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Good Morning All, :sunny:
New week. Last day of the month. And September 1 is tomorrow.
Does it get any more exciting than this!
Because I have nothing constructive to contribute,
I'll leave it to you guys to add all your amazing knowledge to
this last week of summer thread. :cool:
Have a wonderful week, :)
Julie
On the "just charts to look at" thread, Relmor posted a chart with the beginning of a Pennant or Flag formation. I posted the question " Is it bullish or bearish ? "....
The answer is: none, yet. Most likely the stock will consolidate for a while, perhaps drifting lower BUT, once it finalizes that consolidation and breaks the Flag pattern, it will continue its original trend, which was up (the pole continuation)... Basically the formation is bullish BUT remember, the price may drift lower before it breaksout off the consolidation period.
Once it breaks the formation the target price for the continuation is: $1.07 (Price last seen towards the end of September 2008 but also the 161% Fibonacci extension).
BTW: I am not trading SIRI these days. SIRI was an exception for a while for me since I do not trade penny stocks.
Thanks Julie.
I am seeing a push down on the charts to .63 Does anyone have a better view? I am not the best chart reader, so I welcome anyone's expertise to shoot me down.
Well, how did you get to that conclusion ? 0.63 ?Quote:
Originally Posted by Siriustunes
There's the Fib levels, they may offer some support, but other than that there's nothing stopping the price to drop like a falling knife to 0.32 BUT if the price consolidates then you have a flag formation, if the price breaksout, it will breakout up as the flag was formed as a bullish flag... and that consolidation will offer a new support level.
The flag may take up to a month to 2 months to form. But once it finishes the price will break up. There's a similar formation between Feb and April of this year, the stock was trading at .10 but then it shoot up to about 0.32-0.35 (the pole) and it consolidated for a while (about a month, the flag) in that area and broke up to 0.45-0.50 in mid April... then the price came back down but it never broke support (the 0.32-0.35 area) and shoot up again to the 0.45-0.50 area but that area became resistance and the stock was unable to break it so it came down again to support (0.32-0.35) and then steadly began climbing again until it shoot up to a new level (0.65-0.70) and formed a pole again....
I'd say, this 0.65-0.70 level is a safe level to buy BUT again, remeber, the pps could drop like a falling knife if the fundamentals don't improve.
Hence why we are in day 7 of the down move. As you see today.Quote:
Originally Posted by Siriusowner
Id say the 10 day is hugging support right now. Looks semi-strong support right now. Could get hairy. I dont think .65 is in doubt today. SHould hold above that. Nice starting point for a new up move. Good .65 base there.
Of course we could be flat for a bit too, maybe bouncing between .73 and .65 all week. Then a challenge on the .80 cent line, or we challenge the gap. Your right, no direction yet.
Look at a picture of a flag, what is its shape ? a pole and then the flag, which is basically a piece of cloth with the shape of a rectangle, but is the rectangle straight and horizontal ?Quote:
Originally Posted by relmor2003
Even with the price going down, it is consolidating and forming a flag.... unless of course the clown the company has as a CEO comes out and screws it up.
No direction only means one thing: consolidation.Quote:
Originally Posted by relmor2003
I found a flag formation in investopedia.com
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/flag.asp
Look at SIRI's 3 month daily chart... damn, that is a bullish flag forming... I may even consider loading up @ 0.65... I'll wait to see if that support is broken....Next large move will probably take the pps to the $1.07 that I mentioned above.
Good stuff. These formations can be weeks to months in the making. Best to keep an eye on the charts for now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Siriusowner
Its definately possible. These formations usually solve the the dominate trend in play. Hence up. :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Siriusowner
Only negative catalyst i see to justify a .61 hit, or .58, would be a medium term or long short term down move in the NASDAQ. I dont see the company helping here. No worries. Auto news tomorrow. Perfect start possibly to help that up move short term, but will still continue in the .78 to .65 range, hence further consolidation required to break out. Medium to longer term, I see the longest case scenario being on the Q3 run up. $1 is definately possible before the CC.
Look at the volume... The volume has been diminishing...Quote:
Originally Posted by relmor2003
I'll start loading up in 10,000 share weekly batches, this looks like a good swing trade.
We need declining volume, as my volume chart suggests, before another major up move can form. This has been a very long time for high volume, historically for the year anyway. I think I know what your thinking. How long do you think this consolidation period will last?Quote:
Originally Posted by Siriusowner
If the stock hits 0.61 or 0.58, it will still be a flag formation... the only way this formation is negated is if the retracement reaches the base of the pole and/or below.Quote:
Originally Posted by relmor2003
Hey Siriusowner, it's nice to hear a little bit of the bull from you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Siriusowner
I have to believe that the way SIRI has traded in the last 12 months has been very abnormal. For those of us who have owned this stock for several years. It appears to be behaving like it used to.
Getting in now at any price in the 60's will be a good long term move. Quite a few folks are still waiting for the 40's to come back. I don't believe that those folks have been a fan of the company for very long. I think they got interested in the last 6 to 12 months. And like I said, those have been abnormal.
I have a buy in today for .655. We'll see if it fills.
Word. :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Siriusowner
It is difficult to say, I think it will last until a week or two weeks before the 3rd quarter earnings announcement... about 8-10 weeks ? This is definitely a medium term swing trade... or an entry point for long term investors.Quote:
Originally Posted by relmor2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by Siriusowner
I was looking at downward pressure on the buy side and .63 looked to stay pretty steady. Also, I look back at the retraction trends relative to volume lulls. Didn't materialize, but that is a good thing.
I am sure your analysis is much more solid in technicals and in fact is proving so today. The one thing I did not consider in the pps support for today is that the car sales numbers come out tomorrow. They are estimating over 1 million for August. That is probably giving some support today and should provide a bump in the pps tomorrow.
The auto manufacturers will need to keep the momentum going as they are calling back workers and ramping up production. My brother works for a very large auto dealer and he said GM, F and Chrysler had some big incentive plans on the schedule before Cash 4 Clunks was passed. I am wondering if they will roll these out in Sept to keep the buying momentum going. I think you see the beginnings of significant promotions with Chrysler and Kia.
I have to say, I am impressed with how SIRI held up today with all the majors down (sans FTSE). It seemed there was a lot of pressure trying to hold down the pps at the close. If they would have let it go it would have probably closed close to even. It is amazing to watch the last 5 minutes of trading with this stock. Seeing an ask of 100 share trades, from 4 or 5 different sources all at the same price jumping ahead of a significantly higher ask to hold down the pps makes me feel confident that this stock will soar soon. If it takes that much effort to hold the cork on, then one day it will pop. Hopefully we all will profit when the grip is loosened.
Tomorrow will be interesting with the car sales numbers. Upward revisions of annualized sales should be discussed tomorrow as well.