Spring has sprung! Good week, all. Three weeks ago I was standing in a rare snow flurry here in Georgia and yesterday the high was 86 degrees!
Will SIRI rise like the thermometer?
Printable View
Spring has sprung! Good week, all. Three weeks ago I was standing in a rare snow flurry here in Georgia and yesterday the high was 86 degrees!
Will SIRI rise like the thermometer?
Quote:
Originally Posted by proactiv
Wow, look at you Proact posting weather reports like I do! I must
be rubbing off on you. :D
And now for Michigan weather. Sunny! 70! I have put away my snow
shovel for the winter. Bid adios to Propane Man. Spring has arrived.
Oh ya, Sirius. Hmmmm. I echo Proact. :)
Julie
Well I just saw an article at Barrons and posted this there:
"Ho really, 160,000 subs being lost. Is this the same guy that has projected consistantly lower numbers then actually come out. Is this the same guy who needs to be told by David Frear (SIRIXM CFO) information that has been out since May of last year before he gets it (the GM deal and its benefits that David told him about, were in the 10-Q of the first quarter of 2009). Barton Crockett, is a bafoon he should start to actually read the 10-Qs before he even thinks of doing an analysis of a company. I mean really did he forget that they do actually get retail subs and yes I know on a net basis they lose retail but the fact is a all-in churn rate of 2.5 to 2.8 already includes those losses. The problem is, you cant include the retail losses in a all-in churn rate and then only say OEMs is the only place they will get subs. So Barton Crockett gets it I will give him an example; SIRIXM will lose about 1.4 million subs in a all-in churn this quarter, the OEMs will get SIRIXM about 1.375 million new subs at a peneitration rate of 55% (just from the new car sales not including any they may get from the used car market). Yes that is 55% and that comes from SIRIXM (it is different then a convertion rate of 46% Brandon Mathews (Satwaves) is getting confused with) and yes it is or will be in the high 50% range as SIRIXM says because you have to remember that while FORD, GM and others are in the 70% penitration range, Toyota and others are only in the 40% penitration range. OK so back to basics so if they get 1.375 Million (JUST from the OEMs) and they lose a TOTAL of 1.4 million (which already includes any retail losses) then that still leaves any gains that they did get in retail, remember while they may lose more retail then they get they are going to still get some retail and that the all-in churn already takes out the retail losses but the OEM gain does not add in any retail that was added."
Just did not want all my typing to goto waste.
I also noticed the ramblings of "BARTON CROOKED" . . . whatever he says, good or bad, consider the source . . . just go back and read his reports from November/December 2008 . . .Quote:
Originally Posted by john
As for BM, yes, I noticed that same error but would just assume it to be an honest mistake as surely he understands the difference between the "Install Rate" and the "Take Rate"
As an aside . . I believe the "Installation Rate" is now reported to be 60% and the "Take Rate" 46.4% . . . I do believe your "net-adds" estimate for Q1-10 is attainable.
Last report also indicated monthly average "self-pay churn" of 2% (I know you are citing "All-In Churn"); I would not be surprised to see self-pay churn come in around 1.8/1.9% for Q-1
David Frear . . . .
"Thanks Mel. Our performance in the fourth quarter and full-year continued to demonstrate the strength of the satellite radio business model and the bright future for our company. Through the worst economic environment in a generation our results are phenomenal.
Subscription performance in the quarter was encouraging on virtually all fronts. Gross additions in the quarter were at their highest level since Q2 2008 as automotive sales continued their recovery and our penetration reached 55% for the full-year and 60% in the fourth quarter. Auto sales were 10.4 million for the year and SAR ran at a 10.8 million unit pace for the fourth quarter. Conversion rate was up two percentage points from Q4 2008 at 46.4%.
Self-pay churn was under 2% for the second consecutive quarter despite the introduction of the U.S. music recovery fee in August. Net additions of 257,000 represented our best quarter since Q3 2008 and virtually all of these net additions were self-pay subscribers. We are well positioned for a continuing recovery in the automotive sector with self-pay subs at 15.7 million and total trials, paid and unpaid, in the funnel of 3.6 million as of the end of the year."
As for Barton Crockett I think we said all that needs top be.
As for Brandon Mathews I would also like to think he knows better but remember this is the same guy that I needed to explain the difference between all-in churn and self pay churn when he said SIRIXM would lose 2 MILLION subs in 2009. I also dont think he gets the fact that total OEM gains will include used car sales.
Also thank you, you are correct I should have said and used 60% instead of 55% because while the average is 55% for all of last year they did say that the penetration rate would increase to 60% by the end of the year and it is only logical and reasonable the penetration rate did not go down.
Finally I think it is best to use all-in churn and not self paid churn because it is the most correct it takes everything into account and does not leave anything out like the self pay churn does. Also as for the churn rate, while I hope it went down, I know the first quarter is generally been the worst of all quarters for churn (from Mel in a CC; 1st quarter is usually been our worst quarter for churn due to the fact that we find that many who got the radio as a holiday gift and are signed up in Dec., do not start their subscription til Jan. that means their subscription ends in Jan. and of course Jan. falls into our 1st quarter.)
P.S. I not only think the 100,000 sub gain is possible it is way more likely then a 160,000 loss (or anything close to that kind of a loss). That kind of analysis gos way beyond being conservative at this point and gets into being ridiculous. I would even be willing to consider a estimate from him of a zero sum gain in the 1st quarter to be conservative (or at least semi reasonable) at this point but with the numbers that are out at this point, to even elude to anything like 160,000 loss is nuts. Like I said I believe even Mel felt that they would lose subs in the first quarter BACK when he gave his estimate (of 500,000 gain FOR THE YEAR) because lets face it the first two months of the year (which is the information he had at that time) were looking like they would lose some subs. Mel also knows that OEM sales increase as the year gos on and that the first quarter is generally the worst for OEMs also.
. . . . you by now know that something is brewing between Sirius XM and Liberty Media et al that will likely involve Liberty increasing their ownership interest in Siri at some level up to 49.9% . . . this speculation is supported by a recent filing with FTC/DOJ for early termination of the merger waiting period under the HSR Act . . .
There is wide ranging speculation as to the mechanism by which the ownership stake will be increased . . . but very little in the way of factual support at this time.
To get up to speed on this issue I recommend reading Relmor's latest news post; the link is provided at the bottom of this post.
http://www.kingofalltrades.com/2010/04/06/11473.html
The Hart-Scott-Rodino Act requires under certain circumstances that prospective acquirers of voting securities or assets apply for clearance from regulators. Requests for early termination or clearance are granted when the Federal Trade Commission and the antitrust division of the Department of Justice have determined that they won't take action during the waiting period.
One small footnote I would add to Relmor's news post:
Mel Karmazin was in fact awarded 120,000,000 options at $0.43 shortly after the Investment Agreement with Liberty was memorialized, the Shareholder Rights Plan (read Poison Pill) adopted and the Siri Board Seats filled-out by the preordained Liberty Media contingent . . . .
Some might reasonably argue that this creates the appearance of a "quid pro quo"
One more thought on the Liberty/Siri HSR early termination . .
I am incredulous that Mel Karmazin would schlep Patrick Donnelly down to the NASDAQ Appeals Panel hearing on April 29th after having just approved some act that is dilutive to common equity . . . thus it is hard for me to imagine a debt-for-equity swap or straight-up direct-sale of authorized but unissued shares to Liberty . . .
Crazy Mad Volume and up $0.07!
I have no idea but I really do not believe it is technicals
Something else is driving this volume and straight up price action
edit: closing in on $0.95
edit: $0.95 is in/push toward $0.96
edit: there goes $0.96/volume 312mm!!
edit: $0.94 at 550mm volume - OOH-FAH!
MSNBC launches on Siri
Somehow I don't think that has anything to do with it, MSNBC has some pretty poor ratings afaik but correct me if im wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill
No-no Voogru, I was being facetious . . just taking a playful jab at Lloyd Handwringer aka HavakashaQuote:
Originally Posted by voogru
Last Sale $ 0.9403
Change Net / % 0.0705 8.11%
Best Bid / Ask $ 0.9403 / $ 0.9404
1y Target Est: $ 1.20
Today's High / Low $ 0.9597 / $ 0.8745
Share Volume 564,370,019
10 mins to go and we are closing in on volume of
600,000,000 shares
Could Liberty be in the open market spending the $250mm that might have triggered the HSR Act filing in the first place?
We will know soon enough . . .
If Liberty is buying today (and I did say "IF") . . . consider those shares effectively removed from the float . . :)
Last Sale $ 0.9534
Change Net / % 0.0836 9.61%
Best Bid / Ask $ 0.953 / $ 0.9535
1y Target Est: $ 1.20
Today's High / Low $ 0.9597 / $ 0.8745
Share Volume 608,764,559
50 Day Avg. Daily Volume 138,777,885
Wow! What a day!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill
I refuse to ever go back to a site that is so politcally correct that it gets in the way of facts being put out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill
First of all that might be true but somehow I would doubt that they are willing to put so much into it at once and not buy slower and get it at a lower PPS. Then again I also think Liberty is fully fested in making sure there is no RS and will do what ever else is needed to get it over a dollar to make sure it is not needed. It would cost them much more in the end if a RS happens to take over SIRIXM because then they would not only have to play with the retail investor but big investment banks with much more money and that would drive the price way higher if they (the big investment banks) even get the smallest hint that Liberty is trying or wanting to take over SIRIXM (or any other company for that matter) They are not afraid to make a quick buck on such a move.
Now I think this maybe some of everything to include, the fact we are now fast approching another CC and the March OEM numbers have shown a addition to the subscriber roll and not a loss as was expected. That is going to be a big plus going into the next quarter where I believe Mel knows OEM numbers will only get better.
As a side note; I was just listening to the radio this morning inwhich a analyst was talking about the March numbers and the age of the cars that are out today. What he has seen is that that age is the oldest it has been in history and when it has gotten close to that old before, there was a huge uptic in OEM sales not to long after (he did add that he would like to see a increase in household incomes and discretionary spending first). He also added that invatories are at very low levels (on a 5 year average) and that OEMs will soon have to build up those invatories more likely sooner then later. He had projected that the numbers this year could hit 11 to 12 million run rate when a buildup in invatories is added in OR if that is not done then by next year they are looking at a likely 12 to 13 million run rate. The basic fact is cars dont last forever and the longer they wait the older the cars get and HAVE to be replace.
On the down side he did add that he does not see run rates getting to 15 or 16 million again for a long time because at a 13 million run rate they will be able to keep up with demand and historic life spans.
By - Spencer Osborne
This deserves an article, but I know I will get slammed if I write it. Today Stern discussed the Sirius XM customer service stance that, "Stern will be back, he has nowhere else to go."
Now some of this is hyped by Stern, that is for sure.....however, there is an issue with customer service telling consumers that Stern will be back. The fact is that they don't know yet, and to tell consumers misinformation is simply wrong.
Not only is it wrong, but it gives Stern MORE ammunition in his negotiations with Sirius XM.
The fact of the matter is that the Stern issue needs to be solved prior to the Q4 retail selling season. The company will have a "moral" dilemma of a Q3 and Q4 advertising campaign that touts Stern when he may not yet be signed. Thus, they will likely have to do a campaign without Stern, which in and of itself will raise even more questions and concerns.
It is for this reason that the company needs to resolve this in the next 3 to 4 months, or risk having to advertise without the ability to tout Stern.
If Stern is not signing, the company can focus and promote alternative content.
The bottom line is that customer service needs to be put under more control, and Sirius XM needs to get to a decision on the Stern issue. Time is ticking