Morning back to you, up there in fine sunny Alaska!!! :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Alaska Guy
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Morning back to you, up there in fine sunny Alaska!!! :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Alaska Guy
Yes, very sunny indeed, but a cold 30 degrees outside...brrrrrrrr....still waiting for our first real snowfall....looks like its going to be a snowless Halloween :(Quote:
Originally Posted by billhart22
Sounds like your neck of the woods got hit hard with the weather. We have been experiencing the total opposite up here, warm temps and no snow.
Hi Guys -
Good to see you back Bass -
Been reading these books, and since a lot of great traders played poker, I logged into partypoker last night after reading a little on Hellmuth's book. I couldn't remember the good hands. My GF watches poker on TV, and she entered a tournament one time in Laughlin (she's never really played, other than a few times with friends) and I think she got 2nd or 3rd. She won a prize and was happy about it. She cringed watching me play poker online. I couldn't remember what the good hands were according to the book, so I bet when I was dealt good blackjack hands, ie. stayed in if I was dealt an 18 or above, lol. I kept telling her that the dealer has to stay on 17, and she kept rolling her eyes and hitting me. But I'm up a few dollars with that strategy... I know it's BS.
Regarding SIRI - I think I see what you are talking about... the channel that's been heading down on the daily chart. I can't scp my charts to get them up online today. But using different forms of measure, I have:
conservative - target is height of channel - by breakout time, about 0.75
using a "flag" approach - about 0.81 from the first consolidation point, and 0.88 from the second consolidation point.
But as you guys say, each day the targets lower... I kind of extrapolated these numbers.
The price resistance el supremo's are 0.70 and 1.08.
The 0.70 was broken once for 3 days I think, so it'll be easier to hit those targets. The previous high at about 0.78 could be resistance also.
Anyway, if we are heading up, it's never in a straight line, so I'm just considering anything between those numbers as zig zag time... between 0.70 and 0.88.
Now, the technical good thing is volume has been decreasing throughout the formation of the channel.
The support we have been seeing the last few days is a double-support line I have been yipping about over the last few weeks. I just drew a new fibonacci set on the last set of highs and lows in the channel. A lot of times, prior to a breakout from a channel or triangle, you will head up to the line, and folks will expect a breakout, but then you get a turnaround. It will often be a fibonacci retractment to the 38.2% part. That 38.2% is the double-support line! <-- we'll maybe not so exciting... but it's a good sign. I just find it odd they coincide...we'll that happens a lot though... anyway, that just adds more support for other players... the more folks playing these different things at the exact same price is good - it makes it stronger. But on the flipside, if it breaks... then it'll break harder and make resistance.
What I'm watching, and why I have been quiet is the general market. A while back I posted a bunch of numbers... things are turning around here.. but everytime things looked bleak there was a rally. That's the tricky thing... all the way up when the indexes would start turning around at key points, there would be a rally, most, including me would get bearish, but what you are supposed to do is buy on those points. Now that I feel like buying those points, it's likely that they will fail... that's how it goes. I did buy on the gold pullback... but held off on the ships at this point. I want to see confirmation.
Also, a lot of leading stocks seem to be doing what we call "blow off tops" - ie. AAPL, GOOG, etc. AAPL hit its previous high... penetrating it and moving a little higher is ultra bullish, but if it turns, it's not so hot. GOOG was in a massive channel, and blew out of it.
The bullish percent index on the nasdaq isn't too hot, crossed below 70, but that of the NYA is actually turning up and above 70. The NYMO hit a bottom, and is headed up... so a lot of mixed action - which is typical when you have these retractments. The thing is to wait and be ready for the direction.
Uh oh... gotta sell someting.. back in a minute
I made a fresh chart -
Is this the formation you guys are talking about?
I have a channel in blue. Different measuring techniques are in different colors:
1) black - most conservative - just a rise based on the channel
2) green - kind of a conservative, using last consolidation
3) dark blue - going back to the 0.35 mark.
Note the times that each started (cases 2, 3), expect about as much time to hit the target, unless it goes parabolic up.
The red lines are just resistance lines.
The purple fibonacci in there marked by arrows for start and end points, is what you use if there is a pullback before a breakout. can see the 38.2% mark is 0.57, which is our double support line - so now it's a triple support line.
Aggressive trading in anticipation of moving out of the channel would be buying around 0.57 (get a better stop that way, if you use them, next level would be just above 0.61, since this is above the 61.8. More conservative is after it breaks the blue upline.. but then have to adjust a stop.
Market tanks, and we could head to about 0.45, lol. Though, have to look at the other chart.
http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri17/SIRI-1.png
Here's my regular chart - I noted the channel in light blue. I know this one is noisy.. but it's my main one.
I actually reached the allowed limit of crap I can draw on it, so deleted previous comments... but nothing is really knew on it, other than the pullback into the channel, which is normal.
Lot of nervous nellies in the market today. I bought up on the gold stocks during this downturn. Gold shot up as soon as the market closed. However, stock futures haven't moved much, but perhaps will, as there was a job recovery report that just came out a minute ago.
http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri17/SIRI-2.png
This is what has me concerned Dr. D. I posted on the other thread some time back about the .45-.46 gap as being the last gap that SIRI had to get past if it was to fill all it's 1 cent or more gaps since recovering from almost BK status.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Dave
Well, let's just say I hope Monday is the start of the run up because if the markets do indeed tank again, and SIRI follows suit, then we got some scared rabbits chasing the SIRI doggie this time. lol Your opinion on my .45-.46 gap opinion would be nice to hear. Thx.
I take it you are referring to the gap at the end of July heading into August?Quote:
Originally Posted by S50Fan
Ok, a couple of things.
1) Not every technical event or observation is guaranteed. So, that means whatever you are looking at - say a breakout from a pattern, or following some moving average cross, or filling gaps for that matter, aren't all going to happen. Some give good probabilities, but you have to be ready for them to be wrong too - which is where money management, and stops come into play. So, one could calculate how often gaps get filled, but it isn't going to be 100%.
2) There are two kinds of gaps - those occuring when the prices are breaking out to new (where "new" is also kind of a relative term, unless you literally are at all time new highs or lows) highs or lows, these are considered to be more significant to a lot of traders. And there are internal gaps, where prices recently covered that area, and are considered less significant.
So - I marked where I would consider the new low gaps to be in red, the new high gaps in green, and internal gaps in blue, and the gap I think you are referring to in black. Here's a little more grey - SIRI is pretty volatile, and will be as long as it's in penny land, so the tails can get a little bit in the way, that said, some of the gaps I marked for the new highs have a little overlap. We'd have to zoom in on another time frame and look at the number of shares traded to see how strong the tails are...
http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri17/SIRI-gap.png
But long story short - that's an internal gap - which many consider a little less significant - it could get filled, but maybe not. 11/12 gaps I marked are filled, so that's over 90%. I'm not saying it won't be filled, and in fact, if the price does retreat to the bottom of that channel, it likely will be. We just have to wait and see... breakout upward, or continue in the channel down (or worse case scenario - breakdown out of the channel). All possibilities exist. Looking at the charts and thinking about SIRI only, it looks bullish to me as long was we stay above that double-support line from here on out, and with the volatility - I mean don't close below the line.
This is where proper positioning comes into play - at least for technical trading and money management. Example, I'm weighted enough in SIRI as it is, I also have a gain on my current buy, and even though some of the shares were free, I don't want to give them up. So, if the support breaks with a close underneath, I'm ok with letting them go. No way would I hold and let my profit go and average down. I can buy again later.
If it rally's up, I could maybe add a little, but not a lot, I don't want to overweight myself in a single stock. So in that case, I'll only add if I see a breakout. Today would be a better entry if I had no position, but since I do, and I'm weighted about as much as I think I need to be, there's no point in taking the risk.
Ah - here's something... use your charting software and add 1/2 the indicators... they usually won't all give the same signal. In fact, you change the time frames, and you can use the same indicator and get different overbought/oversold conditions.
So, I guess I'm trying to say, yeah, there's a gap there, but worry more attention to the price of the stock first, where the sector and market are headed, along with where your buy is.
All the rest of the stuff - indicators, gaps, patterns, etc. are secondary and not all 100% guaranteed, lol. Great question though. I got burned on trying to time filling a gap a while back on PCLN, took bass along for the ride too.
Hey thx for replying there Dr Dave, and going into so much detail with the chart. Much appreciated. Yes, I was speaking about the dreaded gap on 8/3. I actually wondered that if the sell off a couple weeks ago when SIRI hit the .51 range was gonna be the trigger to get this .45 gap finally filled and move up from there, but sure enough, the stock rallied from that point on and it didn't go into the .40s.
SIRI has always filled it's gaps of .01 or more below it's current trading price ever since I've been following it 6 years ago. All gaps below except that damn .45 gap. LOL It's strange to see, and I know all stocks don't do this, but this one has. In short, here is most of my post from back in August, in replying to a gap relmor2003 asked about, and as to why I've always been leery of SIRI filling it's gaps...
So, what price would you say is good for putting in a stop on the way down to .46 in the next few days if it does indeed go that way? And let's hope it doesn't!Quote:
Originally Posted by S50Fan
Hey Bill
No thanks to you, got my buy at .955 on ONCF!
Now if QASP,BCLE,LFBG,SPNG will just cooperate and move north just long enough for all of us to put a bullett into them!
Damn...how could I forget about MIGGLE...have had a standing sell order @.0003...not even a nibble!
I hope all of you D-bags have a great W/E! Julie...you have a nice W/E as well!
jeff
LOL, if you've been at it that long, then you know the gaps better than me.Quote:
Originally Posted by S50Fan
Anyway, the stops depend on where you want to take your money if that's the angle you want to play. Right now, the market hasn't turned to the downside yet. The US dollar is still in its channel. Gold was following stocks, but rallied hard after the close, showing that even with its big turndown, with GLD hitting almost filling a gap. There was a lot of whipsaw for leverged traders - futures and such, so we need to sit tight, see which way it goes, and like previously, I can also see a whipsaw below the index support lines, like previous to march in the big descending triangle. We could get a rally now to make sort of a head and shoulders. If we get that, I'd bet there would still be an extra rally, as that happened previously also, since that pattern is so well known.
I think right now for me, a close near 0.55 is good enough. I can always buy again, I'd like to see the volume though, and close it EOD. A lot of gold stocks looked doomed today, but in the last 30 mins had recovered. I like stopping out on closes more than setting one up for a tail.
I finally downloaded an app to write on the screen - it's pretty cool, and it looks like you can script it too to add features... like one, I don't like holding down the trackpad button to write, so will have to figure that out... but now I can draw stuff like bases... there isn't a free hand drawing tool at stockcharts.
http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri17/SIRI-write.png
Also, by starting with a clean chart - I marked that trendline... I actually don't like it when prices linger on a trendline... monday should be interesting to see if the line holds or doesn't. I'd rather see a clean bounce with a reversal candle. Appears we have yet another form of support here in this line, besides all the ones I mentioned, so if it gets taken out, I'm likely out. I'll give it 2 days I figure if the first drop down is small.
You can type on screen with this app too - but it's more obnoxious to free hand it.
Also - for Mr. Rams, I found a file renaming app - may be handy for your pictures. Apparently, it'll pretest before it does it. I'll try to find it if you're interested. But basically, you can go into a directory and from what I see change..
DSCN001.tif
DSCN002.tif
DSCN003.tif
to
Mabel_Jones1.tif
Mabel_Jones2.tif
Mabel_Jones3.tif
I think it's free too.
dr. dAVE thanks for your T/A.. just amazing!!!!
there are quite a few professional poker players who were traders. and 1 of my friends actually went from playing poker to being offered (and accepting) a 300k a year job working for a hedge fund. my friend played in a high stakes home game in manhattan with the owner of the hedge fund. the owner was impressed with my friend's analytic skills and gave him a job. sick!!!!!
if you're interested in learning to play poker then i suggest you read DAVID SKLANSKY's book THEORY OF POKER. it is probably the best book ever written for the game. another great book is DAN HARRINGTON's- HARRINGTON ON HOLD EM.
sklansky gives the mathematical approach to playing poker, i dont see you encountering any problems learning from him (most people cant decipher or understand the formulas he uses in understanding hand strength, etc.) please read this book and let me know what you think.
dave, i had assumed the pole would begin at the break out point. thanks for correcting me. it begins at the bottom of the flag channel. good to know. so that would lower my short term target to roughly the same as yours. and i do remember we discussed a longer term target of 1.08, hopefully this will be achieved not too long after the conference call. but like you said, and i agree with 100%, if the market tanks, we're headed back down too:(
i see the cup& handle formations the past 2 quarters and i am praying we complete it again this quarter. then i could dump my march $1calls (i have added alot this week @#.10) for $$$,$$$ :) , otherwise, longterm this stock is still trading in an uptrend and metrics/fundamentals just keep getting better. dave are you still holding long term, or are you trading?
I'll get those books - at least for the girlfriend... I'm having enough trouble keeping up with the stocks, not sure if I need to add in another addiction. I stayed up pretty late going against the training mode on that party poker game. I got my girlfriend pretty good, I pointed to one of the players on the screen and said, "I just can't figure out this guy's tell". She says, "he's a friggin' computer image that doesn't move you dork". Anyway, I can see why poker players like the stock market, and vice versa. That story about your friend is awesome. I like it cause I need to get out from underneath my boss, lol. But also, I thank you for sharing it, because I need to really focus on keeping myself from gambling on stocks, and following my gameplans. I did a really bad one the other day... I actually posted a play here on FSLR - buying a call and put. I had time to buy the call the other day, not the put, but could buy the put the following day. Had I done so, my loss would have been limited to say maybe $25-50, but let's say $100 max. The play cost $720. But for whatever reason, I went into gambling mode, picked only the call, as I was pretty sure earnings would be good. So paid $360, and expected $1000 in return. It went the other way. The put ended up going from $360 (they were the same price - the call and the put) to $1100. The call can only go to $5, but ended up going to $25. So we do the math....Quote:
Originally Posted by bassmaster
If I did what I said to do...
$360 call + $360 put = $720.
After earnings
$25 call, so loss of -$335.
$1100 put, so gain of +$740
therefore
-335 + 740 = $405 gain off of a max $100 risk... that's an actual, not calculated, 4:1 risk reward.
What did I do.... just 1/2 of the play, only bought the call...
-335 loss so, basically lost it all, for what would have been about a $740 gain if it went in my direction, so had a 2:1 risk reward.
Better yet, was the warning signs.... the fool and a few other big news opps were bullish on solar. That was a warning flag and a half, and I knew it.
I'm printing out the chart and hanging it up on a few walls, as a reminder to lower risk, I have a tendency to get risky when my account is up, or playing with a lot of "house" money, but house money is your money, and you have to protect it. It's important to always play like your account is down.
Posting this loss is a good idea I figure, as when I post, it hammers in what I should and shouldn't do.
At least I didn't do it big... so the money management part is ok. PCLN may be another stock to do this strategy, so when the time comes...
Ok - when measuring a flag, some guys take the first pole up to the bottom of the flag, and put that on top of the breakout point, some take the entire pole and put that on top of the breakout point. I put the pole (which includes the whole flag) on the bottom of the flag pattern instead of on the breakout point... so basically - it represents, geometry wise, the first scenario - the same distance as taking the pole without the flag part, and placing the measure from the top of the flag. By doing it the way I did it, it was just quicker to draw... is that explanation clear?Quote:
Originally Posted by bassmaster
The first reason I didn't add in the distance of the flag into the measure, is that one day I drew out all the patterns I saw on SIRI starting from it's collapse... the flags work in both directions, and during the bear market, the moves didn't include the flag distance if I recall, I think I still have the chart or I can draw it out for you.
The second reason is that, this actually isn't a flag, it's a channel.
The distinguishing feature between flags+pennants, and channels+triangles, is time. Flags and pennants work off of quick run-ups, the consolidation that forms the pennants and flags is generally about 2 weeks or less - so about 10 candles or bars, give or take... in this case, the event is still fresh in everyone's minds and the next move corresponds with all the thinking that made the first move, ie. a little extra PR, or say, we ran up a little bit prior to a quarterly report, did a little consolidation, then the quarterly is coming out a within the week, and you get a little run.
For channels and triangles.. the time is more drawn out... this pattern has been going on for about 2 1/2 months... so what's driving the price is different from what happened a few months ago. Channels usually move the width of the channel, so what I have in black... but... I've seen channel runs also that have are similar to what we have here... where the move is symmetrical from the prior consolidation. I think I can find one I already posted...
http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri15/GOOG.png
In this case, goog actually blew out of the channel afterward, but you can see what I mean.
Overall though, we have a bunch of things at hand with SIRI... we have that big trendline I drew (so there are players looking at just that - will it bounce or will it plunge), we have multiple forms of support at about 0.57/0.58 (so have different players watching each one of those... and they are at the same exact point of that trendline), we have a channel play again with the same pullback within the channel that usually is a bounce point prior to breakout... but also, after breaking down, will bring us down the channel - basically to that gap).
Go long/go short... this is one of those pivot points. The average guy can't go short - most online brokerages have a price limit - say $5 to short, so then it's in the hands of pros.
Treat this goog chart as if it were a flag and a channel, do the measure, you'll see you would have measured close to the $460 mark on the smaller run in both cases... I'll draw it out a little later.. when I draw out the measure, I look at some point of resistance on the upside, and assume the price will fall just short of that for profit taking...
That's what we did for RTGV, and what Ramsey and I did to get the 0.62 sell on siri back in april. Doing the same thing we were set to cut out of SIRI again at 0.72 (thanks to the gap), but we held since our new shares were bought under that shareholder's rights deal in case of a sell out, so I held, and he's longer term. I'm not worried about the deal anymore, just want the money, lol.
Ah, you posted when I posted. I was just saying I held on last time when it got up to 0.70. That was my target, but held on cause the shares I bought were pre-may 11, where you supposedly get $2 a share if there is a buyout.. but I remember when my mom's company got bought out.. the share price ran up to the buy out price anyway. Once the pattern's form, I'm looking for $1.08 for another upside target... depending on what the patterns are, I'd likely cut out, and rebuy later on the next consolidation. I like the stock, and so far, it's been good to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by bassmaster
dave, thanks alot for all your posts. i really do appreciate it a great deal. and i learn so much from each one. now im just mad you posted that google chart because i wish i had money available for some itm puts. grrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!! jldkfbhvdfkjvnsdvnsdkjvndskjvkds!!!!!!!!!!
Does D-bags stand for douche bags? (lol). Well, we can come clean out of any situation. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by just sirius
Wait a minute....first I took the bullet for the gang and now I am a douche bag, that suckered and hypnotically suggested that you buy OCNF for .995? No prob..it will go up and so will BCLE. I told you to buy it in the .80's, but blame me for the .90's! That's o.k., I know where and what my position is..lol!
I hope that you have a great weekend!
B.