SIRI IntraWEEK Thread 08-03-09

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Originally Posted by imromo24

ive been watching this too long to think that its going over $1 before we get the delisting notice for being under $1, which is going to take us right back down, even if for just a day.

We won't go over $1 until November, until after the 3Q CC.

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Would surprise EBITDA guidance on Thursday change your opinion?

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Originally Posted by SD-08

We had a low of .39 on 5/4 to a high of .55 only 3 days later on the 7th with 3 days of volume over 350 mil. That seemed much more dramatic than this.

Also, less than 2 months prior to that we were in the teens......very dramatic move in 60 days...........

NOW, things are CLEARLY better for SIRI and we're having trouble reaching the pre cc highs that we hit last time????????

Something is different

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a while back there was a pattern that developed where it opened over the close and closed below the open. Then throughout the day you could sell at 11am and buy back at the end of the day. This pattern went on 3 times before we caught on. At first it was many % but each time it got tighter until it broke out...this pattern is going to repeat for the 3Q CC, except that is going to be the breakout of the pattern.

I am pretty new to this site but today is driving me crazy! I sold my 18,000 shares the other day on advise from "Professional" traders and I am going nuts today. I have seen a lot of ups and downs the past few months and I did make a profit but I really liked the potential of this stock and now I do not know what to do. I have always been taught to buy and hold because I would loose my shirt chasing stocks. My wife did not want to sell the stock but we listened to the advise anyway. Is there others that are waiting for a pullback and what level do you think it may pull back to?

thanks,
Ted

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Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill

Would surprise EBITDA guidance on Thursday change your opinion?

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Personally i think the EBIDTA is wearing on people and thats not going to be enough to make a difference, plus its been said here that EBIDTA isn't a good metric anyway.

I did think there could be a surprise but its too obvious now that it won't be enough, yes, things are "getting" better, as of last week, but 2Q probably will rank as one of the worst yet. Remember 2Q ended over a month ago, they aren't going to give numbers from last week, they cover April, May and June which were not good months.

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Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill

don't hold your breath waiting . . you might be cutting the pie too fine this time . . but good luck.

p.s. is your mint chocolate chip green or white?

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I am not, to be honets I would be happy if it just kept going up. I really would like to just sell lots and not get back in. I am going to try and not make the same mistake of getting back in this pisser after making a boat load, then only to through more then I originally had into it then I started with.

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Originally Posted by TnTmadness

I am pretty new to this site but today is driving me crazy! I sold my 18,000 shares the other day on advise from "Professional" traders and I am going nuts today. I have seen a lot of ups and downs the past few months and I did make a profit but I really liked the potential of this stock and now I do not know what to do. I have always been taught to buy and hold because I would loose my shirt chasing stocks. My wife did not want to sell the stock but we listened to the advise anyway. Is there others that are waiting for a pullback and what level do you think it may pull back to?

thanks,
Ted

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whatever charles, nice try

Who is Charles?

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Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz

If who had Sirius XM ads?



Have SiriusXM where? What does that article have to do with Sirius XM advertising anywhere?

The article is about Clear Channels ad division selling advertising for Pandora.

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Clear channel.




Just picking on your Pandora being true competition to SIRIXN point of view.

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Originally Posted by TnTmadness

Who is Charles?

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sorry, jk, we pick on charles for making fake aliases and posting funny questions....welcome to the club thats your initiation.


Im planning to buy back on thursday at .44, within a couple weeks at .44 or if things are looking downward maybe see how long i can hold out. .42 is a real possibility.

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Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill

you are going to be pissed

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The thing is I hope I am pissed. It means that SIRIXM PPS is going up.



P.S. I know this may not make any sense unless you live in my world of SIRIXM, but the fact is I will be happy as long as it doesn't go bankrupt. I have so many lots at so many different Price points it is embarrassing I got this sucked into it.

Up Up and away up .07 before the close what will tommorow bring??? To be honest with you just enjoy today cause i think the stock may go back down into the 40's tommorow and hang there for awhile!!! True the car sales are getting better but that happened before the 2nd quarters earnings come out so i expect subs to be down BUT i expect cash flow to be positive!!!

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Originally Posted by TnTmadness

I am pretty new to this site but today is driving me crazy! I sold my 18,000 shares the other day on advise from "Professional" traders and I am going nuts today. I have seen a lot of ups and downs the past few months and I did make a profit but I really liked the potential of this stock and now I do not know what to do. I have always been taught to buy and hold because I would loose my shirt chasing stocks. My wife did not want to sell the stock but we listened to the advise anyway. Is there others that are waiting for a pullback and what level do you think it may pull back to?

thanks,
Ted

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I say buy today! I have been buying each day. Just 5000 shares at a time. But, it's a great way to average your way to the top. This is a good company with a good product. It's not really a penny stock, so investing for the long haul is a good idea. You can make profit along the way by selling on the dips, and I do that a lot. But, eventually this stock should be back up to the 4 or 5 dollar range.
But, since I'm a candlemaker, I have wax in my brains, and so there really isn't a good reason to listen to a word I say....:rolleyes:

If you think it is going to go down that fast would it make sense to short sell the stock? I have not done a short sell before but I know a lot of people use the tool. My account is not set up for this but it would make sense to do this because this seems like it has gone up to fast. It does not feel right to me. (Maybe it is because I am pissed).

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Originally Posted by TnTmadness

If you think it is going to go down that fast would it make sense to short sell the stock? I have not done a short sell before but I know a lot of people use the tool. My account is not set up for this but it would make sense to do this because this seems like it has gone up to fast. It does not feel right to me. (Maybe it is because I am pissed).

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thanks for the reminder, yes, many will be shorting it because of the runup, checks and balances, yin and yang

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Originally Posted by imromo24

Personally i think the EBIDTA is wearing on people and thats not going to be enough to make a difference, plus its been said here that EBIDTA isn't a good metric anyway.

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Those who disregard EBITDA are not fitting the other puzzle pieces together . . it is not a standalone metric;

EBITDA may be instructive, though not controlling, relative to its correlation to GAAP profit

If the Company guides-up to $400mm EBITDA on Thursday . . the correlation to potential full-year GAAP profit can no longer be ignored; the analysts sitting at $0.75-$1.00 targets have already factored it in . .

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Originally Posted by SD-08

We had a low of .39 on 5/4 to a high of .55 only 3 days later on the 7th with 3 days of volume over 350 mil. That seemed much more dramatic than this.

Also, less than 2 months prior to that we were in the teens......very dramatic move in 60 days...........

NOW, things are CLEARLY better for SIRI and we're having trouble reaching the pre cc highs that we hit last time????????

Something is different

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the pre CC high was the day before the call, and it hit .53, we hit .54 and cleared it easily 2 days before the call. If you see a gap up in the morning I suspect it will, then we should see a few cents higher tomorrow than todays close.

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Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill

Those who disregard EBITDA are not fitting the other puzzle pieces together . . it is not a standalone metric;

EBITDA may be instructive, though not controlling, relative to its correlation to GAAP profit

If the Company guides-up to $400mm EBITDA on Thursday . . the correlation to potential full-year GAAP profit can no longer be ignored; the analysts sitting at $0.75-$1.00 targets have already factored it in . .

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i guess i expect that they will guide up on it, however, the lost subs and this one time charge for the debt giving us negative earnings for the Q will override.

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Originally Posted by john

Clear channel.

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What does that article have to do with SiriusXM ads being on Clear Channel? I am severely missing your point.

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Originally Posted by john

Just picking on your Pandora being true competition to SIRIXN point of view.

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Which is fine but, I am not following you... I don't how any of this relates to the article I posted. The article was about how Pandora is growing so quickly that they have to outsource their ad sales and Clear Channel (terrestrial radio) stepped in to supplement their ad sales force.

After hours i already down .0048 could that mean something??? I hope not i do agree this company has the potential for the future but losing subs does not help so i say tomorow when looking at this stock be very careful of what u wish for!!!

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Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz

What does that article have to do with SiriusXM ads being on Clear Channel? I am severely missing your point.



Which is fine but, I am not following you... I don't how any of this relates to the article I posted. The article was about how Pandora is growing so quickly that they have to outsource their ad sales and Clear Channel (terrestrial radio) stepped in to supplement their ad sales force.

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Charles it was to mess with you but just forget it.