Siri Monthly Tread. September

More folks still mulling over the latest $2 billion being added.

Looking At The Significance Of Sirius XM's Latest $2 billion Share Repurchase Program

Wuz getting a little nostalgic myself tonight so I was just perusing some posts from back at the start of the year. This little gem was from Jan 6, 2015.

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Originally Posted by waldo29

DM, throw mine in there if you can stand it. 3.86 for a 10.28% return off of the 12/31/2014 3.50 close. I assume 'Price is Right' rules are in place for this?

You may have also heard I also have a low for the year. The ex-CBH's are also hanging on it (imo), they lost their FCF (interest payments) and would want to see the companies next interpretation on future growth to see if their ROC (or ROI) is worth hanging on to their new shares in exchange for taking on higher risk in the capital structure. There are a lot of opportunities out there, we want them to hang around and 'lock' those shares up as tight as LM's. Unimpressive guidance means they are mor elikely to take their capital elsewhere. Latest for us to have their answer within the next 30 to 40 days. The company needs to get off the ball and not low ball growth this time around. This range is getting old for a lot of people.

dm_4............................$4.44
beehaus........................$5.25
S.F...............................$4.18
62 Olds.........................$4.56
Wolf.............................$4.18
Osprey.........................$4.23
bdp..............................$4.79
Nazareth......................$4.12
siriustimes...................$4.21
bcoz...........................$4.30
Garcar........................$4.36
I'ts for chits n grins ...so relax lol....life is short

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For the record Denco came in after and posted a EOY target of $1, I guess employing the old "Price is Right" strategy of hoping everyones disqualifies themselves with an over-bid.

Assuming, as Waldo mentions above, that "Price is Right" rules are in place, if the year ended today Waldo would be the closest but over-bid, leaving Denco to COME ON DOWN!

However, at this point in the year, there's still a little less than 4 months to go and a lot could happen so fasten your seat belts and hang on for the last four laps!

Beehaus, you have some serious water to carry to hit your target. Same with BDP.
I'm starting to thing that S.F's $4.18 might be the price to beat. Not making predictions....just sayin'

Here's another one from back at the beginning of they year:

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Originally Posted by KnowitALL

Since everyone (so far) feels comfortable with SIRI at $4+ by eoy, there's an interesting bullish credit spread that some may want to look at.
Based on the current price it looks like one could establish a spread by selling the Jan16 $4 put and buying the Jan16 $3.50 put for a net credit of about $.32/share. If one were to establish this position (big "if" - don't know what the open interest is) with 100 contracts one could control 10,000 shares using only $5000 of margin while at the same time limiting downside to only about $.18/share (net premium received), or $1800 total. At the same time the investor is collecting $3200 now which is maximum profit should the stock settle at $4.01 or higher at Jan16 op-ex.
Not making any recommendation here , but just thought I'd put it out there for consideration since everyone seems pretty comfortable with the stock being over $4 by eoy.
As always, before you establish any options positions be sure you understand how they work and what your obligations are while the position is open as well as at settlement. Remember, options are leverage, and you can get your self in a heaping-helping of trouble in no time flat if you don't know how they work.

oh, and in case your might be wondering how I arrived at a $.32 net credit, I simply took the mid point of the bid/ask on the $4 put and subtracted the mid point of the bid/ask on the $3.50 put. It doesn't always work out like that but it's a decent guestimate. Your results may vary.

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Just checking the options chain, it looks like if one had established this position you could close it out now for about $.16/share....leaving you with a net profit of $.16/share.....good trade!

Good morning folks! Another quiet and productive day in the forum. It's looking good for SIRI investors who bot the dip. The stock looks to be opening up a penny or 2 which can be a lot if you trade huge blocks (which I know that some do). Congrats! Only news today is the usual "Content News" which is always good for SIRI customers. Good luck and I hope you do well!! :money::thumbup:


Edit: @user... there's 4 months left until the EOY. Anything can happen my friend. :)

Chinese markets are closed today (Thursday) and Friday. Monday could be a bad open for global markets when it comes back online.

Sirius XM Naysayers Are Piling Up

The satellite radio monopoly has its highest short interest since late last year.

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Originally Posted by midas360

Sirius XM Naysayers Are Piling Up

The satellite radio monopoly has its highest short interest since late last year.

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160.5 million shares sounds like a lot but then SIRI has a many billions of shares outstanding. When float is taken into account 160.5 million isn't even a pimple on the ass of John Malone (sorry for the visual :confused:)
As a percentage of the Float - those shares that are available for trading, 160.5 million shares represent just about 7.3%. And days to cover based on trading volume is about 6. Not any small amount to be sure, but certainly there are stocks out there with higher percentages of their float sold short and who have many more days to cover, should any squeeze develop. See the link below.

NFLX for example has "only" 30 million share sold short but that's 7.4% of their float - a higher percentage than SIRI
WIN has only 32 million shares sold short but those 32 million represent a whopping 31% of their float - with the same 6 days to cover that SIRI has
PPC - Pilgrims Pride - the Sausgage People - has a HUGE 65% of their float sold short and it would take more than a month at current volumes to cover those shorts, but Munarriz doesn't write articles about them though, because they wouldn't get the clicks he gets with SIRI.

The article's title is designed to draw in views and perhaps that's not the author's doing. In fact, his article is a fairly positive take on the current state of the stock.

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/pag...highlites.html

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Originally Posted by user34615145

Wuz getting a little nostalgic myself tonight so I was just perusing some posts from back at the start of the year. This little gem was from Jan 6, 2015.



For the record Denco came in after and posted a EOY target of $1, I guess employing the old "Price is Right" strategy of hoping everyones disqualifies themselves with an over-bid.

Assuming, as Waldo mentions above, that "Price is Right" rules are in place, if the year ended today Waldo would be the closest but over-bid, leaving Denco to COME ON DOWN!

However, at this point in the year, there's still a little less than 4 months to go and a lot could happen so fasten your seat belts and hang on for the last four laps!

Beehaus, you have some serious water to carry to hit your target. Same with BDP.
I'm starting to thing that S.F's $4.18 might be the price to beat. Not making predictions....just sayin'

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Yeah, my 5.25 isn't looking good by Dec. 31. I will be happy for a break of $4 at this point.
Does anyone know if the massive 2 yr cup and handle is still valid???

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Originally Posted by beehaus

Yeah, my 5.25 isn't looking good by Dec. 31. I will be happy for a break of $4 at this point.
Does anyone know if the massive 2 yr cup and handle is still valid???

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I'm admittedly no chart master and it always seemed to be kinda like reading tea leaves but it does appear that there is a very long and rather shallow "cup" that stretches from Aug13 to about March of 15 and since then a "handle" that has not broken up (or down) yet.

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Originally Posted by beehaus

Yeah, my 5.25 isn't looking good by Dec. 31. I will be happy for a break of $4 at this point.
Does anyone know if the massive 2 yr cup and handle is still valid???

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Two items of note that make a breakout less likely. However imo, the handle was already way to long to give the pattern a lot of conviction.

1) A break below the low point of the handle (3.63/3.64) reduces the likelihood of a breakout. This occurred on 8/24/2015

2) On a closing basis, if you have a close below the mid point of the cup (left rim @ 4.12 and bottom @3.07) then the pattern has a much less likelihood of a breakout. This puts an 'official' failure with a close below 3.59/3.60. On 8/24/2015 we recovered to have a close @ 3.60.

It's pretty close to being defined as a failed breakout, but not 'officially'. But that might be splitting hairs because of the time factor involved and that is where personal decisions (or frustrations) come in to play. There were two long term competing patterns; Cup & Handle and Head & Shoulders. So far the Head & Shoulder has won out. Those who played it correctly took some profits on the breakdown (hence the strong snap back on 8/24/2015). Oddly we should be thanking them (the shorts and day traders) for the strong snap back to save a 3.60 close. The buyback could only account for a max of [roughly] 10.25 million shares on 8/24/2015.

With 8/24/2015 close @ 3.60 SIRI needs time to build another base to attempt another breakout.

Edit: Some also use the handle dropping below the 200 day moving average to negate the pattern, I do not use this. But in this case it would have been an accurate tell of a failed breakout [thus far].