SIRI Intraday Thread: Thursday, March 26th

Hi, Well I am using my new TDA account that has a lot more bells and whistles compared to ING. A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing. At ING I could only place limit orders to whole cent. At TDA I can go out 4 places.
This morning I decided to buy HAYZ. It had moved up to .21 in premarket.
My plan as always is to wait for sell off and then buy. However rather then simply place a market order I got tricky. I ordered buy at .1901 but by the time my order was placed SP was .1910
I kept adjusting up and SP kept staying .002 or so over me. Finally I just went market and paid .23
SP has been stalled between .21 and .22 all day.
Moral of story don't quibble over a few fractions if the current price is acceptable.

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Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM

put directly towards Social secutrity fund....

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doubt they would do that just like they won't pay back medicare because they are planning on nationalizing healthcare.....they will just buy more junk, and create more pointless agencies pull more civilians under the umbrella of government

Not sure about the accounting of all this..but....I don't think banks can write down performing loans (loans that are not in default). The property value isn't determined until it is sold once again. Or, in a sense if it is appraised due to refi or foreclosure. But, if the loan is performing, there is no reason for the bank to assume the asset has declined or increased in value. But, I'm no banker (thank God!), nor accountant (double thank God!), but I think most of this mess is due to the repackaging of mortgages into large portfolios which were purchased by the huge merchant banks and investment houses and have become worthless because so many of those repackaged subprime notes are NON-performing loans. So, even though 95% of mortgages are performing, a huge percent of those are NOT subprime. Whereas the 5% of repackaged mortgages are mostly, if not all, subprime. They were attractive investments because of their potential high interest rate yields. But, since most of the people who "bought" houses with subprime loans didn't pay their monthly payments, especially as the ARMs adjusted up, the subprime packages of mortgages became worthless or near worthless.

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Originally Posted by Newman

Relmor, I dont understand you. First you say this:


But then you say this:

You say they are writing down because they are projecting forward, yet you say they are not writing down and huge losses are still ahead? That is crap. They are ALREADY writing down CURRENT values of houses and loans, even ones that are being paid in a timely manner.

Now lets go with your analogy:


No, that is not the same thing AT ALL because you are not being paid on the original value of the house like the banks are. Yes, you are right that there is a 100k PAPER loss, but you still owe the bank 200k, or did they also adjust your loan so that you only have to pay 100k back? Of course not. So that 100k in value they have in your loan, they will get paid back 200k if you make all of your payments, PLUS interest. So they have written your loan down by 100k, but will still get paid 200k plus.

And YES, about 95% of people will pay off their loans. Default and Repossession rate is just about in line with the unemployment rate, right around 5%. Don't let the media get to you. Pay attention to the numbers and you can see through most of the crap.

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Originally Posted by Brandon Matthews

I'm getting ready to call another breakout....damn this thing is in a tight range. Draw a line for the uptrend on the daily chart. Then draw another line on the downslope. They meet at .3671. It's running out of room. Up or down, its going to have to decide soon. My moneys on up.

ZERO Barrier will be hit at 2 pm. (for all armageddon fans. thats where and when the apex meets.)

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Yoda quote for the day:

“Size matters not (institutional investors). Look at me. Judge me by my size, do you? Hmm? Hmm. And well you should not. For my ally is the Force, and a powerful ally it is (volume is dropping, .36 is dwindling). Life creates it, makes it grow (SIRI). Its energy surrounds us and binds us. Luminous beings are we (the mighty blue dog), not this crude matter. You must feel the Force around you; here, between you, me, the tree, the rock, everywhere, yes. Even between the land and the ship.”

Breakout is coming.... patience young padawans....

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Originally Posted by mogami

Hi, Well I am using my new TDA account that has a lot more bells and whistles compared to ING. A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing. At ING I could only place limit orders to whole cent. At TDA I can go out 4 places.
This morning I decided to buy HAYZ. It had moved up to .21 in premarket.
My plan as always is to wait for sell off and then buy. However rather then simply place a market order I got tricky. I ordered buy at .1901 but by the time my order was placed SP was .1910
I kept adjusting up and SP kept staying .002 or so over me. Finally I just went market and paid .23
SP has been stalled between .21 and .22 all day.
Moral of story don't quibble over a few fractions if the current price is acceptable.

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Welcome to the power of the 4 decimal trade.... powerful it is...

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Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM

Yes Burnt toast,that is why i favor buying the loans with taxpayer money and holding until housing prices rise and economy improves and then we can refinace these people out of the loans with stricter underwriting standards and the treasury(taxpayers) can make a nice profit to put directly towards Social secutrity fund...Buffet said in august if he had the money he would do this himself...

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You are correct, Newman is correct. The investors holding the paper at the end of the day wins. That is why there was a easy way to take care of this whole mess without having massive bailouts. Just change the mark to market rules that were put into place after and because of ENRON. Then put the up tic rule back in. and a few other things and there would have been no need for the bailouts on the scale that they were.




P.S. because the government is the one holding much of this paper through owning much of the companies that now hold them is the only way we may not have the inflation that is coming. The problem is there is a cost to it NOW (because of the way the government did it using loans first instead of changing the rules back first), we become more like France.

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Originally Posted by benchwarmer

Unfortunately I succumbed to what after many years of reflection believe was an addiction, not only to the action of watching the stock daily but also the dreams of someday making it rich. I remember sadly now when the stock broke $9.00. For one brief moment I actually thought of booking my tidy profits and calling it a victory. my mistakes.

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Hi, Welcome, thanks for sharing. (It's like SIRI anonymous) Always collect your profits. The market is not PFM if you pay attention you can tell when a stock is going to go down. Sell and wait for it to reverse and re-buy (you'll increase your position)
I'm sure you know this. The point is know when to say enough (either up or down)
endeavor to persevere.

look at the volume drop... it's like the calm before the storm....

Excellent post and if you take into consideration the possibility of a 10% or even 12% unemployment rate, combined with rising default in all kind of loans and credit card debt, you can kiss a few more banks good bye.
And one more thing, what about commercial real estate ? Isn't this the next shoe to drop ?

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Originally Posted by underway

Not sure about the accounting of all this..but....I don't think banks can write down performing loans (loans that are not in default). The property value isn't determined until it is sold once again. Or, in a sense if it is appraised due to refi or foreclosure. But, if the loan is performing, there is no reason for the bank to assume the asset has declined or increased in value. But, I'm no banker (thank God!), nor accountant (double thank God!), but I think most of this mess is due to the repackaging of mortgages into large portfolios which were purchased by the huge merchant banks and investment houses and have become worthless because so many of those repackaged subprime notes are NON-performing loans. So, even though 95% of mortgages are performing, a huge percent of those are NOT subprime. Whereas the 5% of repackaged mortgages are mostly, if not all, subprime. They were attractive investments because of their potential high interest rate yields. But, since most of the people who "bought" houses with subprime loans didn't pay their monthly payments, especially as the ARMs adjusted up, the subprime packages of mortgages became worthless or near worthless.

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Originally Posted by mogami

Hi, Welcome, thanks for sharing. (It's like SIRI anonymous) Always collect your profits. The market is not PFM if you pay attention you can tell when a stock is going to go down. Sell and wait for it to reverse and re-buy (you'll increase your position)
I'm sure you know this. The point is know when to say enough (either up or down)
endeavor to persevere.

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Depends on what you ultimately are shooting for. Certainly the right strategy if you are not looking for homeruns, but are looking to string together singles and doubles. I love sports analogies!
In my case, I have a lot of SIRI shares, over 250,000 of those 'little' suckers, bought on the cheap a few weeks back. For me, I want to ride this out and see if it'll really fly. Don't want to sell and then re-purchase over and over because of the obvious....will reduce the total amount of shares as they hopefully get more expensive. I hope to keep as much of that original amount as I can in hopes of the grand slam. Long odds, but worth it because I got in cheap....not a ton of $ at risk. Could change my mind, but for now, holding pat and optimistic.

Good Afternoon all, Have I missed anything?

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Originally Posted by underway

Depends on what you ultimately are shooting for. Certainly the right strategy if you are not looking for homeruns, but are looking to string together singles and doubles. I love sports analogies!
In my case, I have a lot of SIRI shares, over 250,000 of those 'little' suckers, bought on the cheap a few weeks back. For me, I want to ride this out and see if it'll really fly. Don't want to sell and then re-purchase over and over because of the obvious....will reduce the total amount of shares as they hopefully get more expensive. I hope to keep as much of that original amount as I can in hopes of the grand slam. Long odds, but worth it because I got in cheap....not a ton of $ at risk. Could change my mind, but for now, holding pat and optimistic.

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Hi, Never forget shares of stock are simply the chips they give at the Wall Street Casinos. Don't enter with anything you can't leave inside

So exilejeff...did you go to Tulane?

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Originally Posted by relmor2003

Banks are projecting forward that personal loans, car loans, and credit card loans WILL BE paid back at 100 cents on the dollar. They are writing down mortgage debt. They project forward the mortgage debt as being overvalued, hence they are writing down those loans, not any others. Were we differ is you think that the other loans are correctly valued. There is were I disagree. Yes, I know I still owe the bank 100k. I was trying to make an anaolgy to show how a person who do what the banks are doing. The banks arent writing down mortgage loan value because the price dropped by a "appraiser, or similar houses sold), they are assuming those loans wont be paid back AT ALL. Or not to fruition, and will default in the near future. So they tried to sell them. Found no buyers except for pennies on the dollar, so banks around a year ago were able to unload some of these mortgage backed secrutiies for around 40 cents on the dollar. This pissed off every bank in the world. You saw more writedowns after that happened. What could this bank sell a personal loan for? Or a car loan? Or credit card debt? Not at 100 cents, or .98. Most of these loans are still valued actually above 95%. They would probably get .60 cents on the open market for this debt right now. My guess. Maybe higher.

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Securitized debt i.e. mortgage backed securities and other loan backed securities are not projected ... they're marked to market - valued at the last market sale price. Since there's no liquidity in these markets (no buyers) the value is unrealistically low.

Hurrah it's beer thirty here. "todays stupor is brought to you by Becks Beer, the makers of Becks beer remind you to drink responsibly"

"Caution: you should not operate machinery, drive a car, perform brain surgery or make trades on Wall Street while under the influence of Becks"

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Originally Posted by mogami

Hi, Never forget shares of stock are simply the chips they give at the Wall Street Casinos. Don't enter with anything you can't leave inside

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Exactly! Like I said, I got in CHEAP. So, my max exposure is pretty low. That's the beauty of this one. I don't trade stock for a living, so it's a tolerable investment risk for me. If I were to lose it all, I would only have to sell one or two of my 5 kids! LOL!

Found your post to be very inspiring. I'm new to the stock market, only started this last December. I too am a fan of XM (I subscribed because of the MLB package) and was and still am convinced that this is a great product. For someone who really never even looked at the stock market, one day I saw the share price on SIRI when flipping through CNBC and couldn't believe how cheap it was. That got me to start looking into investing. So, SIRI is what brought me in and SIRI is pretty much what I have most of my interest in to date.

I found your post most interesting because I am an ex-sports gambling addict. I've since worked through most of those issues and never did go cold-turkey with GA and all that. I still "want" to live a lifestyle that includes being able to play a round of golf with a $20 on the line. I was able to reel myself back in and feel I am pretty much in control, dare I say, of this "addiction" now. I've often wondered in the past months though if I'm allowing the market, and SIRI in particular, to lure me back into this addictive state. I know I spend way too much time at work and home following this drama. I think it's great that you bring to light the ease by which a person can get drawn into something like this in hopes of striking it rich. Now granted, if all goes well, maybe we can all be rich from this stock some day.....but I think it takes a wise person to be able to step back and see the big picture and make sure SIRI doesn't consume our way of life. Just want to make sure eveyone involved takes the time to ask themselves this from time to time and make sure to put your life and your family first before letting the market control everything in our world. Very good points Benchwarmer. I'm truly sorry to hear of your plight but glad to know you are on your feet and moving forward.

I, for one, bought a house in Orange County, CA 2 years ago, got married the next year after a 6-year relationship, then had the %*&# run off with someone else 6 mo. later. Still digging out through divorce and trying to salvage a house that is worth $300k less than I owe. I'm in the midst of trying to short sell the house to myself in a way (called a short-refi), if I can get HSBC to accept it. Been dealing with it for nearly a year now trying everything under the sun to save my house and my credit but am finally getting close. I actually am in limbo right now with my SIRI stock. I have made enough in the last month from SIRI to pay off all other debt from credit cards, etc. It looks like I will need to do this just to qualify for a new loan from a new lender. Thus, right now I'm watching all of your comments and tyring to know when to pull the sell trigger. Could sure use .50 first! I'd love to stay long on this baby until it gets up in the several dollar range....I think it is a long-term huge winner, but my hand is going to be forced by my housing issue. Anyway, lots of side stories in there, but what I'm getting at is........thank you guys on this board for providing great opinions and insight. I didn't know what I was doing.....probably would have dumped what little I had on the BK rumors. But, you pulled me through and have at least positioned me for some much needed gains that can help turn around and solve many other pressing issues in my personal life. Now if I can just avoid SIRI making me an addict again!!!!

Sorry for the novel.....just thought Benchwarmer's post was a good time to tell a personal story. You guys are GREAT!!! Best of luck to all of us and keep up the good work ;)

With 2 minutes to go until zero barrier, I'm looking for a sharp decline to 36 that will last just seconds followed by an immediate spike up to at least .38. Could be interesting...

choirgirl: 10 or 12% unemployment? You must think the worst is yet to come... we are barely at around 5% now. You expect to double that rate (and then some) over the next few months?

Turn off the news. It will be ok. Think happy thoughts...

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Originally Posted by Newman

choirgirl: 10 or 12% unemployment? You must think the worst is yet to come... we are barely at around 5% now. You expect to double that rate (and then some) over the next few months?

Turn off the news. It will be ok. Think happy thoughts...

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Hi, I think nationally we are over 8 percent. Ohio and Michigan are near 10 percent. But we've been here before without spending a trillion dollars.