Brandon - don't do it - you are wrong !

Wrong on negative sub growth in 2009 - get your facts right first !


-The overall churn from 19.5 million subs would be about 5.1 million for the year with an all-in-churn of 2.2 %

- Using 9.1 million with a penetration rate of 55% (Sirius claiming 60% possible in 2009) = 5 million new subs.

- Let's say on the low side they add 300,000 subs per quarter at retail, that is 1.2 million retail adds. This is a gross figure - lost retail subs in the all-in-churn#.

19.1 start of 2009 +5 million OEM + 1.2 Milion Retail - 5.1 Million All-In Churn = 20.2 by the end of 2009.


You cannot take the OEM take rate and then reduce by another 50% when this is already in the All-in-Churn #'s Sirius has been reporting for many quarters. Also, with the Howard Stern effect faded, you also do not have all the XM subs quitting and going to Sirius. In addition, the service has alot more offerings and better price points to keep subs with lower affordabilty. I do not believe that churn will get any worse than it has been in the past or at least the things I mentioned will negate the poor economic conditions that may have some quit the service. And then we have the IPOD app that is coming, which could change everything.

Brandon -
you need to think twice before you publish something that may be way, way off base. I think you have your facts screwed up and you seem to always bounce from one extreme to the other with bold statements that are not always backed up with all the most accurate facts. I think your off big on this one and you need to review where you are getting your numbers !

SXMinvestor, what are you referring to? Is there an article or post?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bananaz

SXMinvestor, what are you referring to? Is there an article or post?

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Take a look at the thread 12B-25 EXT

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brandon Matthews
With a 9.1 million oem run rate and 1.7% churn they will lose 2 million subscribers in 2009

Quote:
Originally Posted by homer985
Yes, if you believe that RETAIL adds ZERO subscribers in 2009 - then this is possible.

20MM subs with a 1.7% churn is 4MM lost subs in 2009;

9.1MM OEM run rate, with a 50% installation rate and a 50% takeup rate;
leaves 2.28MM OEM additions in 2009

Difference is 1.72MM lost subs for 2009. If you believe that RETAIL has ZERO adds in 2009, then you will have your 2 million lost subscribers in 2009.

However, an average of 500K new retail subs per quarter, would put 2009 totals into the positive.

Yes, completely disagree with your assessment.


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Brandon Matthews:
Apparently Homer, you do not completely disagree. In fact you acknowledge that you concur on nearly every point. I didn't want to see the result that I came up with using the very same methodology. It pained me to pen the article I wrote tonight but it had to be written, which will be published tomorrow.

Well Brandon, did you decide to publish it ?

I don't see it yet.

Loss of 2 million subs in 2009 - I don't think so.

sxminvestor -- I can't argue with your numbers. Obviously with a slightly increasing monthly subscriber base, the churn would be a little higher. But that wouldn't be too significant.

I know I was calculating things differently using gross figures and the self-pay churn, but the figures are similiar in the end.

I do believe that your retail gross additions for 2009 were very conservative. I believe that the gross for 2008 was in the neighborhood of 2MM, so your drop to 1.2MM is a 40% drop. Conservative, likely leaving upside potential.


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Quote:

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Originally Posted by homer985

sxminvestor -- I can't argue with your numbers. Obviously with a slightly increasing monthly subscriber base, the churn would be a little higher. But that wouldn't be too significant.

I know I was calculating things differently using gross figures and the self-pay churn, but the figures are similiar in the end.

I do believe that your retail gross additions for 2009 were very conservative. I believe that the gross for 2008 was in the neighborhood of 2MM, so your drop to 1.2MM is a 40% drop. Conservative, likely leaving upside potential.


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Yes I was being ultra conservative to not appear to be pumping. I was really upset to hear that Brandon was planning on publishing something so negative when I believe he is way off base. Don't we have enough crap being put out there by ignorant bloggers.

I also think that the 9.1mil OEM number is quite pessimistic. If there is even a little bit of a turnaround in the economy I think we easily hit 10mil. Cars will need to be replaced.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by winagain35

I also think that the 9.1mil OEM number is quite pessimistic. If there is even a little bit of a turnaround in the economy I think we easily hit 10mil. Cars will need to be replaced.

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I agree, right now the rate on old cars being junked is in the 12 -14 million per year, so demand will be coming soon. It's better for Sirius if GM is the one floundering, because the stronger Ford is, the more favorable it is to Sirus bottom line.

Also, check out the piece Orbitcast has just done on Sirius' internet strategy - looks extremely promising !

This while Brandon looks to drop a negative misguided bomb.

Something I also would like to remind you is that, first there are a hell of alot used cars out there that have deactivated satellite radios in them. That while the new car sales have decreased the used car sales have picked up. Second the reason retail dropped off so much was almost all due to the fact the penitration rates went up in OEMs (also the Stern effect). Meaning you dont buy a satellite radio at retail to put one in your car if you already have one in your car (in general even if the one in your car sucks).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by john

Something I also would like to remind you is that, first there are a hell of alot used cars out there that have deactivated satellite radios in them. That while the new car sales have decreased the used car sales have picked up. Second the reason retail dropped off so much was almost all due to the fact the penitration rates went up in OEMs (also the Stern effect). Meaning you dont buy a satellite radio at retail to put one in your car if you already have one in your car (in general even if the one in your car sucks).

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More very good points.

I also think that the Circuit City closing stores down will give retail a bit of a boost as all their old stock gets cleared out at a discount. I've seen them 50% off last week and they will likely go as high as they can to liquidate them.

sxminvestor, Just so people are aware. I am not saying it is going to come even close to making up for the bad OEM numbers or economy in general. Used car dealers are only a portion of used car sales (although a large portion) The problem was and has been, getting the used car dealers to push the service. I also think it will be a somewhat considerable add to the final number. As an example, while 500,000 for the year more (in gross) then would have come normally does not come close to make up the difference. It still does go a long way to add to the end of year number.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by john

sxminvestor, Just so people are aware. I am not saying it is going to come even close to making up for the bad OEM numbers or economy in general. Used car dealers are only a portion of used car sales (although a large portion) The problem was and has been, getting the used car dealers to push the service. I also think it will be a somewhat considerable add to the final number. As an example, while 500,000 for the year more (in gross) then would have come normally does not come close to make up the difference. It still does go a long way to add to the end of year number.

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I agree. All of these things help a little bit and can change historical calculations of where subs can come from.

Hi, It is a mistake to write anything using conjecture. The report will come out on or before the 17th. It will have the numbers. There will be a CC on the 17th where we will hear directly from the company.
Guessing now is like being afraid and shooting at shadows. You create confusion. Discipline is the key to good order and making sound decisions.

well the article has been written, im just gonna say it, brandon you better not have sold on the last bk pop and now are trying to get it to drop so you can then buy back and sell on the next pop when they obviously say no bk at cc. This is a stupid article that i do not see any legit reason for writing.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mogami

Hi, It is a mistake to write anything using conjecture. The report will come out on or before the 17th. It will have the numbers. There will be a CC on the 17th where we will hear directly from the company.
Guessing now is like being afraid and shooting at shadows. You create confusion. Discipline is the key to good order and making sound decisions.

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I agree, but for Brandon to claim they will lose 2 million subs in 2009 because he neglects to include retail and other aftermarket radios in his analysis is really screwed up.

So Brandon, no retail afermarket subs will be added in 2009, right. You still can’t explain this and refuse to correct your BOGUS information on this blog.

WHY, what motive do you have to keep such a ridiculous obvious mistake published and possibly picked up by other news sources ?

You still have a chance to not be considered a hack and a coward, so do you want to relook at your net sub additions for 2009 or continue to hide.

“4,284,000 - 2,275,000 = 2,009,000 subscribers to be lost in 2009″ (Brandon says)

I will not let up on this.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by john

sxminvestor, Just so people are aware. I am not saying it is going to come even close to making up for the bad OEM numbers or economy in general. Used car dealers are only a portion of used car sales (although a large portion) The problem was and has been, getting the used car dealers to push the service. I also think it will be a somewhat considerable add to the final number. As an example, while 500,000 for the year more (in gross) then would have come normally does not come close to make up the difference. It still does go a long way to add to the end of year number.

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Absolutely true...The SAR counts are but one metric to consider. I suspect that SIRI will add even more to the mix in time. They may be able to monetize this new joint partnership. Used cars, retail, internet, XM Mobile........all of it counts.

Brandon, we tryed to tell you. Dont do it, now u just look stupid