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The secrecy surrounding this company is getting quite frustrating. The secrecy behing the channel line-up changes, the secrecy regarding the Bubba deal, the secrecy regarding plans on refinaning...
Mighty frustrating. :annoyed:
That being said, last week was actually a pretty positive week. Increased dilution to pay off debt was captured positively, and even the Bubba news could not hurt the stock. What does this week hold?
Discuss...
I've been following the 15 days MA closely for the past few weeks and it has been acting first as a resistance and now as a support.
If you run the 15 day MA in a line chart you will notice that it was not broken since July 2008 and price just broke it a few days ago. I bought shares at .13 when price broke it. Now it looks like it is acting as a support since the price came back and tested it but did not break it.
I expect a second test this week. If price does not break it then we have found good support, as I thought at the beginning of the year.
Now it is just a matter of finding where the resistance is, which I think is in the 20 day MA since the price bounced from it a few days ago but it needs to be tested again. It may be tested this week also.
As usual I am also using an oscillator (RSI) to verify price direction and the oscillator was pointing up this morning, so we may have a test of the 20 MA today (around .145). If it bounces down we may have found good resistance.
It looks to me that the stock has been looking for direction since mid- December (consolidating, found support in the .13-.15 range). It maybe Ok to continue accumulating if willing to take gambling type of risks.
Siriusownwer,Quote:
Originally Posted by Siriusowner
You are correct in that SIRI has found support on the 15 DMA as of late, but I see SIRI breaking through the 15 DMA several times since July 2008 - they turned out to be head fakes..
What timeframe are you using on your chart?
What I think is even more significant is the breaking of SIRI's downward trendline the other day, which I commented on and posted a link to a chart that clearly showed it. You can find it in the intraday archives...
I have always been a big fan of hourly charts and the SIRI hourly chart shows this recent reversal pretty clearly and it's pointing at .15 - .16 today...
I am using a daily line chart and I am looking at the last 6 months only, which I think are the most relevant as of today.Quote:
Originally Posted by Demian
OK, I've got the 6 month daily chart in front of me and the 15 DMA line drawn up...
You said that SIRI had not broken the 15 DMA since July of 2008, but that is not true....
SIRI broke the 15 DMA on....
August 15th - 20th
Sept. 2nd
Oct. 27th - 30th
Nov. 4th
Nov. 28th
Dec. 1st
Dec. 4th
Dec 26th
and then now recently since Jan 6th.....
I think the breaking of the long term downward trendline the other day is more significant, since that hasn't happened all of these other times - which turned out to be head fakes...
just bought some more now im averaged down to 8531 @ 0.1686 be nice if it bounced today but no its gottta drop as soon as i buy more lol
the bidders are winning the battle right now
Are you using simple or exponential MA's ? I am using SMA's, I do not see those dates you have as the price breaking the 15 day MA on my chart (which is home). I do not have the chart in front of me but I remember that it may have touched it and bounce off but not broke it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Demian
Trendlines can be broken even if the stock is trading sideways or consolidating. Breaking a trendline does not mean the stock will reverse. Trendlines tend to give you more fake signals because of the way the analyst draws them. I know when you draw a trendline it has to touch 4 or 5 peaks. SIRI has broke several downtrend lines thru the last 6 months just to keep heading South. I do not trust trend lines as much as MA's and oscillators.
UPDATE: I just draw a new chart. It looks like it will test the 15 day SMA today. I was wrong, SIRI bounced off the 30 day SMA Friday not the 20 day SMA. This stock is trading in such a narrow channel that the difference between the 15 and 30 day SMA is only 1 cent.
Stop with the technical crap. The stock is being manipulated.
Prove it...Quote:
Originally Posted by SiriusXMInvestor
Quote:
Originally Posted by Siriusowner
going to have to agree with s.o. for once
PROVE IT!!!!
Siriusowner,Quote:
Originally Posted by Siriusowner
It's always the SMA unless specified otherwise. I was using the 15 day SMA just like you, but SIRI also broke the 15 day EMA a bunch of times too. They were head fakes every time. If you don't see SIRI crossing the 15 day SMA on the dates I listed above, you might have inaccurate charting data....
The 50, 100, and 200 DMA are much more significant than the 15 DMA...
Trying to use technical analysis with a manipulated stock like SIRI is tough, but I do think useful....
Here is the story:
The stock is NOT being manipulated.
The market has been slightly overbought and the sellers are selling, and there isn't much shorting going on.
People are kicked back and not buying very much.
All of my stocks look the same today, going sideways, so actually SIRI is fairing well by comparison.
Trying to figure out where SIRI is going today is just where it is...give or take a little.
At least it isn't crashing...
So, you can relax.
Have a groovy afternoon.
Bill
Overbought?
With SIRI and the market down this much year to date, it needs to be "overbought" a lot more just to get back to where it was....
Am I the only one that thinks that the stock has been manipulated?
I'm thinking it might be manipulated back up too....
If you guys didn't catch the Audiovox conference call today, here is what the CEO said about the new deal with SIRI....
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1143...all-transcript
"....we are proud to add alliances with Sirius XM, Sony Playstation, and Qualcomm’s Media FLO that will provide us tools to continue to deliver on our promise.
There are reasons these industry giants have chosen Audiovox as their partner. We are a strong company with a great portfolio of respected brands. We can react quickly to market situations and can bring enough resources to any partnership.
Our stability, financial strength, and commitment to this industry have been our hallmark for over 45 years. We announced a new agreement with Sirius XM satellite radio. Audiovox has had a long-standing relationship with XM and in the past has been a supplier to Sirius as well.
With this new agreement in place we will become the new merged company’s primary supplier of both XM and Sirius satellite radio products in the aftermarket and we expect this new agreement to more then double our sales in fiscal 2010.
We believe satellite radio is a very viable and competitive technology that will continue to grow. With this two-year agreement we have secured our position as the number one aftermarket hardware supplier for the category.
In fiscal 2009 we expect to do about $50 million in satellite sales and next year this should exceed $100 million. There will be a fixed margin similar to the distribution agreement we entered into with XM in 2005.
Higher overall sales however should enable us to better leverage our overhead structure and generate higher gross profit dollars."
Audiovox shares are spiking today - up about 18%....
Yes, the market in general was slightly overbought. Last week there were big runs on lots of stocks, which is a bearish sign in a bear market. Now everything is settling down for a bit, stocks are paying for it and are going sideways.Quote:
Originally Posted by Demian
As far as SIRIUS, or any other stock, it can certainly be manipulated up or down for a short period of time.
You are very right that there has to be more buyers to make SIRI tick, but people panic on the way down and sell. They are not so enthusiastic to help drive it back up unless it starts a healthy or fast uptrend, then they will jump on the bandwagon and throw money at it even on the way back down for a short time.
Once it levels out, like SIRI, then people aren't so prone to help driving it up unless something happens. If anything happens that is positive, they will be back with the cash. How do you get people enthusiastic again? Beats the hell out of me!
You are right, it is going to take a tremendous amount of buying for SIRI to get back to where it was, and also a whole bunch of time, not to mention some positive events to help make it happen.
In the meantime, I, personally, am not getting worked up about it, because there is not anything that I can reasonably do to help at this point. I wish there was something that I could do, but there isn't.
The market was down all of last week - how can you say that the market is overbought???Quote:
Originally Posted by billhart22
How can you say that the market is going sideways now with the DOW down 142 ???
I forgot to mention, the SMA's will plot differently in the 60 minutes and the daily charts.Quote:
Originally Posted by Demian
The 50 day SMA maybe uselful, the 100 and 200 day are useless for the time being. They are too far away from the price action.
NOTE: Since I am not daytrading these days, I am using a non-live telechart Gold program for $30.00 per month. I have to update it each time I open it but it is acurate. I lost E*Trade Pro because I basically stopped trading during the last quarter due to the turmoil and E*Trade charges $99.00 per month or 30 trades per quarter to use it, but since I slowed down trading what is the use ?
Also, since I am not daytrading but more like swing, momentum, hold and see type of trading these days, I do not use any intraday charts... Only daily or weekly charts.
SIRI closed down at .132 - brought down on the final tick....
16:00:04 $ .132 398
15:59:59 $ .134 7,000
15:59:58 $ .134 1,000
I would contact your chart provider and either have them explain how to use their software correctly or demand a refund for bad data...Quote:
Originally Posted by Siriusowner