SiriusXM Weekly Stock Thread for March 22, 2010
Mar 23, 2010 08:58 ET
TrueCar Forecasts March Auto Sales and Incentives Spending
Race for the Top Becomes Interesting as Toyota Makes Strong Return
SANTA MONICA, CA--(Marketwire - March 23, 2010) - TrueCar.com (www.truecar.com), the authority on new car pricing, forecasted today that March 2010 light vehicle sales (including fleet) in the U.S. is expected to be 1,021,465 units, a jump of nearly 31% from February 2010 and more than 19% from this time last year (on an unadjusted basis). March's forecast translates into a SAAR level of 11.3 million new car sales.
According to the experts at TrueCar.com, industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,800 in March, up 3.2% from February 2010 but down 9.7% from this time last year.
full article with charts can be viewed at:
http://www.marketwire.com/press-rele...ng-1136121.htm
Hey, Wonderdich Securities got it right this time!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SiriuslyLong
I'm not sure if that's good news or bad? I had seen SAAR projected at like 13.2, or at least I thought I did.
"Sirius XM (SIRI) rose by 3 cents, or 3.8%, to 89 cents in the premarket session after Wunderlich Securities said the recent confusing stock action sparked by differing estimates for March auto sales actually belies good news. The firm said that what
matters long term for Sirius XM is the sustainable run rate for U.S. vehicle
sales rather than monthly aberrations. The 50-day average daily volume for Sirius XM is 107.96 million, according to the Nasdaq. More than 237 million shares changed hands Monday."
Come-on now, everybody sing along with me . . . you know the tune . . . in belated honor of St Paddy's Day. . . here we go (me-me-me):
H-A-Double R-I, G-A-N spells HOOLIGAN, HOOLIGAN . . .
Barton Crooked of Lizard Capital Chimes-In
Looks like all the matchstick men are checking-in on Siri:
By Tiernan Ray
Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) shares rose steadily throughout this morning and are now surrendering some of their gains, though the stock is still up a penny, at about 89 cents, on rumors that Lazard Capital Markets made some bullish comments on the stock.
That’s kind of true, but not entirely.
Lazard Capital analyst Barton Crockett this afternoon says his outlook on Sirius is still a “Buy,” but he has no new insights on the stock this week, according to a phone call I had with him this afternoon.
Barton has a $1.35 price target on the stock, and reiterated to me that he sees the company’s revenue rising to $4 billion in 2015, with $1 billion in free cash flow by then and a little more than that in Ebitda, up from $2.5 billion in revenue last year and $423 million in Ebitda.
“I think they’re on a good trajectory, they’re deleveraging, and people haven’t looked at the stock in awhile, and it’s time to do so,” Crockett told me.
Crockett has been hosting meetings between Sirius and investors this week, but he says there’ve been no significant anecdotes nor forecasts to report.
Correction: An earlier version of this post contained a typo listing Crockett’s price target on Sirius at $35; that would be quite a return, but I’m afraid Crockett’s actual price target is $1.35. Still, a more than 30% gain if that does happen. My apologies for any confusion caused by the error.
Good or bad, I wouldn't trust any of these guys . . . they are professional con-men . . . go back and read some of Barton Crooked's research from November/December 2008 and you will see what I mean!
For example, we are still waiting for Matthew Hooligan to take ownership of his own research and revise his price target to $1.85 . . . . I mean, hey, he wasn't calling the February SAAR an "aberration" . . . so why should the March SAAR be . . . can't have it both ways Hooligan.
You may just want to drop coverage now and salvage your career Hooligan. As you are by now aware, you will be watched more closely on this equity than any other you or your firm has ever covered.
NASDAQ Sets SIRIUS XM Hearing for April 29, 2010
press release
March 26, 2010, 8:00 a.m. EDT
NASDAQ Sets SIRIUS XM Hearing for April 29, 2010
Hearing Stays All Action by NASDAQ
NEW YORK, March 26, 2010 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- SIRIUS XM Radio Inc. today announced that The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC ("NASDAQ") has scheduled a hearing on April 29, 2010, at which the Company will be afforded the opportunity to request continued listing on The NASDAQ Global Select Market pending its return to compliance with NASDAQ's $1.00 per share bid price requirement.
The hearing before a NASDAQ Listing Qualifications Panel (the "Panel") stays all action by NASDAQ. Under NASDAQ's current Listing Rules, the Panel may grant the Company up to an additional 180 days from the date of the staff's most recent notification of non-compliance, or through September 13, 2010, to comply with the NASDAQ bid price requirement. The Company does not expect to receive a written decision of the Panel for up to 45 days following the hearing.
The Company intends to take all necessary steps to maintain the listing of its common stock on The NASDAQ Global Select Market. The Company's stockholders have granted the Company's board of directors the discretion to effect a reverse stock split, which would bring the Company into compliance with the NASDAQ bid price requirement. While the authority granted to the board expires on June 30, 2010, the Company will seek approval from stockholders at its upcoming annual meeting to extend that authority through June 30, 2011. The board of directors intends to effect the reverse stock split only if it determines the action to be in the best interests of stockholders.
Woo-Boy . . I'm really holding my breath on this one! I hear the typewriter keys klinking away over at thestreet.con!
Oops, Here's thestreet.con now. Right on time!
I wonder what Jimmy's got up his sleeve this time . . . Here's Part 1
Sirius XM's Rebound: Why Now?
By Andrea Tse 03/25/10 - 05:11 PM EDT
SIRI UPNEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Analysts are conflicted about their views on Sirius XM(SIRI), with some skeptical about the company's soundness as a stock investment -- and others wholeheartedly confident of its financial strength.
BGB Securities analyst Murray Arenson, for example, likes the company. "I think it's growing and I think the outlook is strong. You've got a very larger subscriber base growing" and "a rebound at this stage of the game on auto sales."
Arenson adds that though the prevailing view seems to be that Sirius star Howard Stern and Sirius will work out an agreement as his current contract expires at the end of 2010, "I think Sirius will be financially okay" regardless of the outcome. "Sirius is in a strong place. It is a healthy, vibrant company."
Sirius XM stock finished Thursday's trading session down 0.9% to 87 cents. Sirius XM stock had risen by 2.8% to 91 cents in midday trading Thursday, maintaining a four-day upward trend for the stock. Volumes of Sirius XM stock being traded have reached 219.a million Thursday, compared with the three-month average trading volume of 97.4 million.
What's in store for SIRI if it's delisted by the Nasdaq?
Sirius XM stock had finished Monday's trading session up about 4% to 86 cents after sliding 3.1% to 80 cents Monday morning. Many market observers believe the rise in volume had much to do with the addition of Sirius XM to the NASDAQ Q-50 Index, effective at the market open Monday.
Arenson says this is probably one good reason why the stock shot up that day, "but may not explain it all," given that the stock has been volatile with many moving pieces, including its recent Nasdaq delisting notice and the company's application to get an extension.
"I think they've got a strong argument," to get an extension, Arenson says. On March 17, Sirius announced that it received a letter from the NASDAQ stating that the company has not regained compliance with the $1 minimum; Sirius XM said that it would ask for continued listing on the NASDAQ pending its return to compliance, while noting that its equity capitalization is greater than about 92% of the companies listed on the NASDAQ Global Select Market.
BGB Securities' analyst, like many others, have a positive take on Sirius XM stock. But not everyone agrees with it. In fact, Morningstar analyst Michael Corty on March 22 came out with a note saying "we've changed our uncertainty rating for Sirius XM to extreme from very high. The outlook for Sirius' annual cash flows remains very difficult to forecast with precision."
Jimmy's Next Big Scam Part 2 - thestreet.con
Corty's concerns in part stemmed from the company's competition with the widely free terrestrial radio and his expectation of "emerging competition for audio service in vehicles."
Corty also said he doesn't like the fact that the company has a heavy debt load of $3.1 billion: "While its recent debt issuance of $800 million allowed Sirius to extend some of its maturities, the company will still need to access the credit markets in the future."
If Sirius XM runs into problems when it's more difficult to tap into credit, Corty noted, "shareholders could be severely diluted again." Morningstar's current valuation is based on 6.5 billion shares outstanding, assuming Liberty Media changes its preferred shares to common shares.
"Sirius XM Radio lacks an economic moat as terrestrial radio is a substitute product widely available for free, and emerging alternatives for audio content will pose additional competition for the company," Corty writes.
-- Reported by Andrea Tse in New York
Yeesh, I think this guy Corty-Sell-Shorty lacks an "intellectual moat"
Blankfein's "Giant Nuclear-Powered Testicles"
Recent Rolling Stone article by Matt Taibbi:
"Con artists have a word for the inability of their victims to accept that they've been scammed. They call it the "True Believer Syndrome." That's sort of where we are, in a state of nagging disbelief about the real problem on Wall Street. It isn't so much that we have inadequate rules or incompetent regulators, although both of these things are certainly true. The real problem is that it doesn't matter what regulations are in place if the people running the economy are rip-off artists. The system assumes a certain minimum level of ethical behavior and civic instinct over and above what is spelled out by the regulations. If those ethics are absent — well, this thing isn't going to work, no matter what we do. Sure, mugging old ladies is against the law, but it's also easy. To prevent it, we depend, for the most part, not on cops but on people making the conscious decision not to do it.
That's why the biggest gift the bankers got in the bailout was not fiscal but psychological. "The most valuable part of the bailout," says Rep. Sherman, "was the implicit guarantee that they're Too Big to Fail." Instead of liquidating and prosecuting the insolvent institutions that took us all down with them in a giant Ponzi scheme, we have showered them with money and guarantees and all sorts of other enabling gestures. And what should really freak everyone out is the fact that Wall Street immediately started skimming off its own rescue money. If the bailouts validated anew the crooked psychology of the bubble, the recent profit and bonus numbers show that the same psychology is back, thriving, and looking for new disasters to create. "It's evidence," says Rep. Kanjorski, "that they still don't get it."
More to the point, the fact that we haven't done much of anything to change the rules and behavior of Wall Street shows that we still don't get it. Instituting a bailout policy that stressed recapitalizing bad banks was like the addict coming back to the con man to get his lost money back. Ask yourself how well that ever works out. And then get ready for the reload."
Here's the link to the full article:
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics...t_hustle/print
