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My head is spinning...
This stock seems to be a NO brainer at this price....
Then... Goldman Sachs, Cramer, Shorting, CONSPIRACIES, Convertables coming due 3 times next year. I get why SO many people are scared.
My question is this:
In your most HONEST opinion, if you had no position in the company right now, (like me) would you buy in now?
Thanks. I can't wait to read. Dave
No one can answer that without knowing where you are at financially. Do you have money to play with? Are all of your bills paid? Do you earn a good living? How old are you?
My answer... if you have a few extra bucks that you are not afraid to lose... I think this is a very good price. Are there better buys out there? Probably but, this one sure is fun.
Thanks for responding.
Im 35. Married. No kids. It would literally be a block by block investment over the next 3-4 months.
These are long term prospects. I am reading the conference call now and in general, as a subscriber, I love the service.
Do have $1000s to waste, no? But as 09 moves along I will have more and more liquidity.
Stories have abounded on message boards here and other places about people who have mortgaged a house or taken on large loans to get into a position in Sirius. As to the truthfullness of this, who knows, but it is definately not a smart thing to do.
Some say it is a bad risk, some say it is a good risk. I say it doesnt matter, as long as you find it a CALCULATED risk, with money that you may never see again. If I were in your position and had some spare cash, I could see putting it into Sirius.
Think of it this way: If you would be willing to go down to the corner store and drop all of that money into Lottery Tickets, then put it into Sirius instead. If not? Then you probably are not willing to loose it all, and should not invest it into Sirius at this time.
no risk no reward -buy some.
Newman,
Did you sell your SIRI shares? Your disclaimer used to say Long SIRI and now says No Position.
I think his analogy is the best; if you've got money you don't need, sure, why not; i mean how many companies are there that show growth, as far as amounts of subscribers year by year, and consistent reduction of the EPS, year after year, which company has a virtual monopoly; and offers one helluva great product, that sell for the price of a tootsie roll per share, other than siri? for those of us who own shares, one must just believe, day after day, that mel will find a way, mel will find a way...
Quote:
Originally Posted by howzzat
He sold to take the tax loss for 2008 and is planning on buying back after the 30 day wash rule is up....
if you have 10k dont load up on sirius xm till they payoff debt as the will have to dillute to do it and stock price will drop..
1. buy AUY GOLD WILL BREAKOUT SOON.. auy is a 7$ stock will hit 10-11 range by april..about 2500 worth
2. buy aapl at 85 about 2500 worth
3. buy dna about 2500 worth
4. then for a long term spec by sirius after they pay off debt at .08-.10 for a 1-2 year investment will be a great story for 09-10:thumbup:
I wish I could buy all over again and I would do it again the only difference is I would have 23800 shares for $2856 vs $14000 I have in it now, and there people who spent much more then that to invested! If you can spare the extra cash GO FOR IT! Lets say you went to vegas for 1 weekend you could spent that with no return, This bet has lasted much longer and I think it has much better chance for a return! Good luck to all longs and may 2009 be our year! And all you bashers GET A LIFE!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Demian
Yeah, what he said! I have not left for good. I have all of the cash sitting in my account waiting for the 30 days to be up. If positive news comes out before then and it starts to spike, I may buy back in before, but Im planning on being back in by the end of January to take advantage of Q4/Year End 2008 conference call which I figure will be second week of Feb.
Enjoy the New Year everyone!!!
If you have money to invest here is how to split it:
Master Card
Apple
Monsanto
JP Morgan
Visa
Raytheon
Costco
Home Depot
iShares Russell 2000 Growth Index
GLD (some Gold)
USO (Some Oil)
SLB (Oil field service company)
XOM (Exxon)
Buy a currency ETF, either the USD, the EURO, the JPY or the British Pound
.
.
.
Keep 50% in a money market with your brokerage account most of the time if you can.
You will not become rich next year but you will not lose all your money either.
And if you have money to gamble then trade any other stocks, options, mutual funds, commodities, bonds, currency, etc...
Oh and NO, right now is not a good time to buy SIRI. Wait until after the next earnings announcement and buy it only if it makes sense.
Actually, I think SiriusOwner is right. Now is NOT the time to buy. That is why I felt comfortable SELLING when I did for the tax purposes. I think February will be a big month for Sat Rad (one way or the other, not exactly sure), but until then, it will be nothing but trash talk and bashing with little or no news. Towards the end of January, I will reevaluate that position once my 30 day wash-sale timer is over. If there has been nothing positive, I may hold off. If it seems like financing is nearing, I will be getting back in.Quote:
Originally Posted by SiriusOwner
That is just MY personal position, and in no way should be construed as investment advice.
Or they announce refinancing before market open on Friday and stock is up 100% at the open. Nobody knows.. and won't know until it happens.
SIRI, right now, is a "Mosh Pit" - people jumping off of the stage and hoping to be caught by the crowd before they hit the ground.
It is a "Bubble-Gum" stock at this point....every teenager in town owns some. It is wild and popular, because it is Cheap!
Even today, on the NASDAQ, it was one of the three most active stocks....even with low volume. It took all day to get back to .12.
But, low and behold...if it gets organized and the boppers get the idea that it is a stock not to short, but instead an investment, then everybody could start to make some money! The problem is that boppers do not think long range.
Right now, the people buying SIRI are "Playing Stock Market" and are not serious about making the stock grow....so screw the shorters and the amateur investors buying this cheap stock!
As far as outlook goes, until the shorters and really big profit takers go (lol), this stock isn't going anywhere.
Next Monday and beyond should tell a story, because as everyone knows, volume will pick up after the holidays..that will give a much better indication of what is to be.
I don't hold my breath....but if you have some Saturday night money to play craps with, then the risk may be worth it, but then again, you don't win every time when you gamble.
As for me, I have put in a sell at .19, which I could change my mind, maybe, and say adios to a company and product that I love. I figure it could possibly take me into my 80's to see a return...I am skeptically optimistic..and I am not sure what I will do...so to you that want to buy in cheap, I have only one word of advice...QUIT SELLING! The selling is killing the stock!
Have a pleasant evening...and may the Lord bless you.
Thanks for taking the time to read this non-technical analysis...
Newman,Quote:
Originally Posted by Newman
Keep in mind that if you decide to buy back in before the 30 day wash rule time is up your losses still go into your cost basis, you just can't write off the loss this year. You still get the tax benefit against any future gains in the stock, as your original cost basis would be factored into the equation...
I understand and respect your decision, but I disagree with you that now is not a good time to buy SIRI. My view is that it is the best time to buy and the worst time to sell.....that is why I have been buying more in the last few days. I plan on even buying more in the next few days. I think that scaling in at these levels is a great entry point if you don't believe the company is going BK - which I don't! Even IF the company was going BK the stock would probably spike before it was announced - remember Worldspace? The stock is trading as if BK was already announced for gosh sakes! I have a strong feeling that .12ish could very well be the bottom from the action I am seeing. SIRI is getting very close to breaking it's downward trendline (look at the chart I posted above) and if it does - watch the momentum shift hard to the upside fast. I would also add that .115 is a 50% retracement from the recent spike awhile back to .23 and technical traders pay attention to stuff like that - notice the buying and support at the .115 level on the chart today. One thing that makes me nervous about not being in the stock is that the financing could be announced at anytime now - and with the way things usually go, the stock will start running long before it is actually announced. With the stock down at this level, that is one spike up I just can't afford to miss...
I have no inside information and I don't know what will happen, but that is my strategy. I am raising cash and buying all I can down at this level. It feels good to more than double my position down at this level...
I understand why you would want to sell for tax reasons though. I already have plenty of losses from other investments this year. Whenever I have made any investment decisions based on taxes in the past - it has ended up hurting me really bad...
Good luck to you Newman... I have been really busy and watching my sisters baby a lot, but maybe we can meet for a couple drinks sometime before I go back to California, if your not to busy working. I will still be down here for awhile yet. Is there anyone else down in the Dallas, Texas area that maybe want to join us?
Happy New Year to everyone...
I just want you guys to know that I really appreciate all of the advice.
I have had some pretty bad experiences with penny stocks getting shorted into oblivion, but those companies never seemed to have the fundamentals (or product line)of SIRI.
As far as BK goes, if they were gonna do it, why not have done it already?
Feel free to correct this if I am wrong, but my thoughts are, if they refi the debt, stock goes up.
If they cave in to Sachs and reissue new convertables at the lower price, the stock will spike.
The only downside I can see is BK and that seems unlikely.
Tell me if I am off base.
Thanks again!:thumbup:
My biggest fear is bankruptcy... and for a while it looked like a very real possibility.. the one thing that makes me think it won't happen is that fact that they are able to pay down the debt with stock. I don't think a debt holder would accept payment with common stock if that stock would be worthless in the near future.... but.. who knows. maybe the debt holder in turn shorts the stock.. who knows. this stock is one comlex animal. lots of things going on that we don't know about. But... February is soon approaching. We will know soon how things are going down.
Damien, I will be out of town until Wednesday, and work the rest of the week. How long are you in town until?
Anywho, I do understand the wash rule thing. Would like to take it on this year's taxes, but if something positive does come out, I will buy back in early, still locking in the loss against future gains as you said. I just do not feel like there will be an announcment on the debt before the last week of January. The 2008 CC should be held around second week of February (My guess would be Feb. 11th or 12th at market Open). If you look back at the last couple of conference calls, there were always SEC filings the week or two before the CC, usually about debt issues. I think you may very well see something announced then.
One thing that I was worried about (as far as being OUT of the stock right now) is an early release of the fact that they exceeded their 19.1 million subscriber estimate. I am looking for closer to 19.25. That could give a nice jolt into earnings and financing, but if they have positive financing news, they may release these numbers closer to the CC, to give a longer run-up in the stock.
It is all speculation, of course.
Newman,
I'm not exactly sure how long I will be in town for - I will know more next week, but probably at least a couple more weeks. We can touch base in a few days and see if we can work out a good time. Was there anyone else on this board in the Dallas, TX area?
Anyway, I like your strategy of keeping your options open and I understand the advantages of taking the tax loss this year....
The timeframe for the subscriber number release and the debt financing announcment are both a mystery...