. Instead of betting on the Red Sox, you decide to bet on stock ABC. You can bet on ABC to go higher or lower. Place your bet on ABC and hope it does what you want it to do so you can collect your winnings. Hopefully you have a better understanding of what "skin in the game" means...or at least what it means to me.

My point in my original comment is the donkey has no "skin in the game" yet he comes here where others do have "skin" and says thing like siri IS going to 2.75. today the donkey had several different posts bellyaching about how frustrating the stock is? How glad he is he does not own it? Yet says he hopes it goes to five dollars, yet in the next breath says i will back up the truck at 2.75. Say what????? :out: talk about passive/aggressive lol. If he wants to continue to be a passive/aggressive cheerleader with no "skin in the game" so be it. Since you like sports analogies what the donkey is doing is akin to showing up at say a Yankees/Red Sox game at Yankee Stadium and rooting for the Reds Sox surrounded by a bunch of drunk Yankees fans with skin on the Yankees. Smart? Nope...not at all!! Expect to get your ass kicked in for doing so?? Absolutely! I could go on and on....but i will not bore you any further.

Btw this weekend my Patriots are playing the Baltimore Ravens. I want my pats to win, I expect they will...but i also know the Ravens D is absolutely VICIOUS and is going to give our O-Line massive fits. Tommy Terrific could get injured in this one. Its going to be one hell of a game to watch and im looking to watch two very good teams go at it. Now one rule i learned early on is to always bet with your wallet, not with your heart. I will not be betting this game. However if i were to bet it, I would be inclined to take the Birds and the points :cheers:

EDIT: As far as you not being surprised or discouraged with today's price action....i absolutely agree 100 percent. Doesn't bother this "rookie" one bit...no pun intended.

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Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA

I'll go back to shutting the hell up and vanish again once I position for 2016 so for those of you wishing I would shut up you'll get it :) Just sharing my thoughts as I knock this around in my head a bit if anyone has any interest.

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Good point about the NOLS....a not so much discussed topic these days, but important as you pointed out. thanks.

[QUOTE=dm_4;87364]"Although i find it a little disingenuous to believe you do not understand what "skin in the game" means i certainly will not fault you for it. I could fill the Library of Congress with the things I should know, but do not."

"You say you may WANT your team to win a championship yet based on the team they field you might EXPECT them to lose. Nothing wrong with that statement but let me ask you this...regardless of what you WANT or EXPECT from your team, do you sit in front of the tv or worse yet buy a ticket, go to the venue and then root for your team to lose?? I highly doubt it. If you did i would argue you are then more screwed up than the donkey (midas) :) You root for your team to win because you are passionate about the team and you want to see them win not lose regardless of the outcome."



Please read again. I'm not saying I don't know what "skin in the game" means. Of course I do. What I said was I never understood what having skin in the game had to do with anything. Meaning, you can root for or against someone or something (or some stock) without having any personal stake in the outcome. And you can predict an outcome without necessarily wanting it to occur. It happens all the time.

I have an acquaintance who shares my interest in options. Every week he sells far out of the money (maybe $150 away from the market price) puts AND calls on the NDX that expire each Friday. I won't get into the specifics of his strategy here but his goal, of course, is for the NDX to settle somewhere between the two strike prices. We talk every week and even though it's not my money, and I have no skin in that game, I watch the NDX closely as the week progresses in order cheer him on and to see how he's doing. More times than I can count I've told him that he's setting his strikes too close and that he's gonna lose his shirt. Most of the time he's right and ends up out of the money and keeping the premium. But about 1 in 10 times I'm right and he's wrong and he gets his ass handed to him in a sack. But I take no pleasure in being right. It just is what it is. And when he proves me wrong I'm happy for him. I hate to see him lose money! So you see, I have no skin in the game and my prediction often is the opposite of my friend's, but I root for his success.

Since we all love sports so much, I'll provide another example. Last weekend the Ohio State Buckeyes played the Alabama Crimson Tide. I don't bet on games. I never attended Ohio State. I've never even been on campus but for some reason they are "my team" (my brother roots for Michigan so it's been a good year). Clearly I have No Skin In The Game other then just pure entertainment. But last weekend as I sat down to watch the Sugar Bowl with friends I predicted that Alabama would prevail. Why? I certainly didn't want them to beat OSU, but on paper at least I thought Bama seemed to be the better team and I didn't expect a third string QB to be able to withstand the pressure from what is arguably the nation's top college defense. Throughout the first half my prediction seemed to be coming true and with every busted play and every score against the Bucks I would utter "told ya so". However, as my team rallied, I cheered....I still didn't think they'd pull it off, but I hoped for the possibility. Even with the clock running out and my team ahead by a touchdown I was still saying "there's too much time on the clock, Bama is gonna pull this off". In the end I was proved wrong but my victory cheers were just as loud as those in the room who were positive all along that the Bucks would win.

Now, as long as we are talking sports I will say I enjoy college ball more than pro ball because there seems to be more sportsmanship. In the OSU/Bama game, even though they were opponents both the coaches and the players from both teams had complimentary things to say about the other team before and after the game. I hate trash talking and I see no place for it. I say "let your playing do the talking" - the scoreboard will tell the tale. I also see no need for trash talking here and won't be a part of it. If people here feel the need to validate their position by insulting or trash talking those that hold a different or opposite position then fine, that's their business, but I find it juvenile and pointless. Like I said in an earlier post, you can choose to be part of the problem or part of the solution. Going forward, my solution is to not legitimize insults or trash talking by responding or acknowledging such with a response of any kind.