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After reading the posting: how many shares do you own and at what price? I was tempted to post the following question:
If you had a choice between:
A.- Betting $200 for the chance of making $1000,
or
B.- Betting $200 for the chance of making $500,
Which would you choose ? Why ?
Uhhh... are the odds of winning the same?
Great ! Your question was what I was expecting. See, I think people risk money without the proper thinking and/or analysis. If I can help by posting something like this every now and then, then this will make this forum more insteresting for Sirius investorsQuote:
Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz
Let me give you all some percentages and see what the responses are:
10% chance of making 1000.
50% chance of making 500.
if u believe in sirius, and its at a price where you can buy it without risking a huge amount of money, why would you not buy? I think people overthink everything.
Believing is not enough these days. I am an engineer, I see things in black or white only. Let me give you an example:Quote:
Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos
In the past, oil was found by drilling "wildcats". A wildcat was a cheap oil well drilled in the middle of nowhere hoping to strike oil. It was drilled where people "believed" or "bet" they would find oil.
Do you think we still do that ? We do, just not that often... eventhough wildcaters are cheaper to drill, they are almost none existent these days. We must make sure that 99% of the wells we drill will produce oil, otherwise, the investors, may pull their money from our company. So, do we go for the sure thing or do we gamble ?
SIRI is like a "wildcat". If you can afford to loose then WHY not ?
you are obviously a very smart guy with very good information,what in your reasoning makes sirius a wildcat, its stock price? its debt? i happen to think its a damn good company. can it still be a wildcat and be a good company? is it a good company set to fail in a bad economy?
Thank you.Quote:
Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos
I forgot to mention: wildcaters sometimes found oil and became immensely rich. John D. Rockefeller was one of those, he founded standard oil, what's today Chevron and Exxon. The Rockefeller family still has controlling interests in both companies.
SIRI is like a "wildcat" because is a gamble. It could make you a lot of money, but it could also turn out to be a "dry hole". The big question is: What are the odds ???
SIRI's offerings are good, they have a good product, good service even a sexy image. It is the bad management that has brought the company down to its knees.
I do not think is set too fail but I think it is too damn close. The company has 1 billion in debt, just go figure it out... How the hell will they get a refinance in this economy ? Most likely they will have to use the extra shares they intend to get approved at the shareholders meeting.
I know, I know, the CEO keeps coming out all upbeat and everything but let me ask you, how else do you expect him to come out ? shady, sad, crying ? NO, of course no, CEO's are good actors when they have to.
Anyway, it is you all's money.
Siriusowner: You are correct. It is a risky proposition. Sirius (and XM before the merger) were ALWAYS speculative companies. But just like in life, as long as your bases are secured, it is ok to gamble now and then. Some people just dont know when to say when.
MOST people would not go to Las Vegas with their mortgage payment and gamble it away. Most people save up plenty of money to pay their bills, and if they have a bit left, they go and gamble and have some fun. That is what I equate my involvement to Sirius XM to. I have my bases covered. I have all my bills paid, and I have a separate retirement fund that I contribute to out of every paycheck. Once in a while, I have a bit left over. If there is nothing else I need to do with the money, I may throw some of it into Sirius XM (I dont have time to go to Vegas once a month.;) )
The money that I am investing into Sirius XM is play money. I could go to the movies or buy something that I really don't need, or I can throw it at Sirius XM. If Sirius XM goes up, then it is a huge win for me. If it goes BK, nothing lost that I would not have blown anyways.
FWIW
i'm not anal but it's lose not loose. seen you post it too many times to not bother me.
anyway the answer to your question, i'd go with the greedy a. why you ask? because i've seen it done before, and i've done it myself a few times over the past 6 years i've been investing/trading. 5x your money is very realistic, maybe just not at this very moment.
sirius is a stock the shorts love and the street hates. with everybody so negative on it, imagine how good things will be when they turn a profit and mel flips it? that's my way of thinking. i've been wrong for investing in the since '04, but i've been right on other things, so even though losing the cash i've thrown into SIRI would bother me, 1 i can afford it and 2 i don't give a fukc.
It was killing me no one was answering the question, and I wanted to know the answer, haha.
B would be better, right, over the long run? I dunno if I calculated it right, but you'd lose 100 dollars with the odds of choice A compared to gaining 50 dollars with choice B. Am I wrong, or what?
Right. B is the correct answer. Even for gambling.Quote:
Originally Posted by HD303
Siriusowner, what do you think the odds of Sirius XM going bankrupt are?
I assume you want the short answer:Quote:
Originally Posted by HD303
In mathematics, a probability of an event A is represented by a real number in the range from 0 to 1 and written as P(A). An impossible event has a probability of 0, and a certain event has a probability of 1.
Therefore, the odds of SIRI going BK is 1(2), 1 in 2 or 1/2.
Thanks.
Where'd you get the 1 and the 2?
Sorry, but I don't understand.
Edit: Okay, I think I see what you're saying. So do Google, Microsoft, and Berkshire Hathaway each have the same odds as Sirius XM of going bankrupt?
Quote:
Originally Posted by HD303
I gave you the short answer. All the companies have the same odds if you use the most common type of probability.
There is another type you can use where you can assign a value to each "statement". It is called Bayesian probability - I am not going to explain the method here. Buy a good book a statistics and probability if you want the method explained.
For these cases where you have different issues, this approach will yield the best answer: There's at least 75% chance that Sirius goes bankrupt using this method.
Of course the gurus in this Forum will argue that that is not going to happen and I agree, there's 25% chance it may not. This is why it is called probability...And the odds are defenitely against the company.
Ok, you cannot throw out a statement like "There's at least 75% chance that Sirius goes bankrupt using this method." and not explain your reasoning behind it.
At least when I said 20% chance of BK, I made the disclaimer that it was a guess with no science behind it... Care to explain?