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Im back baby! Bought in at 2.50 and strategically avg. down to .46 a share. It has been a long time since i have seen green on my TDA account with siri.
What is everyones next move? Part of me wanted to sell just because i have my money back. Another part wants to wait for q1 and iphone app. Very tough.
^^ My advice.Quote:
Originally Posted by anthonyf
From here on out, I don't see a lot of downside to the stock. If synergies are working, then I could see us at $1 before Q2 earnings.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anthonyf
You and me both! I'm averaged in at just about .45 and I don't think I've seen green in almost FOUR years. I'm curious as to everyone's next move, but I'm definately hanging on until the Q1 call. I think the ride has just begun.
No one is worried about the subscriber numbers for Q1? The only way I don't see a dip in the stock after the Q1 call is if they announce the iPhone app and people trade on emotion.
That's my 2 cents... I am enjoying the ride just like you guys right now.
Typically the sub numbers have been my biggest fear. However, without a large loss in subs, I see the stock going up. The Iphone app that everyone is so excited about really isn't as big a deal as far as stock price is concerned. I'm sure the publicity is going to boost the SP but its going to be a head fake. The synergies are driving the price at this point and we still have a ways to go on the SP. I have been saying an SP of upper .60's before the Q1 report. After the Q1 (I expect a small loss in subs, rev increase, and best case scenario Sirius XM gives some guidance) we get over 1 and are pushing 1.25 by Q2. If auto sales pick up before Q2 1.25 will be blown by. If stocks are valued 3 to 6 months forward even keeping subs relatively flat should see the SP grow with rev increases due to synergies. Just my take.Quote:
Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz
Just throwing this out there cause I have thought about this a little... Other than a significant loss in subs what else could tank this stock in the near term? A failure in the launch of the next satellite. If for some reason the thing doesn’t make it to orbit because of a catastrophic failure in launch, does the SP take a big hit? I know there is insurance on them but from a psychological standpoint Sirius XM is just beginning to look very attractive. Would a failed launch change that?
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Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz
Charles, the problem is every time you put your 2 cents in it ends up costing us 4.
Sorry had to do it. I say it everytime someone says they are putting there 2 cents in.
I would imagine that they have solid insurance on something like that. There is no way any company slaps a rocket on something over 100 mil and hopes for the best.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dustyoden
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dustyoden
I have to say no because to be honest they lose nothing because of insurance. They have a spare already just sitting there on the ground in storage. The ones in orbit still have 5 years of life left in their orbital life spans. Finally I never liked them spending the money (that they really dont have) to put another satellite up so soon, before really need it. You know it is a cost of about 60 million a year based on a 15 year orbital life span. If they are going to put them up every 10 years that means it gos up to about 90 million a year. 30 million dollars a year, is 30 million dollars a year.
i think the name of the game is can they reach that target of 300 mil, if they seem on pace to reach it then all is good.
I think the Street and Naysayers are worried more about subscriber numbers than those who understand what is driving the bottom line right now.Quote:
Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz
I felt long ago and discussed this with John, that the merged company's metrics are much different than when they were competing and the race for perceived market share was what gave them Street Credibility. Those days are gone and all though Subscriber growth is still important, it must now be viewed as growth at what cost. Loss per share will be more important than sub growth. SAC and ARPU are now more important than subscriber growth. This neutral to slightly negative sub growth due to Churn, is temporary while the OEM market and the Economy as a whole reset.
Revenue streams from successful iPhone Apps, Internet Fees, Secondary Car Market, and the eventual recovery in the primary OEM market will soon be bringing growth in Sub numbers. They are also starting to kick off some live concert tours with Sirius Simulcast which helps. We need more than just J Buffet's Parrot heads to make this type of Grass Roots marketing work. Getting the Dead Heads involved helps also... but they still need more.
I would also stretch that easing of restrictions on trade with Cuba, Puerto Rico, and other Caribean Nations such as Jamaica, The Dominican, and the US Virgin Islands, and the like will bring up Business Subs (resorts) and the retail market. Granted the numbers are relatively small, but with Sirius Birds already in a Geosynch. Equitorial Orbit the geography could easily be covered with minimal Repeater Transponder requirements. I think this is the reason they are stepping up the Fall Launch of Sirius Sat to June 29th I believe.
So yeah Sub Growth is a concern, but a temporary one. Its all about the FCF IMO.
Agreed that we should be concerned about the cost of that growth (any company should) but with this much untapped market, any kind of slow down in growth is concerning to me. Its not like there are 200 million subscribers and the market is getting close to tapped out.
i think we may still be able to pull out a positive sub number, albeit a small one. also i dont think we will see continued losses in subs, if we start losing that sucks but it will turn around with the economy imo. Lets not kid ourselves though it will probably effect the sp if we get a net sub loss. the only way the sp will hold up or rise is if we can show a good fcf number for the quarter, if we do then it should overshadow the loss of subs. Lets hope and pray sirius pulls off another 12 round ko with a positive sub number though, then the sp should rocket, assuming we aren't already well over a dollar by then. once we get over a dollar it gets scary, with this float how high can it possibly go? Will see.
I hear your concern on growth but, my position is that the slowdown is not reflective of the company's diminished product. It is a function of macroeconomics. I am not attempting to say subscriber growth is not a concern long term but, short term it is fairly benign with solid explanations, understood by most investors and the street for any neutral to slightly negative number. Saturation of the market is not even close (200M subs.. geez) . How long have they had OEM penetration over 40% in companies with exclusive contracts? 3 years maybe... The product, which is the content and currently its nationwide delivery system, are in tact, surpassing all of the competition right now...
They have a competitive advantage that will not be quickly overtaken by any of the competition. This secures their business model for the next two years, allowing time for development of their own Internet and 3G products and partnerships. The sky is not falling and any positive numbers in subs, COH, or FCF will have the SP continue to move up....
I myself am anticipating a pull back no matter what when the Q1 is announced because I have been conditioned to believe that the Hype is always squashed by the reality of the report.... bringing the SP down around 3 days after the report when the reality of the work at hand sets in.... There isn't an elevator that goes to 1.50 (bondholder price at merger on the lent shares), and there aren't any straight lines to success.... It will be a bumpy ride as always... As a consumer I look forward to the new products and as an investor I am sleeping much better at night.....:)
I respectfully disagree. I think if Sirius announced a loss of 1 million subscribers, but announced POSITIVE EBITDA for the quarter, the stock would skyrocket.Quote:
Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz
At this point it is all about the companies ability to generate cash. No body wants to see another Feb. 09, and we all know that the company is moments away from making its first true profit. If the company shows that they can turn a profit with AS MANY or even LESS subscribers, the stock price will take off. Sub #s do not mean nearly as much as profit right now. If they can loose subs and make a profit, it is a good thing (VERY temporarily, however)
I wrote this before on the other thread. This is why I dont think we are in for a big down turn:
I believe The churn stays high at 1.8 to even 1.9 because the 1st quarter has almost always been bad for churn. The reason, as stated by SIRI (MEL) in their CC a year or 2 ago, They get a large number of subs that are given as Christmas gifts and are not truely activated till after the 1st of the year. That means they have alot of them that come up for renewal at the same time next year. As for net gains I dont think it is going to be possible with the OEMs not putting out enough to even cover the current churn rate and the fact the retail side is not getting anymore net new subs.
The only way they are going to be able to keep churn in check at this point is to give subscriptions away (which lets face it is happening) free months are being given. Now while this whould drive down the churn rate it would also lower the ARPU. The fix to this lower ARPU is going to be that they just increased their prices on family plans and the internet connection. So one of 4 things happens:
1) The FCF gos way up (when compared to quarter over quarter) because alot of subs prepaid to get their plans locked in at the old rate. ARPU still gos up but by just a little bit (still good considering it gos down most of the time).
2) The ARPU gos way up because they are going to be collecting alot from the increased family plan and internet. They will also have a higher churn rate though.
3) The ARPU gos up a little bit but they show a lower churn then expected. Due to the fact they gave many free months to keep them.
4) There is a mixture of all 3 above.
While I dont think we see a true profit this quarter, I still think it will not be all that bad even if they show a loss of subs due to the other metrics improving greatly. How well the PPS does after is anyones guess. I do think most will be pleased to see the extra revenue added to the coffers reguardless if they lose subs. Most seem to think the loss of subs to be standard at this point (considering the economy) for 1st quarter.
With all that being said, I believe as I have said before of at least .5 (this target was given a month ago and the post was before we hit .5 already) by just before the CC/10-Q. After is anyones guess, I need to see what actually happened in the 1st quarter first.
Ether way you cannot just discount all the extra money they are going to be raking in. Look by their own projections they have at least 22.5% family plans that means about 4.2 million people are ether going to be paying 2 dollars more per month or they are going to be paying ahead to lock the old price in. Then you are going to have those that are going to pay more because they want to keep their internet (most likely a lower number then the family plans). That is going to drive the ARPU way up if they are able to keep churn at a resonable rate naturally.
Here is another example for you lets say half of the 2 million prepay and lets say 1 million of them have the original plan plus 2 family plans attached. That means 1 million subs are going to be paying at least 100 dollars extra which would bring in an extra 100 milion (I wont contribute all that to FCF because who knows what other cost they will have to off set that). That still means though they will have about an extra 100 milion to play around with. Now that leaves 2 million that are going to be paying 2 dollars more which works out to .20 cents added to ARPU. Now that kind of increase in ARPU is going to be huge when tied to the fact they just had another .20 cent increase last quarter. That would be the same as them adding 377,000 subscribers (without actually adding them and all the cost that come with adding them).
John i agree,but i'm looking for 3 things only....
EBITDA EBITDA EBITDA!!!!!!!!
FCF FCF FCF!!!!!!
GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE!!!!!!!!!