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Consolidating at .41 for 30 days? getting ready for a run up, but we doubt the 2Q will be all that great so we may break .37 downward imo. hopefully there is something to hang the streets hat on with some forecasting from our trusty Mel.
8 days to CC.
Caught this from last week....yup, that was me a few months ago, was surfing the net (this site of course) too long before work, then i worked in excercise instead , now i neither surf the net or work out in the morning. Its amazing how routine can be broken by a few events like change of season or a trip.Quote:
Originally Posted by julietoo
Julie, over here :santawave: it tuesday
looks like the market is finally digesting the news that the exclusive radio broadcast of the National Baseball Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony on Sunday, July 26, 2009 was on MLB Home Plate on SXM... as we spike to .4295
.37 ? I don't see this happenning the way the stock is drifting higher. The chance to get in at .37 happenned last week and it recovered quickly. We could close up another 2 cents today to .44.Quote:
Originally Posted by imromo24
Oh, today is Tuesday. :o I guess I should have drank my coffee beforeQuote:
Originally Posted by imromo24
I came online.
Good Morning! :sunny:
Julie
even with the lost subs etc? maybe i should read tylers article now...:)Quote:
Originally Posted by sxminvestor
ok, i guess i had read part of it before, and this is why i think we go down...after the last CC we went down to .30 (a few days/weeks later i think, even though we went into it at .50)
so this is why im worried:
Quote:
The company has not yet disclosed a number in association with paying off debt early. The number is likely to be substantial, and could impact the EPS by as much as a nickle. Thus, what investors need to understand is the reality of such one time charges and balance that against the perception of the street and mainstream media. The facts are that the loss, even if only a one time loss, is real. Understanding that it will not happen again next quarter is also real. Thus, if the perception is a bad miss this quarter, those same investors could be in for a surprise next quarter.
http://siriusbuzz.com/sirius-xm-q2-2009-preview.php
this is what i think is going to matter, we are going to miss the analysts estimates (again)
i don't see how we are going to hold .42 after that, any thoughts why we would go up after a "negative surprise"?Quote:
However, investors should be prepared for an EPS loss to be much more substantial than $0.01 per share.
I personally think it will sell off after the numbers are reported, but I think this will be the last sell off and we go higher from here and each quarter thereafter. I'm playing it to buy these lots and my limit orders are in right now. 10000 shares .37 20000 shares at .35 20000 shares at .30Quote:
Originally Posted by imromo24
That is... completely irrelevant.Quote:
Originally Posted by imromo24
The amount of insider selling in the past few weeks is making me a bit nervous.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewSiriusOwner
No need to worry . . these were merely options that were recently granted in place of paying hard-cash bonuses and subsequently exercised by individual employees of the company . . not a true barometer of insider sentiment . .
however, the cost of the options will be "expensed" in the Company's income statement at the time they are exercised . . so there will be some residual effect to the bottom line earnings in Q2
The exact cost to be expensed in Q2 could be ascertained by going back through the various filings . .
wow this place is a ghost town these days...
Romo
Just wanted to say thanks for the XMP3 comments a few months back...Have been using mine for about 2 months now...mainly in my car...absolutely love it...Now...if I could just get it to record when it is on the docking station...poor signal...no good window with southern exposure...Hope new sat will solve this issue.
Glad to hear it.
Where is your docking station located? Mine is in the North Bedroom and I get full bars with my antenae on my dresser getting the signal through my ceiling attic and roof including shingles.
Let me know if you have any questions anytime.
oh, and the new satellite is a Sirius satellite not an XM one so it won't help us any.
Quote:
Originally Posted by imromo24
it wont be about holding .42. the question is can we hold .50-.55. thats where im expecting the price to hit going into the CC. takedown after unless mel gives ridiculous guidance (which is wishful thinking and highly improbable).
the big question is are we gonna be able to hold gains? if we can , $1 will come sooner than we all expect. if we dont hold gains (which is more probable) we wont see $1 till at least sometime during the Q4. maybe even during Q1. and we should range the 40's (not betting it wont hit 30's either) with the occasional spikes till the next CC... the Q2 CC will not be a total bust. there will be some healthy positives coming out of it. my concern is guidance. thats where the street prices in the stock. if all that comes out of guidance is ebitda .then we are going down for sure. the street wants to hear about future subs, FCF+, when is profit coming, etc. if mel can forecast those metrics, then it will turn into a buying frenzy. but like i said that is wishful thinking. im guessing our current Q will see FCF+ with all the extra revenue . but what do i know?
irish , whatta think?
Your Dead on in my estimation Bassmaster.Guidance is KEY here going forward for SP..Quote:
Originally Posted by bassmaster
IMHO,if we are not FCF+ this Quarter,we are in trouble...of course there will be adjustments,refi deal and stock incentive plan costs of roughly 43.mil,which is minus (.013),also the street estimate...The wild card is Self pay sub loss,which is Rev loss off of FCF bottom line,if like last Quarter we are ok,but if worse,look out for SP and neg Media right down to .30's again.
With first full quarter of Best of,on-line feed and Family plan rev sources,we should see FCF of 38mil to 60mil conservatively positive if Subs are not bad and churn goes down from 1Q...this would give positive earnings of .01 EPS before any unforseen adjustments...
Then you should sell. I would sell if that makes you nervous. Definately. Means you dont understand the stock you own. I never try to own stocks I dont understand. Get a good price today. You should sell. In my opinion of course.Quote:
Originally Posted by NewSiriusOwner