for sirius? assuming there is no more dilution, no split, and we take care of all this year's debt. Is $3.00 obtainable given the 6b shares?
for sirius? assuming there is no more dilution, no split, and we take care of all this year's debt. Is $3.00 obtainable given the 6b shares?
Wow 18bil market cap that maybe a stretch...you know that would give Malone 7.2bil worth of shares for his $530mm loan to sirius now that is a smart man. I think in current market with good #'s we could reach 6 bil market cap now if Malne has taken his shares at that point you are looking at around $1.00 stock price in next 12months.
Lol, i know it's quite a stretch, it would make my wallet very happy though... I think the market cap of both XMSR and SIRI was around 9b or so when they announced the merger in '07. How things have changed...
Yeah stupid me, I started investing at that time now I only dream of that kind of value.
Don't feel bad, I've been investin in SIRI since, '04, I've lost over $15k in SIRI options over the years.Quote:
Originally Posted by justsomeguy
Well lets hope this is the start of a turn around...With Malone and fresh money on board I hope the dilution is over.
You guys are missing one very important peice of information: Malone was not given any common stock. He was given Perferred shares, which he can convert into common stock if he chooses to. That means that the float is still technically something like 3.5 billion shares. It is also not gaurenteed that Malone will get the full 2.5 billion shares. He gets 40% of the shares issued at the time he decides to convert. If Sirius does another debt-for-equity swap, Malone's number of potential shares recieved would go up. If Sirius buys back shares, then Malone's potential shares go down.
Given the current price and shares outstanding, we still only have a market cap around 350 million. I honestly think we should be trading around a market cap of 1-1.5 billion until the rest of the 2009 debt is taken care of. (That would indicate a potential pps of 0.50-0.75)
thanks for chiming in.:cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by Newman
To get the most benefit from his investment in Sirius XM, I would think Malone would not want to sell the common shares he will get if he converts the preferred shares he is being granted, for these reasons:
1. The higher the stock price, the more security Sirius XM has as a company if they ever want to issue additional shares. It would seem to be in Malone's best interest at this point to see Sirius XM succeed and prosper.
2. It does not appear that Malone needs the money immediately and, as it seems he has faith in the future of Sirius XM, I am sure he thinks the stock price will go up. The higher the stock price, the more money he will get if and when he decides to sell.
3. According to today's 8-k, Malone is precluded from owning more than 49.9% of the common shares of Sirius XM for three years. So, if he ever has any idea of taking over control, he has to either own over 50% of the outstanding shares or, combining his shares with shares of holders who agree with him, must own a large percentage of the outstanding shares. So, being a very smart business man, for reasons of potential "control", I don't see him selling his shares soon because they are at such a low price. He would only have to buy them back later at a higher price, and buying a large quantity in a short period might drive the price up.
3. His selling soon would send the wrong message to investors as to his faith in the company.
4. His selling soon would send the wrong message to potential subscribers who might be thinking of taking long-term subscriptions. If he does not have faith in the long-term existence of Sirius XM (and runs away from investing in it), why should they risk their money with a long-term subscription?
So, whatever his long-term intentions for his participation and investment, I would think he would want to protect his investment and maximize its potential.
I think Malone will hold his shares for awhile, perhaps for a very long time. So, I think people's fears of his being issued a huge amount of stock being dilutive is overblown.
Dude. $3?
At this point, I'd be happy with $1(my break even point).
I've been so battered with this stock and the external forces that continue to bash and keep it down....that even .75 cents is looking like a dream that will never come true.
At the current price of .16 cents I'd have to sink another $2 grand into it to be able to get out at break even of .75 cents.
The target keeps moving with this stock, and no matter how much I average down...I feel like I'm getting farther and farther away from ever breaking even.
Love the product. But I can't stand the equity. It's by far the most manipulated, bashed and toxic stock I've ever been in, and I want OUT.
Nothing against the company. It's just that too many of the big boys have it in for this stock. I've been in it for 4 years now....and I just want my money back. No more dreams of huge pops that never seem to come.
I'd let it ride, but I need my money....and there are so many other equities that I could be making money in right now even in this market.
I just don't trust being long in this stock anymore.
I am going to try to average down a little more and hopefully get out by the end of the year.
Good luck
Heres a thought why not wait the 3 years and take it over. Thats what I would do if I were him.
Y/E 2009 50-75 cents
Y/E 2010 $1.00-1.50
We could see $3.00 around 2013 if they manage the debt. That is if the Mayan calender is wrong ;)
James, That estimate is not unreasonable. I think that $3.00/share this year is wishful thinking at best. With the market so depressed and liquidity so lacking, anyone putting money into stock would be better served by buying safer companies.
SIRI has real, major issues to deal with this year. This is the first. They have some breathing room and a big name guardian (Malone) on their side for a change. The tide is turning but it will be a slow process.
Quote:
Originally Posted by James
I read so many articles about this now there's no hope of me recalling exactly which one it was, but it regarded S&P changing their rating on SXM to 'positive watch'
In that same article it said that S&P's analysts saw a 1 in 3 chance that the company's share price could be 2.50 by January 2010.
I'll see if I can find the article and post a link.
Yea the the 1 in 3 chance is cause of the 2.50 jan calls... Personally I don't think we'll be at 2.50 come jan, but then again I didn't think we'd be at 16 cents today either.Quote:
Originally Posted by huppophonic
I don't know enough yet to make predictions about anything, I'm very new at this whole stock market thing. I look to the opinions of professionals and hope I can spot manipulation, but this just seems like a very optimistic opinion from an entity that doesn't really stand to gain or lose by what it says. It looks to my inexperienced eye like a small vote of confidence in the company and carries more weight (to me) than lots of people's conjecture about what the share price will be.
At this point I am in the black on my investment in SIRI but I'm in no hurry to cash out. I hope the stock goes up and up and up in the coming years once all this debt stuff is really under control.
You guys that are thinking that this stock will reach $3.00 pps are crazy. Even if we somehow took care of our debt this month and report a profit we still wouldn't be at 3 dollars. think im crazy? look at mcdonalds stock they are and have been profitable there stock is close to a 52 low, sales are up i believe. what im saying is untill the market recovers we wont come near our 52 high. plus from an outside the box stance we depend a lot on car sales thats not working out very well so i can see why we are so low of pps but IMHO i think we should be at .60 if we have a decent 4th quarter and keep outperforming in our quarters to come in 09.
Don't forget about the R/S by December if we're not above a buck. After the shorting when the R/S takes place we will still be below a buck.Quote:
Originally Posted by James
As of February 13, 2009, 3,793,193,708 shares of our common stock were outstanding. Keep this number in mind because it will be interesting to see how it grows.
A milli0n dollars a share, thats my preditction