brandon why dont u wait till the 17th to write an article, when we have some real news. I think that would make more sense than just throwing out another speculative piece. We got enough of those out there right now.
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brandon why dont u wait till the 17th to write an article, when we have some real news. I think that would make more sense than just throwing out another speculative piece. We got enough of those out there right now.
I agree with Homer on this:Quote:
Originally Posted by Brandon Matthews
-The overall churn from 19.5 million subs would be about 5.1 million for the year with an all-in-churn of 2.2 %
- Using 9.1 million with a penetration rate of 55% (Sirius claiming 60% possible in 2009) = 5 million new subs.
- Let's say on the low side they add 300,000 subs per quarter at retail, that is 1.2 million retail adds.
19.1 start of 2009 +5 million OEM + 1.2 Milion Retail - 5.1 Million All-In Churn = 20.2 by the end of 2009.
You cannot take the OEM take rate and then reduce by another 50% when this is already in the All-in-Churn #'s Sirius has been reporting for many quarters. Also, with the Howard Stern effect faded, you also do not have all the XM subs quitting and going to Sirius. In addition, the service has alot more offerings and better price points to keep subs with lower affordabilty. I do not believe that churn will get any worse than it has been in the past or at least the things I mentioned will negate the poor economic conditions that may have some quit the service. And then we have the IPOD app that is coming, which could change everything.
Brandon -
you need to think twice before you publish something that may be way, way off base. I think you have your facts screwed up and you seem to always bounce from one extreme to the other with bold statements that are not always backed up with all the most accurate facts. I think your off big on this one and you need to review where you are getting your numbers !
I believe in this forum, a basic question is worse than a stupid question....and I am about to ask one!!!! Besides online stores, most sub sales are done through Walmart, Best buy, Circuit City (well, maybe not CC:o anymore), RadioShack, Crutchfield.....Well, you guys and gals get it. I believe that not one of these stores that I have mentioned had great last quarter sales.
Ok, so here's the basic question," What impact do these stores have on the addition or subtraction of subs?" Please do not make me stand in the corner for this question and I refuse to meet ANYONE outside in the parking lot after school!!!:p
Good morning boys, LMaze has found you all! I am enjoying the site and all the postings. Its going to take me a little time to get caught up with all of you, and to get caught up again with all things Sirius so I beg your indulgence.
In the meantime best wishes to you all, and have a good day, will try to check in later.
The amount of Sirius sales from any of the stores you stated would only be a fraction of the stores income. If Sirius sales pushed any of those store into positive numbers SP would be a lot more than it is right now.
BTW...for that question you get a swirlee..report to to toilets on the first floor...
:scared:
Quote:
Originally Posted by edeyoung99
Good Morning All,
First let me say that I am sorry for losing it yesterday...but one can only take so much bad news at a time. Especially after seeing those whose opinions I respect post to the negative in a way I was not prepared to see. After a long night of review and feeling sick to my stomach again about this stock.....I am still full of questions. Let's take a look at the form 8 filed on 17 Feb. In particular the following section:
http://investor.sirius.com/sec.cfm
The loans under the Sirius Credit Agreement bear interest at a rate of 15% per annum. Commencing on March 31, 2010, the loans amortize in quarterly installments equal to: (i) 0.25% of the aggregate principal amount of the loans outstanding on January 1, 2010 and (ii) after December 31, 2011, 25% of the aggregate principal amount of the loans outstanding on January 1, 2012. The loan matures on December 20, 2012. We paid Liberty Media Corporation a structuring fee of $30 million in connection with the Sirius Credit Agreement. In addition, we will pay a commitment fee of 2.0% per annum on the unused portion of the purchase money loan facility. If, prior to December 31, 2009, we elect to terminate the Investment Agreement (as defined below), the lenders under the Sirius Credit Agreement may require prompt repayment at 105% of face amount. The loans under the Sirius Credit Agreement are guaranteed by Sirius Asset Management Company LLC and Satellite CD Radio, Inc., our wholly owned subsidiaries. The loans are secured by a lien on substantially all of our assets. The affirmative covenants, negative covenants and event of default provisions in the Sirius Credit Agreement are substantially similar to those in the Term Credit Agreement, dated as of June 20, 2007, among us, the lenders party thereto and Morgan Stanley Senior Funding, Inc., as administrative agent and collateral agent.
then this:
http://investor.sirius.com/secfiling...930413-07-5508
The loan is guaranteed by our wholly owned subsidiary, Satellite CD Radio, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Guarantor”). The Credit Agreement is secured by a lien on substantially all of our and the Guarantor’s assets, including our four satellites and the shares of the Guarantor.
The Credit Agreement contains customary affirmative covenants and event of default provisions. The negative covenants contained in the Credit Agreement are substantially similar to those contained in the indenture governing our 9 5/8% Senior Notes due 2013.
The foregoing description of the Credit Agreement does not purport to be complete and is qualified in its entirety by reference to the Credit Agreement, which is filed as Exhibit 10.1 hereto, and is incorporated herein by reference.
Item 2.03 Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant
The information set forth above under Item 1.01 is hereby incorporated by reference into this Item 2.03.
Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
(d) Exhibits.
Exhibit No. Description
10.1 Term Credit Agreement, dated as of June 20, 2007, among Sirius Satellite Radio Inc., the lenders party thereto, and Morgan Stanley Senior Funding, Inc., as Administrative Agent and Collateral Agent.
more:
The Senior Notes were sold to J.P. Morgan Securities Inc., Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated and UBS Securities LLC, as initial purchasers. The Senior Notes, offered to certain non-U.S. persons pursuant to Regulation S under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), and to qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act at a purchase price equal to 89.93% of their principal amount, are senior obligations of XM Satellite Radio Inc. (“XM Inc.”) and rank equally in right of payment with its existing and future senior debt.
Still trying to sort this wholetale out....and it is getting interesting. I am going to back off for a bit this AM as I can't seem to focus on all that verbage.
Good morning all. Just read the entire thread all 160ish posts, good info and a classy debate. I am truly clueless as to why the MSM has not jumped all over this. I feel Mel has to have an ace up his sleeve and Malone would not be on board if the 4th qtr was terrrible. If this ship sinks Mel will be in court for years to come.
Level 2 info would be much appreciated. I unloaded some shares yesterday and I am looking to pounce on a dip and sell on pop. Anyone else making moves today? We are down 5% pre-market, I hope for some volume and volatility today. Good luck all.
Long siri, but not afraid to unload all but 100 of my shares
Todays level II: about twice the volume of yesterday @188K with an average price of 0.133. The s&p looks to open about -17 on open.
so far today the bids and ask apear random enough in time and amount not to be orchistrated... YET. :)
Hey whats up Brady? Hope all is well. Lets make some moves today baby. Could we see a .12 handle early on? How are things lining up?
Druid, sorry about the Brady label, I confused you with DMO.
OldD, any info on a buy in? Any large blocks out there? I never make any trades until about 9:50ish so any info would be greatly appreciated.
No problems. The mm > arca have started control with scores of blocks of 1K on the bid side. Yesterday both arca and nsdq were using numerous blocks of 1k on each side to control. They just flushed most of them as I was writing. I know there is a pattern, but I am not able to pick it out.. YET, maybe never! Their sneaky! :(
What do you think about 30k at .133?
Looks like a take down to me. I am going to wait.
Hey I'm here BigBen. Although admittedly Brandon has gotten me a bit nervous with his BK prediction before March 17th. Brandon is big enough that if and when he publically announces his prediction with an article, I'm sure that others will pick up on it and it's only a matter of time before the media jumps on another opportunity to bash SIRI anyway... Like I said I'm long but if I were you I'd definitely think I could jump on a big dip with another looming BK scare... or maybe an actual BK and then we're all screwed
Pats close to signing JOEY GALLOWAY I hear... ha
If your trying to buy arca has about 30 blks of 1k bid at 1312, current ask is going at 1329, so you can probally get in at over the 1312 with no problem. things move fast, so by the time this post the numbers will change.
25k @.1325 lets get it baby!
Filled 25k .1325 looking to unload once this take down is erased. Sometimes you just have a feeling. My new goal on this pig is take anything I can before the 17th. Mel used us and its time we use Mel. Good luck all.
Can we see a .14 handle today....I think so.
What happened to this Big Deal 3 ways to listen thing that came out last week? It cant be total hype, can it? How can you release that type of hype and have NOTHING behind it? Anyone expecting some kind of release on this at all? It seems that any partnership or "new way to listen" would put a damper on all this Bk speculation.
Why would Malone have gotten into this mess if he thought on any level he would just end up in court fighting for his share? Was Malone speculating with his 9 figure investment. No way. He knew what the numbers were before he signed the deal. I cant see BK as being a serious option at this point. Mel would be pissing off alot of people in high places and spending the majority of his time court for the forseeable future if he went BK.
Screw that, Im staying right where I am. 40550 @ .1476. They only thing that will change that is more shares at a lower price.
The markets all over the world are taking the beating that SIRI has already taken. It still stands. In Melly Mel we trust. Mel if your on here, please say something positive bf the 17th, even if you have to lie.
I truly believe we have access to Malones wallet. This guy is no idiot. 15% is amazing but the ultimate endgame is way bigger. We need a rally folks.