So, how much money is Sirius XM going to make this year?

In March, they got rid of the free internet radio stream, making many upgrade to premium service for $2.99 a month. In addition adding another subscription to your account costs $8.99 instead of the old $6.99. Now they're passing on royalty fees $1.98 a mo for reg subs, $.97 for additions subs and mostly music packages $1.53 a month... And last but not least, the iPhone app, which has been downloaded like crazy... May add a hell of a lot of subs, and subs that cost money... The cheapest plan you can add $2.99 premium internet radio is the $11.95 family friendly plan... So $15+ fees & taxes if you want to hear Sirius XM on your iPhone. And who knows how much Sirius may get from the "Shopping" button the iPhone app...

I'm pretty impressed, a few years ago it was only $12.95... Now plans range from $6.99 ~ $19.99+ fees & charges... Did anybody really see these increases coming? I definitely didn't, with the FCC's 3 year price freeze... I know the timing couldn't be worse, but the companies been around so many years without turning a profit... It looks like Sirius XM may be making money soon...

Make? Zero. Ebita will be destroyed with writedowns and capex. 2010? A good year? 100 million dollars. Wild guess. That would impress the hell out of me. Might be able to get a decent refi if they actual book profits.

lets say we get 8 million downloads by end of month, and lets say 5 percent end up becoming new subscribers. thats 400,000 i believe, some1 might want to check the math im lazy, and how many subs did siri lose last quarter?

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Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos

lets say we get 8 million downloads by end of month, and lets say 5 percent end up becoming new subscribers. thats 400,000 i believe, some1 might want to check the math im lazy, and how many subs did siri lose last quarter?

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i just upgraded to get the internet stream, dont forget customers like me!!!!!

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Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos

lets say we get 8 million downloads by end of month, and lets say 5 percent end up becoming new subscribers. thats 400,000 i believe, some1 might want to check the math im lazy, and how many subs did siri lose last quarter?

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-404,400 last qtr
18,599,456 total subs

Since Sirius XM app beat pandora's music app for #1 spot, and Pandora had 2million iphone users dec 08... Sirius should already have more than 2 million downloads in just a day...

i wish i knew where to find the actual factual numbers when it comes to the downloads, and yeah that was my point m4svt, that if siri got that many to bite they could offset the sub loss from the lack of new cars sold which lets face it cant be as bad as first quarter was. if they could pull 10 percent conversion then even 4 million could offset the subloss if not move them into positive subs. im sure tyler can shoot me down here, or homer.

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Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos

i wish i knew where to find the actual factual numbers when it comes to the downloads, and yeah that was my point m4svt, that if siri got that many to bite they could offset the sub loss from the lack of new cars sold which lets face it cant be as bad as first quarter was. if they could pull 10 percent conversion then even 4 million could offset the subloss if not move them into positive subs. im sure tyler can shoot me down here, or homer.

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wow i just found this article about pandora here The iPhone application has more than 5 million users and brings in 18,000 to 20,000 new ones daily, Westergren said. :eek:

If they have 5 mil users, we have more than 5 mil dls, unless I'm missin something. :cool:

i think they have way more when u count the ipod touch which is an iphone without cell service. where did u get the 5 million downloads number?

i posted the link before, but here u go http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aaKvHKT2hji0

and we beat pandora on thursday.... how many more people dled since then..:cool::cool:

what we need is the numbers, cause i have no freaking clue what to be sure of in terms of howmany downloads we are getting except that on a daily basis we are #2 of all apps. charles where u at? where we find the numbers!


"The iPhone application has more than 5 million users and brings in 18,000 to 20,000 new ones daily, Westergren said."

i think we are beating their 18,000 to 20,000 daily adds. hopefully by alot. like 200,000 a day would be nice :), probably overshooting it, but hey should be at least double that in the first few weeks.

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Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos

what we need is the numbers, cause i have no freaking clue what to be sure of in terms of howmany downloads we are getting except that on a daily basis we are #2 of all apps. charles where u at? where we find the numbers!

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i think apple used to release them initially, but then with that info released it was easy to anticipate companies rev... so i doubt your going to find any numbers, unless theyre announced.... i'm trying to find how many users that paper game has, and even #3 free app, but no dice yet...

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Originally Posted by relmor2003

Make? Zero. Ebita will be destroyed with writedowns and capex. 2010? A good year? 100 million dollars. Wild guess. That would impress the hell out of me. Might be able to get a decent refi if they actual book profits.

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Relmor,if your numbers come true as posted here SXM will be BK by end of 2010,that's how far off you are..

First off,with the new revenue streams coming fast and furius,it is hard to exstrapulate numbers on EPS positive as of right now without seeing 1 full Q of reported REV..But take an educated guess for you here.
1.The royalty pass on will add $140 million to bottom line in 2009
(july29th till Dec 31 2009 )$2 per month for 14.5Mil subs=$140m
For 2010 it is $350m to bottom line with todays sub numbers(no additions of subs)
So right there EBITDA is raised to more than $500m...for 2009(2010=well over $1billion to me)
2.Best of Rev for 700k subs as of 1Q cc for rest of year and any we add to will also increase EBITDA..
3.$2.99 on line fee implemented end of 1Q(no numbers yet)but 3Q's of rev from that.(didn't impact 1Q rev)
4.No appreciable debt due until 2011,2009 was pushed back and Dec bonds will be taken care of with the final $100m loan from Liberty.
Capex for next sat launch was pushed back to 2010,But SXM has right to extend it out further or cancel it.This Sat launch is paid for already.

The credit facility due is 4 payments which 1 was paid in May this year and rest is accounted for already=$175m with final next may 2010..
5.For 2Q i'm looking for .01 to .03 EPS minus Adj..Last Q was -(.01) with -(.07) with Liberty Adj.
The rest of 2009 (3Q and 4Q) looking for Real .08 EPS total...
6.Now 2010 is the Gift from Mel to us share holders,I'm conservatively expecting (get ready) plus $1 billion profit for the year,of course all the IF's being taken into account,SATS crash and all that...

Notice I Didn't even mention I-Phone,that is the wildcard..
If you read the Annual report,the Liberty deal was done to give SXM 2 years of basically debt free to get their house in order and show a huge profit to pay off existing debt and refi what they can't ,further out at better prices.
It was Mel's and Malone's master plan and in my opion it is working great.

Chew on that for awhile..

P.S Thanksgiving will be a very goor time for all of us at SXM shareholder land,
With 3Q report CC in Nov. with great guidance in OEM,EBITDA and Positive EPS(first time) given this stock will soar...

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Originally Posted by m4svt

i think apple used to release them initially, but then with that info released it was easy to anticipate companies rev... so i doubt your going to find any numbers, unless theyre announced.... i'm trying to find how many users that paper game has, and even #3 free app, but no dice yet...

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Not a very scientific approach. . . but take a look at how many people have rated and commented on the apps. Gives at least something to compare since only those who have downloaded can rate or comment. Unfortunately I don't see any way to find raw download numbers.

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Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM

5.For 2Q i'm looking for .01 to .03 EPS minus Adj..Last Q was -(.01) with -(.07) with Liberty Adj.
The rest of 2009 (3Q and 4Q) looking for Real .08 EPS total...
...

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johnny . . don't forget sat-launch cap-ex for Q-3

I gave a low ball estimate, Irish. If they book profits, they will be able to refi those loans due in 2011/2014 hedge too hopefully. This would allow them to sell shares or exchange debt for equity, refi the rest, and they are no where near BK, even if they book only 100 million in profits. Banks just want to see positive numbers. And growth potential, and and industry they feel can make the payments(not to mention Malone as a safety net). Making huge profits in 2010 is a fine goal, and go for it but they should be more concerned with lowering their debt payments, and getting their stock price over $1.50 a share to really make a dent in that debt.