SIRI closed at 20 cents today......your thoughts?
I'm disgusted...
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SIRI closed at 20 cents today......your thoughts?
I'm disgusted...
At this point, this stock is not going to go anywhere (or at least not up) until there is a refinancing deal in place. What scares me is that with the stock price continuing to plummet, you'd think a deal would have been done if it were possible. I am now getting worried that SIRI can't get a loan. I hope I'm wrong. :scared:Quote:
Originally Posted by Demian
If one or more institutions want to make a quick boatload of money, it's a no brainer - load up on the stock and then finance SIRI's debt.....Quote:
Originally Posted by xitvp
I'm still holding hope that those 3 recent debt for stock exchanges were part of a bigger deal, but I could be wrong about that. Why would Mel be trading stock for debt down at these levels and several months early - unless it was part of a bigger deal? It seems pretty obvious to me that they will have enough cash on hand to pay off the remaining 210 million when it comes due in Feb. '09. Mel has said that he wanted to finance it sooner rather than later to take that question mark out of the equation and I still think that is his plan......
I too am getting a bit more than worried - it seems to me that if Mel had ANY good news he would be putting it out. This low stock price can't be good for anything to do with sirius.
On top of the obvious roadblocks to Sirius XM of debt refincing, we now have in our face the potential bankruptcy of the auto industry. There is doubt that the government is going to do anything to stop this downward spiral in the auto industry. So, as Sirius' fate is so tied to the fate of the auto industry, that would seem to be yet another factor making Sirius' future seem so up in the air - both as to auto installs, but the possible great increase in the U.S. unemployment rate. We all keep waiting for the other shoe to drop, only to find out that there are still so many other shoes dropping from the back of the closet, shoes we never suspected we had!!!!
Ain't it the truth !!!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveSirius
whats the odds that....when the stock hits 10 cents, SIRIUS can buy back all outstanding shares. That is when the short squeeze will begin in earnest.
How about the (SEC) Sleeping Exchange Commission. Those bastards are also helping the stock spiral into a nose dive.
all this mess cause the wallstreet whores(JPM,GS,LEH etc.) dreampt up credit default swaps. LOL and our fine government let them do it. OMG crooks all around us.
Another motley fool butthole bashing…
http://www.fool.com/investing/value/...is-at-023.aspx
The Senate hearings are just a whole lot of covering themselves puff. They had to look tough so they look like they are really doing something smart and in the best interest in the taxpayer. Trust me, the fall out from the big 3 going BK would be so huge, think about it. Vendors all around the world would get axed. Any payable from the automaker to the vendor, well, bye bye. So, more BK vendors, laying off thousands of workers. See, the auto companies can continue to make cars but they don't have any money to pay the bills let alone whos going to ship parts to them for free? Now, autodealers are another issue. Talk about ghost automalls across America. The commercial real estate market would also take a hit, lots of square footage in plants, etc. How about the impact to the States that lose sales tax from the sale of the vehicle? I could go on with this but no need to feel any sicker, right?
So, let the automakers down now, tag another year on to the recession. Come on lawmakers, give us some reason to buy the cars in the first place. Get us the financing, make it tax deductible (like it was once), provide some gov. incentives to buy the car, not just on the Prius, all cars, even gas guzzlers too.
Heavy selling. Once again, the environment is becoming increasingly difficult & bearish. The perception from the street is not good, sadly, it is in sync with Sirius reality.Quote:
Originally Posted by Demian
Supports have been broken and there is nothing to stop the stock from going down to $0.00
Do not add to the position, even if you wish to average down. We have a high probability of BK (I'd say 80%).
No chance of BK anytime soon. They couldn't go BK even if they wanted to. Next debt hurdle is not until Feb. '09 - and they have already paid a 3rd of that. S2 held today.......Quote:
Originally Posted by Siriusowner
Nothing to stop the stock from going to $0.00?
Please........
1.- I did not give you a time frame for BK. I just gave you a %.Quote:
Originally Posted by Demian
2.- Do you adjust your supports and resistances daily ? Are you day trading ? Major support was the year low and it was broken today.
3.- Please what ? What is stopping the stock from going to $0.00 ? The company fundamentals ? Please.....
The truth of the fact is that loving a company does not make its stock a good investment.
News will come out in the next few days that they are continuing to sell boatloads of shares to cut down the Feb debt. They need about 650M by April for the Feb + May debt. At 20 cents, they need to sell 3 billion shares without going into cash. They asked the shares to be almost doubled to 8.5 billion, so they will continue to sell shares for debt because nobody will likely give them a term-loan in this atmosphere.Quote:
Originally Posted by Siriusowner
Hate to say it, but it's the only way to stave off bankruptcy. Even with a miracle term loan, big trouble is looming with car sales & loans & we could end up being in the 8 million cars sold range in 2009. Sirius will have a hard time increasing revenue next year at this level and being cash flow positive.
I feel this stock is headed for 10 cents and a at least 7.5 billion shares and then a 1:50 reverse split.
Incredible product though - what a shame what the FCC did, how Hartlieb helped with the delay and what a perfect storm hitting right now in the US and the world. We're close to depression people, so I would not add any more because you are jus pissing away your $.
And believe me, I want to load up big under 20 cents, but playing super lotto might be easier to hit or less risky. At least Lotto is just $1. I would want to buy 100k shares or more, but ZERO confidence because of my feelings above.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sxminvestor
Right on the money:
Morningstar Valuation -
We've lowered our fair value estimate for the combined company to $0.20 from $0.50 after accounting for the company's limited refinancing options for more than $1 billion in debt coming due in 2009. Given the restrictive conditions in the credit markets, we think there exists a 75% chance that Sirius XM will be unable to successfully refinance part or all of its debt coming due. Should this occur, we think the company would turn to the equity markets, resulting in substantial incremental dilution to existing shareholders, and a fair value estimate of $0. If the company is somehow able to navigate its current financial situation, to which we assign a 25% likelihood, we think the shares could be worth $1. Our estimate does not account for the effects of a possible reverse split. Our discounted cash-flow model assumes that Sirius will achieve about 11% average annual revenue growth during the next 10 years. Our fair value estimate and sales projections are predicated on total satellite subscribers reaching 40 million in 2017, up from 18 million today. The majority of the cash flows that form the basis of our valuation occur more than 10 years into the future. Our fair value uncertainty rating is very high, given the firm's unproven business model and substantial debt burden.
Fair Value: .20
Consider buying: .10
Consider selling: .50
Stock is not an investment candidate. Consider for speculation only.
Do you have a link for that?Quote:
Originally Posted by Siriusowner
I have the 9 page report but it is 279 kb which exceeds the forum limit.Quote:
Originally Posted by Demian
Morningstar is offering a trial until 11/21, you will have to register:
http://quicktake.morningstar.com/Sto...SA&Symbol=SIRI
I didn't know that.............are you sure?:rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by Siriusowner
The fact of the matter remains that a company has to exhaust all sources of financing in order to delare bankruptcy. That means exhausting their cash supply. This means that there is no way for the comapny to claim BK until after february.
My honest feeling is that if Mel were to come out tommorrow and say that Sirius will use cash on hand to pay off the February debt without further dilution, the share price would jump, possibly 50%. That would take us to about 0.31 per share, which would give us a market cap of over 1 billion, and then they could draw the 100 million dollar line of credit with loral and give them opperating money for the first half of 2009. This again would show that the company is solvent, for at least a little while, bringing share prices back up. If the company had to further dilute, at least the share price would be higher and they would not have to dilute as much.
Here is to hoping... :cheers: